Pork prices have dropped to 15.77 yuan per kilogram, but pig farmers have been running at a loss for ten consecutive months.

As of August 4, 2026, the average market selling price of three-way hybrid slaughter pigs at home and abroad is 10.33 yuan per kilogram, down more than 9% from the periodic high on July 7; the average pork price at national agricultural product wholesale markets has fallen back to 15.77 yuan per kilogram; the price of the main 2609 hog futures contract once dropped to 10635 yuan per ton, hitting a new low since listing (Source: China Securities Journal, August 5, 2026).

The ten-day monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows the same trend: in late July 2026, the price of slaughter pigs (foreign three-way hybrid) fell by 5.5% month-on-month (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, released on August 4, 2026).

The meat in the wet market is indeed cheaper. But on the other end of the same industrial chain, the books tell the opposite story.

Ten Months: The Duration of Losses for an Entire Industry

According to the monitoring by Zhuochuang Information, the hog farming sector fell into loss since mid-September 2025, and as of mid-July 2026, the loss cycle of self-breeding and self-raising of hogs has reached 10 months; the average profit of self-breeding and self-raising of hogs in the first half of 2026 is -221.33 yuan per head, down 202.79% year-on-year (Source: Zhuochuang Information, reported by Sina Finance, July 17, 2026).

The same monitoring data shows that the average transaction price of foreign three-way hybrid slaughter pigs across the country in the first half of 2026 is 10.40 yuan per kilogram, down 29.92% year-on-year; the highest point is 13.26 yuan per kilogram on January 19, and the lowest point is 8.59 yuan per kilogram on April 13 (Source: Zhuochuang Information, reported by Sina Finance, July 17, 2026).

This round of losses did not start in 2026. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that small-scale free-range pig farmers have fallen into losses since June 2025, and large-scale pig farms turned from profit to loss since August 2025.

To measure whether pig farming is profitable, the industry commonly uses the pig-grain price ratio indicator. According to the monitoring of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, the pig-grain price ratio in the Beijing market was 4.22:1 from June 29 to July 5, 2026; the monitoring data of Hubei Province on July 16 was 4.37:1, which is still in the first-level early warning zone of excessive decline (Source: Xinhuanet, July 28, 2026).

The cost side has not deteriorated. The average theoretical feed cost per head in the first half of 2026 is 883.91 yuan, down 4.81% year-on-year; the corn price in the 3rd week of July is 2.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% year-on-year; the soybean meal price in the 3rd week of July is 3.19 yuan per kilogram, down 2.4% year-on-year (Source: Xinhuanet, July 28, 2026).

Feed costs are decreasing, but pig prices are falling faster. That is the full arithmetic of this round of losses.

Key data: As of August 4, 2026, the average selling price of foreign three-way hybrid slaughter pigs is 10.33 yuan per kilogram, the average wholesale price of pork is 15.77 yuan per kilogram, and the main hog futures contract once fell to 10635 yuan per ton, hitting a new low since listing (Source: China Securities Journal, August 5, 2026); the average profit of self-breeding and self-raising of hogs in the first half of 2026 is -221.33 yuan per head, and the loss cycle has reached 10 months (Source: Zhuochuang Information, reported by Sina Finance on July 17, 2026); the pig-grain price ratio is in the first-level early warning zone of excessive decline (Source: Xinhuanet, July 28, 2026).

The Semi-Annual Reports of Listed Pig Enterprises Amplify the Losses

Industry losses are reflected in a set of concentrated performance pre-releases from listed companies.

According to the statistics of Time Weekly, 20 listed pig enterprises all mentioned in their 2026 semi-annual performance pre-releases that the downward cycle of the hog industry and the sharp drop in hog sales prices have led to a decline in profits or losses in their hog farming business in the first half of the year (Source: Time Weekly, July 2026).

At the corporate level: Muyuan Co., Ltd. expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, compared with a profit of 10.53 billion yuan in the same period last year; New Hope expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion yuan to 1.8 billion yuan in the same period, compared with a profit of 755 million yuan in the same period last year; Tangrenshen stated that the average sales price of market hogs of the company in the first half of the year decreased by about 27.5% year-on-year, and the loss scale of the hog farming business expanded significantly year-on-year (Source: 2026 semi-annual performance pre-releases of the above companies, sorted out by industry information platforms, July 20, 2026).

The monthly sales briefings provide more detailed price breakdowns. In June 2026, the average sales price of market hogs of Muyuan Co., Ltd. was 9.69 yuan per kilogram, down 31.18% year-on-year, and the sales revenue of market hogs in June was 7.5 billion yuan, down 41.40% year-on-year; the average sales price of live hogs of Wens Co., Ltd. in June was 9.62 yuan per kilogram, down 33.15% year-on-year; the average sales price of market hogs of New Hope in June was 9.35 yuan per kilogram, down 34.06% year-on-year; the average sales price of market hogs (excluding piglets) of Zhengbang Technology in June was 9.68 yuan per kilogram (Source: June hog sales briefings of the above companies, reported by Sina Finance, July 8, 2026).

