Shanghai's nine batches of land auctions have released a signal that exceeds expectations.

As the second land auction after the 828 existing home new policy, Shanghai's ninth batch of land auctions still delivered signals exceeding market expectations.

This unexpected signal came from the low-density residential plot in Pudong Jinqiao, where 5 real estate enterprises competed for 143 rounds, with a premium rate reaching 30%.

The differentiation of land auction popularity has already emerged at the registration stage: the Huangpu Laoximen plot, due to its small size and partial commercial self-holding requirement, only China Overseas Land & Investment submitted one registration, and finally COLI acquired the core plot within the inner ring with a total price of about 3.888 billion yuan and a comprehensive floor price of about 96,900 yuan per square meter; the pure residential plot in Jing'an Daning attracted 2 bidding entities, and after 78 rounds of bidding, it was won by the Xiamen Xiangyu & C&D Group consortium at about 7.05 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 5.48%.

The three plots in this batch cover three market gradients: the core area within the inner ring, the improvement belt between the inner and middle ring, and the Pudong industry-city integration zone, with a total transaction value of about 12.91 billion yuan.

After the implementation of the existing home new policy, real estate enterprises are required to purchase land with their own funds and prioritize existing home sales, which increases their capital pressure. Whether the core plots within the inner ring are transacted at the base price, or the mature improvement sectors between the inner and middle ring see rational bidding, real estate enterprises as a whole remain restrained and cautious in land acquisition at present, and low-density residential plots with low total price, safety and controllability have become the focus of competition among developers.

01

The core plot with no supply in the inner ring for ten years

Was it "picked up at a bargain" by COLI?

The 271A-03 plot in Huangpu Laoximen, as a residential plot that has not been supplied in the core area of Huangpu for more than ten years, is also the only commercial residential plot located within the inner ring in this batch.

The Laoximen sector where the plot is located is Shanghai's traditional core mature residential area, adjacent to the Xizang Road municipal north-south development corridor, with commercial, educational and medical resources all ranking in the top tier of the whole city, adjacent to benchmark luxury residential projects such as Casa Riviera, and has formed a stable high-end living atmosphere after more than ten years of development.

However, this plot is also the smallest plot in this batch, with an area of only about 8,500 square meters, a plot ratio of 4.7, a total starting price of 3.888 billion yuan, and a starting floor price of 96,900 yuan per square meter. After excluding 10% of the self-held commercial and public service facility building area, the starting price of pure residential units is 108,700 yuan per square meter.

In the end, COLI won the plot at the base price. This is the second move of China Overseas Land & Investment in Shanghai's public market this year. On August 31, COLI won the core complex plot in Zhenru at the base price with a total price of 15.02 billion yuan, and the total land acquisition amount in Shanghai's public market this year reached 18.9 billion yuan.

The reason why only COLI submitted a registration for this plot is largely that the project is small in size and has many restrictive conditions, which puts high requirements on the strength of the developer. Two rounds of planning index adjustments were completed before the plot was listed, the plot ratio was lowered to 4.7, the building height limit was synchronously reduced to 80 meters, the building area subject to plot ratio was reduced by about 4,875 square meters, and the conservation and protection of an ungraded immovable cultural relic on the plot was required.

The overall profit margin of the project is controllable, for two reasons:

First, the project value has solid market support. The supply of commercial residential properties in the Laoximen sector has shrunk in recent years. Since 2006, the peak supply of commercial residential properties in the sector was concentrated in 2019, and no new commercial residential properties have entered the market since 2026. The existing housing stock in the sector is dominated by large-sized improvement products, with the 150-180 square meter segment accounting for 27%. The sector has long been dominated by high-end improvement and ultimate improvement demands. The transfer of this plot not only fills the long-standing gap in residential land supply in the sector, but the adjusted product positioning is also highly consistent with the high-end background of the existing market, so the market has certain demand support.

Second, the average listing price of second-hand properties in the adjacent areas is generally in the range of 180,000 to 200,000 yuan per square meter. New projects that entered the market in recent years such as Casa Riviera Phase 6 and Zoujin Huayuan have all achieved rapid deoxidization. The market's acceptance of high-end residential properties in the core area remains at a high level, and there will be a reasonable price gradient between the pricing of the project after it enters the market and the surrounding benchmark second-hand properties.

02

Bidding for the Jing'an Daning plot is restrained

C&D Group teams up with Xiangyu to replenish land reserves

The Jing'an Daning plot is the largest residential plot in this batch, with a floor area of about 101,300 square meters, and it is also the pure residential plot with the largest residential volume in Jing'an in the past five years.

The plot attracted 2 bidding entities to participate in the on-site bidding, namely the Xiangyu & C&D Group consortium, and the China Merchants Shekou & Nanshan & Binjiang & Nantong Ruicheng consortium.

