Beijing's housing market hit a high in October: the transaction volume and price of new homes soared by more than 30%, and second-hand homes also saw a concurrent increase of 8%.

In the past October, driven by the implementation of interest subsidy policies and the advancement of detailed rules for existing home sales, the activity of the national real estate market rebounded significantly.

According to CRIC data, the transaction area of new commercial residential buildings in 50 key national cities in October was about 11.41 million ㎡, up 4.5% month-on-month. Although it decreased year-on-year, the decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. Looking at the second-hand housing market, the transaction area of 20 key national cities was about 14.61 million ㎡, up 3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase as high as 20.4%.

Among the four first-tier cities, Beijing delivered the most outstanding overall performance. It is the only city that recorded double year-on-year growth in the transaction areas of both new homes and second-hand homes, with both increases hovering around 30%.

Source: CRIC

01

First, let's talk about the new home market in Beijing.

According to JINGLOU data, 4,476 new homes (commercial residential buildings) in Beijing were signed online in October, up 46.23% from October last year. At the same time, the average transaction price of new homes was 57,192 yuan/㎡, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.55%. To a certain extent, this also indicates that the sharp rise in transaction volume in Beijing cannot be separated from the moderate support on the price side -- trading volume at the expense of appropriate price cuts.

The slight drop in unit price, coupled with the sharp rise in transaction volume, made the total transaction value of new homes in Beijing reach 29.597 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase as high as 33.82%.

The accelerated pace on the supply side is an important factor contributing to this round of "rising transaction volume and stable prices" market in Beijing. Since late September, multiple projects including Longyue Jingxu and Xiyue Jingyan have opened for sale intensively, driving the supply to a peak, with 5,350 new units supplied in September. Entering October, although the new supply fell back to 1,580 units, the year-on-year increase still exceeded 92%.

The continuously implemented policy dividends have further activated home purchase demand. For example, the substantial increase in the provident fund loan limit has directly reduced the monthly mortgage pressure of home buyers; the implementation of existing home sales has alleviated home buyers' concerns about future delivery to a certain extent, and the public's willingness to purchase properties has been enhanced.

According to the online signing statistics from JINGLOU, districts including Tongzhou, Changping and Haidian are the hot spots of Beijing's real estate market in October.

Among them, Tongzhou ranked first in the city's transaction volume with 911 units, and the two projects of Shoukai Xiyue Jingyan (314 units) and China Merchants Huying Tianqing (202 units) in Songzhuang accounted for nearly 60% of the total online signing volume of Tongzhou. Changping (753 units) and Daxing (615 units) followed closely, mainly driven by properties in the region such as Xinghuan Shiguang and Weilai Yuanzhu. The transaction volume of districts including Haidian, Shijingshan and Shunyi also basically approached 400 units.

Source: JINGLOU

Looking at individual projects, the sales champion by transaction value in October is undoubtedly Yunhai Yunsong in Haidian. With a unit price of over 100,000 yuan, its monthly sales of 3.122 billion yuan intuitively demonstrate the solid purchasing power of the improved demand groups in Haidian. Xiyue Jingyan in Tongzhou took the first place in the number of transaction units of the month with 314 online signed units.

It is not difficult to see from these best-selling projects that advantages such as favorable price, high-quality product and complete supporting facilities often overlap. It is this strong comprehensive strength that makes them stand out from the competition.

Taking Xinghuan Shiguang in Future City as an example, which won the first place in the ordinary residential transaction value in October, it is only about 300 meters away from Zhuxinzhuang Station of Line 8, a well-deserved subway-adjacent property. Mature commercial facilities such as Wanda Plaza and Super Hopson One nearby have been put into operation, and supporting facilities including hospitals and schools are also available, making life very convenient. In terms of price, its online signing price of about 56,000 yuan/㎡ is lower than the previous general unit price of over 60,000 yuan for new properties in this sector. Coupled with product advantages such as 91%-105% space utilization rate and fourth-generation residence design, it is not surprising that it has become a popular property in the area.

At the end of October, Poly Jinghua Yao located at Taipingqiao on the Second Ring Road and C&D Yueguan Xi located at Dongxiaokou in Changping opened for sale one after another. In addition to popular selling points such as fourth-generation residence design and high space utilization rate, the raised slab design has also become a new highlight. According to official announced data, both projects performed well at their first opening: Poly Jinghua Yao achieved strong sales of 3.2 billion yuan, and C&D Yueguan Xi recorded nearly 4.2 billion yuan in subscriptions, with an inventory digestion rate of about 75%.

Entering November, the subscription data will be converted into online signing one after another. Can these two popular projects contribute to the new home transaction data in November?

02

Next, let's look at the second-hand housing market.

According to data from Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in October, 13,081 second-hand residential properties were traded in Beijing, marking the second highest figure for the same period in six years, up 8.22% year-on-year from last year.

Source: Jingfangzi

Although it dropped by 16.98% compared with the 15,800 units in September, October included a seven-day National Day holiday, which directly reduced the number of trading days in the month and affected the full-month data. If converted to average weekly transaction volume, the performance in October is actually better than that in September. The monitoring data from Lianjia also confirms this point: as reported, the actual signed transaction volume of Lianjia in October achieved a slight month-on-month increase.

Not only did the performance in the single month of October stand out, but when looking at a longer cycle, the overall second-hand housing market in Beijing has continued to be warm this year. According to statistics, in the first ten months, the cumulative online signing volume of second-hand housing in Beijing exceeded 150,000 units, hitting a new high for the same period in the past five years.

Different from the new home market that relies on concentrated supply to boost transaction volume, the continued warmth of the second-hand housing market is more driven by the release of real home purchase demand: first-time home buyers entering the market, improved homeowners selling old properties to buy new ones, the stock properties are continuously digested, and the transaction rhythm remains stable.

Behind this is the quiet change in market sentiment. Since August, a number of policies have been implemented one after another. Although they have not brought an explosive home purchase boom, they have gradually weakened the wait-and-see sentiment of home buyers. According to a survey by Beijing Business Today, small-sized second-hand housing units in Beijing are very popular recently, and the transaction cycle has continued to shorten.

In the last two months of the year, supported by demand such as property replacement, the second-hand housing market is very likely to maintain the current trend and draw a full stop for the annual market with steady transaction performance.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Future Habitat", author: Future Habitat, published by 36Kr with authorization.