Putting these figures side by side reveals a fact: regardless of scale and cost control level, the average sales price falls in the range of 9.3 yuan to 9.7 yuan. The price is a common burden for the whole industry, while cost is the factor that differentiates the performances of different enterprises.

Where Did the Saved Money Go

The decline on the consumer side is smaller than that on the farming side.

At the same point in time, the average selling price of slaughter pigs is 10.33 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of pork is 15.77 yuan per kilogram (Source: China Securities Journal, August 5, 2026). From live hogs to pork carcasses, there are multiple links including slaughtering, segmentation, cold chain, wholesale and retail. The price difference includes the conversion of meat yield as well as processing and circulation costs of each link, which is normal in itself.

But it also explains a common confusion: why when the price of live hogs falls by 30%, the price of pork ribs in supermarkets does not drop by 30%. The farming side bears all the fluctuations of the price, while the circulation side bears relatively fixed costs. When the market is in a downward trend, the profit of the former is pushed below zero, while the relative proportion of the latter becomes larger instead.

The following is a reasoning for readers' reference. Under the combination of continuous losses in the farming side and relatively rigid circulation costs, the downward range of terminal retail prices is usually smaller than that of slaughter pig prices, which means that the cost of this round of low prices is mainly borne by the farming link, rather than evenly shared across the industrial chain. However, the specific sharing ratio varies greatly due to the utilization rate of local slaughtering capacity, frozen inventory level and retail format structure, which needs to be verified with actual regional retail data, so a unified ratio is not suitable to be given for the time being.

The Gate for Sows Has Been Twisted Close to the Red Line

The medium and long-term trend of pig prices never depends on today's quotation, but on the inventory of breeding sows.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on July 16, 2026 shows that the national inventory of breeding sows at the end of the second quarter was 37.8 million head, down 2.63 million head or 6.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and down 1.81 million head compared with the end of 2025 (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, July 16, 2026; introduction by Zhang Xingwang, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, July 24, 2026).

The reference line is also moving. In May 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revised and issued the Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Regulation and Control of Hog Production Capacity, lowering the normal national inventory of breeding sows from 39 million head to about 37.5 million head, and tightened the three-color early warning interval (Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, reported by Securities Times, May 2026).

37.8 million head versus 37.5 million head is equivalent to 100.8% of the normal holding volume. The de-capacity process has approached the regulatory baseline.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, judges that: in the short term, the upward momentum of prices is weakening; in the medium term, pig prices are expected to recover moderately in the second half of 2026, but excessive optimism is not advisable, the overall market supply of hogs is still in a loose state, superimposed with the off-season of consumption and insufficient terminal demand (Source: Xinhuanet, July 28, 2026).

Removable framework · 10-month clock of pig cycle: Breeding sow inventory → (about 10 months) → Market hog slaughter → Slaughtering operation rate and frozen meat inventory → Terminal quotation. To understand any round of pig cycle, only three scales are needed: the change of sow inventory determines the supply direction 10 months later, frozen meat inventory determines the short-term fluctuation range, and slaughtering operation rate determines the weekly quotation direction. If the three scales do not match, it means that non-cyclical factors are involved. In short, today's price is the result of decisions made 10 months ago, and decisions made today will not take effect until 10 months later.

What Does This Have to Do With You

First layer: Families that buy meat twice a week. The average wholesale pork price of 15.77 yuan per kilogram is at a relatively low level, but it is supported by continuous losses on the farming side, not driven by strong demand. Low price and stable supply are two sides of the same coin at this stage.

Second layer: Pig farmers and practitioners in the industrial chain. The inventory of breeding sows has approached the regulatory baseline, and the de-capacity space has been compressed to 0.8%. This means that the main variable of subsequent production capacity adjustment will shift from "whether to cull sows" to "when to restock sows", and whether the cost curve of each enterprise can hold on until that moment.

Third layer: All people who care about price levels. Pork is a category with high weight in the food item of the Consumer Price Index. This round of price decline is not only good news on the dining table, but also a drag item in the statistical caliber. The two facts are true at the same time and do not contradict each other.

The discounted pork ribs in the supermarket are the result of a decision made by a farm 10 months ago to keep more or less sows. To figure out this account clearly, you have to start checking from the sow pens.

What do you want to say about this? Feel free to share your opinions in the comment section.

This article is for information sharing and industry analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, investment analysis opinion or transaction invitation. The data in the article comes from public information including reports of China Securities Journal on August 5, 2026, releases of National Bureau of Statistics of China on July 16 and August 4, 2026, reports of Xinhuanet on July 28, 2026, monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information (reported by Sina Finance on July 17, 2026), 2026 semi-annual performance pre-releases and monthly sales briefings of relevant listed companies (sorted out by Sina Finance on July 8, 2026 and industry information platform on July 20, 2026). All data shall be subject to the original sources. The data of listed companies involved in the article shall be subject to the full text of their announcements. The market is risky, and decisions should be made with caution. The content marked "reasoning" in the article is logical deduction based on public information and does not represent the official position.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "BT Finance" (ID: btcjv1), author: BT Finance, published with authorization from 36Kr.