Enterprises' value judgment still focuses on the core improvement sectors. For high-total-price plots in core sectors, joint land acquisition by real estate enterprises has become the mainstream. In this bidding, in addition to Xiangyu and C&D Group, four real estate enterprises including China Merchants Shekou, Nanshan, Binjiang and Nantong Ruicheng formed a consortium, and private enterprise Binjiang also appeared in Shanghai's land auction market.

Finally, after 78 rounds of bidding, the plot was won by C&D Group in partnership with Xiangyu at a total price of 7.05 billion yuan, with a transaction floor price of 69,614 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 5.48%. However, the overall bidding pace was relatively restrained, with small increments as the main trend.

This is the second land acquisition of C&D Group in Daning this year. At the fifth batch of land auctions at the end of June this year, C&D Group won a residential plot in Daning after 168 rounds of bidding at a total price of nearly 7.3 billion yuan. The transaction floor price of this supplementary plot in Daning is 12,000 yuan per square meter lower than the previous one.

Compared with the currently on-sale projects, the China State Construction Jiushang Langchen near the sector had a previous land acquisition floor price of about 68,300 yuan per square meter, and the average selling price of high-rise units is about 136,000 yuan per square meter; the Dahua Jing'an Nianhua had a land acquisition floor price as high as 92,700 yuan per square meter, with an average selling price of about 130,000 yuan per square meter.

The transaction floor price of the Daning plot this time is 69,614 yuan per square meter, and the land acquisition cost is significantly lower than that of the Dahua project, which is in a similar range to the China State Construction project. The pricing space after entering the market in the future is relatively sufficient. It is expected that the main house types will cover the 110-140 square meter improvement segment, the profit margin is in a reasonable range. In addition, the supply in the sector is scarce and based on the mature customer base for improvement, the deoxidization safety is strong.

Location and surrounding situation of Jing'an Daning Plot

03

CITIC Pacific won the Jinqiao plot after 143 rounds of bidding

Real estate enterprises bet on low-density residential plots with high safety

The Pudong Jinqiao plot is the pure residential plot with the lowest plot ratio in this batch, with a plot ratio of only 1.8, a total starting price of 1.521 billion yuan, and it is also the most popular plot in this round, with a premium rate of 30%.

The plot attracted a total of 5 bidders: CITIC Pacific Properties, Yuexiu, China Merchants, Jinmao, and Greentown & Zhejiang Communications Investment & Xizi. Finally, after 143 rounds of bidding, it was won by CITIC Pacific Properties, with a total transaction price of 1.972 billion yuan and an average floor price of 52,000 yuan per square meter.

The plot is within the radiation scope of Jinqiao intelligent manufacturing industrial cluster, with a large number of science and innovation enterprises and industrial employment population gathered around, which is a typical area of Pudong's industry-city integrated development. The plot is close to the stations of Metro Line 9, Line 12 and Line 14, with high convenience for daily commuting and cross-regional travel, and has strong attraction for industrial employees.

Location and surrounding situation of Pudong Jinqiao Plot

Looking at the surrounding projects, as a three-track TOD complex project, the average entry price of Pudong Shangcheng is about 60,000 yuan per square meter; the Tomson Junpin in Biyun sector is positioned as a high-end improvement project, with an average selling price of about 82,500 yuan per square meter; the previously sold-out Pukai Yunjing project had an average price of about 90,000 yuan per square meter. The average price of second-hand properties in the sector is about 49,000 yuan per square meter, and there is a clear price gap between new properties and second-hand properties.

At the same time, the supply of low-density improvement products in the sector is relatively scarce. The supply of this low-density residential plot can fill the gap of low-density products in the sector. Relying on the stable base of industrial population, the deoxidization of the project has solid demand support.

Conclusion

After the 828 existing home new policy, two land auctions in Shanghai have confirmed that in the existing home era, high-quality low-density residential plots remain highly popular. The 1.8 plot ratio low-density residential plot in Jinqiao this time has a premium rate of 30%; the 1.2 plot ratio low-density pure residential plot in Sijing in the eighth batch has a premium rate of over 16%. The reason is that the construction period of low-density multi-story products is generally controllable, and some real estate enterprises have been able to complete the rough completion and filing of small high-rise and multi-story products within 12-18 months.

At the same time, joint land acquisition has become the norm. For example, for the Jing'an Daning plot this time, all participating real estate enterprises are consortia. The capital cost of independent land acquisition by a single entity is rising and the cycle is lengthening. In the future, project cooperation and consortium land acquisition will become a more common choice.

From the perspective of enterprises' land acquisition behavior, whether it is central state-owned enterprises operating independently, or leading real estate enterprises acquiring land jointly, the land acquisition criteria are still mature location, complete supporting facilities and supported demand. That is to say, high-quality core assets are still the priority choice for real estate enterprises' layout.

With the continuous implementation of policy details in the follow-up, Shanghai's land market is expected to continue to maintain the pattern of "stable overall operation, differentiated sector structure, and solid core value", and plots with scarcity and rigid demand support will further show their value resilience.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Ding Zuyi Reviews Real Estate Market", author: Editorial Department, Purui Research, authorized by 36Kr for release.