Over the next 10 years, it will become increasingly difficult for this group of people to find jobs.

A few days ago, I watched an interview between Li Feifei and David Rogier, CEO of MasterClass.

During the conversation, the two of them mentioned a thought-provoking observation: in the next 10 years, a "barbell effect" is emerging in the workplace.

At one end of the barbell are the top 1% of leading experts; at the other end are highly proactive generalists who can manage multiple tasks at the same time. The space for those in the middle who are "just passable" is shrinking sharply.

I fully agree with this view, as it is a fact that is already taking place.

With years of experience in management consulting, I have met too many "just passable" people: they make no mistakes but never stand out; they are never late but never work overtime; they can deliver the tasks assigned to them, but the work they produce could be done by anyone.

In the past, such people could get by, because companies were pursuing scale, headcount, and "distributing work to more people".

But in the next 10 years, it will be increasingly difficult for this group of people to find jobs.

01

Become one of the top 10% or be eliminated

Let's first look at the "barbell effect" mentioned by Li Feifei and Rogier.

Why a barbell, not any other shape? Because AI is hollowing out the "middle zone" of the workplace.

Rogier gave an example in the interview: for a "just passable" article writer, almost anyone can do a decent job now with a large language model. But if you are the best copywriter in the world, or among the top 1%, you cannot be easily replaced.

This statement is harsh, but very true.

The biggest impact of AI falls exactly on those who are "doing fine", "so-so" or "good enough". Because AI has raised the standard of execution to an extremely high level.

The benefits you used to get from "being able to do the work" can now be reaped by AI, which can even do the work better, faster and at lower cost.

Therefore, the workplace in the next 10 years will increasingly resemble a barbell: either you reach the top, or you are versatile enough, and the space for those in the middle who are "not as good as the top but better than the bottom" will get smaller and smaller.

Then who are the people at the two ends of the barbell?

One end is made up of top experts. Li Feifei says these are people who "make the most of augmentation". AI helps them filter out 90% of repetitive work, so they can focus their energy on the 10% of work that most requires human judgment. Their value is not reduced, but released.

The other end is made up of highly proactive generalists. These people can manage many things at the same time, with strong judgment and execution capabilities, and they know when to seek cooperation with top experts. They get their hands dirty, build their own tools, and define their own workflows. They are not waiting for an augmented future, they themselves are the starting point of augmentation.

As you can see, whether you want to be an expert or a generalist, there is still a way out. The group that really has no way out is the middle layer that stays at the "just passable" level.

02

It's not that the job needs you, it's that you need the job

After talking about the structure, let's discuss a more fundamental issue: the relationship between supply and demand.

Many people have not yet realized that in the AI era, the relationship between people and jobs has completely changed.

In the past, there were many jobs and few suitable candidates. If you had the ability and experience, companies would compete to hire you. You could choose jobs, companies and salaries. At that time, it was the job that needed you.

But now, in the AI era, the number of jobs is decreasing, while the number of people in need of jobs is increasing.

AI has replaced a large number of middle-layer positions. One person working with AI can complete the work that used to require ten people. The number of jobs is decreasing, but every year a large number of graduates pour into the workplace, and a large number of people replaced by AI need to find new jobs.

Supply exceeds demand, and jobs have become a scarce resource.

At this point, it is no longer the case that the job needs you, but that you need the job. You need this job to support your family and realize your self-worth. If you don't take it, there are plenty of people eager to take it.

In the AI era, no one is irreplaceable. The reason why you think you are irreplaceable is that you have not yet encountered the AI that can replace you. When AI becomes more capable and less costly, you will find that all the work you do can be done by AI, and AI can do it better, faster and cheaper than you.

So what should you do? You need to take the initiative to create value, instead of waiting to be assigned tasks.

Li Feifei says that the word "entrepreneur" is, to a large extent, a synonym for "proactivity". She also believes that everyone can be an "entrepreneur" in their own field.

What does that mean? It means that you can no longer regard yourself as an assigned executor, but as the person in charge of your own destiny. The boundaries of work are being returned from organizations to individuals.

If you don't take the initiative, no one will help you keep your job secure.

03

What traits should talents possess in the AI era?

Then, what traits exactly should talents have in the AI era? I have summarized four points.

1. Proactive

Why is proactivity so important? Because in the AI era, there is no room for survival for people who "wait for assignments".

In the past, in the industrial era, you could wait for assignments. You did what your leader told you to do, and that was enough. Because at that time, work was standardized and procedural, you did not need to think actively, you only needed to execute.

But in the AI era, execution work is done by AI. What humans need to do is the work that AI cannot do. For example, actively identifying problems, actively defining problems, actively finding solutions, and actively promoting implementation. These things cannot be done by people who lack proactivity.

If you are not proactive, no one will be proactive for you; if you wait to be assigned, you will be replaced by AI.

2. Extremely open-minded

What does it mean to be extremely open-minded? It means not being closed, resistant or stubborn, and being willing to embrace new things, new tools, new methods and new fields.

In the AI era, changes happen extremely fast. The new tool today may become outdated tomorrow; the new method today may be overturned the day after tomorrow; the field you are good at today may no longer exist next year.

At this time, the most fearful thing is to be closed-minded, stubborn and unwilling to accept new things.

I have met many people, especially those with certain seniority, who are extremely resistant to new things. When AI comes, they either don't know how to use it, or disdain to use it. Usually at such times, I advise them to turn to young people and learn how to use AI from them.

A truly open-minded person is willing to learn from young people, put down their pride from past experience, and constantly update their cognition. Closed-minded people hold onto old maps, while open-minded people draw new maps.

Open-mindedness is a survival instinct in the AI era. Only by being open-minded can you keep up with the times.

3. Superb learning ability

In the AI era, the half-life of knowledge is getting shorter and shorter. What you learn today may become outdated in half a year; the skills you master today may be replaced by AI in a year.

In this environment, what you learned in the past is no longer important; what matters is whether you can quickly learn new things.

This is the superb learning ability. It is not how much knowledge you have already mastered, but how fast you can acquire new knowledge and new skills. When you encounter a new problem, can you learn quickly and find a solution?

People with strong learning ability thrive in the AI era. Because AI itself is a super learning tool, AI can help you no matter what you want to learn. With strong learning ability plus the leverage of AI, you can quickly enter any new field and master any new skill. You will never be eliminated, because you are constantly updating yourself.

The competition in the future is not competition of knowledge, but competition of learning speed. The faster you learn, the more ahead you are; the slower you learn, the more behind you fall.

Remember that superb learning ability is one of the most core competitiveness in the AI era.

4. Human-AI collaboration capability

In the AI era, what you need to do is not to compete with AI, but to master AI, collaborate with AI, and use AI to amplify your capabilities.

I visited a company some time ago. The work that used to require hundreds of people can now be done well by a few people plus more than a dozen Agents. The value of employees is not reduced, but released.

What is the core of human-AI collaboration? It is that you know what to hand over to AI, and what to do by yourself.

Standardized, repetitive and basic work is handed over to AI, which can complete it quickly and well. Work that requires judgment, creativity and emotional connection is done by yourself, because these are what AI cannot do, and are the core value of human beings.

The stronger your ability to master AI, the greater the leverage of your capability, and the greater the value you can create.

Finally, to sum up: in the next 10 years, you will either become a top expert and make a living by your professional judgment, or be extremely proactive and make a living by your creativity and integration capability. Those in the middle who are neither top nor bottom, and are just passable, will find it increasingly difficult to get a job. But you also need to understand that technology is always a tool. What really sets people apart has never been AI itself, but whether you are willing to keep growing and take the initiative to control your own life.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Zhang Lijun", the author is Zhang Lijun, and it is published with authorization from 36Kr.