The first province to ban the sale of fuel-powered vehicles has arrived.

Recently, the Hainan Provincial People's Government officially released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Hainan National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone (15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful Hainan Construction)" (hereinafter referred to as the Plan), which explicitly puts forward the goal of "steadily advancing the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles by 2030".

According to the Plan, by 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles (NEVs) among newly added and replaced vehicles in Hainan's public services and social operation sectors (excluding special-purpose vehicles) will reach 100%, the proportion of new energy vehicles in newly added and replaced private vehicles will also hit 100%, and the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio will remain below 2.5:1.

A review of public information shows that this is not the first time Hainan has put forward this ambitious goal.

Back in 2018, during the annual Boao Forum for Asia, the then leading official of Hainan Provincial Government publicly stated that the provincial government would launch a NEV-related plan to achieve full coverage of new energy vehicles across the island by 2030.

Shortly afterwards, the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting Hainan's Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and Opening-up" issued by the state clearly proposed to accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles and energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles, and gradually ban the sale of fuel vehicles on Hainan Island.

In 2019, the "Hainan Provincial Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan" further specified that, taking full account of the technical maturity and application status of different types of clean energy vehicles, the province would strive to fully ban the sale of fuel vehicles across the province by 2030. Since then, Hainan has fired the "first shot in the ban on fuel vehicle sales".

In 2022, Hainan Provincial Government issued the "Hainan Provincial Carbon Peaking Implementation Plan", which reaffirmed the goal of completely banning the sale of fuel vehicles across the island by 2030.

From an external perspective, Hainan has remarkable advantages in promoting new energy vehicles. As a relatively independent geographical unit, Hainan Island has a moderate size, and the farthest travel distance within the island usually does not exceed 200 to 300 kilometers, which highly matches the current cruising range of mainstream electric vehicles. In addition, Hainan's unique tropical climate means that batteries do not need to cope with performance degradation problems caused by low-temperature environments. Meanwhile, Hainan has diversified power generation methods such as wind power and nuclear power, and the proportion of heavy industry on the island is relatively low, which is conducive to ensuring stable power supply.

At present, the construction of Hainan's clean energy island is deepening and upgrading. New energy has become the largest power source in Hainan, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the proportion of NEVs in total vehicle ownership rank first and second respectively among all provincial-level regions in China.

Data previously released by the Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology shows that Hainan maintained its leading position in China in NEV promotion in 2025, with 116,800 units promoted throughout the year, exceeding its annual target. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Hainan jumped from less than 4% to 62.9%, leading the country in promotion effectiveness. In 2026, Hainan plans to promote more than 100,000 additional new energy vehicles.

According to the quantitative targets set in the Plan, the proportion of new energy vehicles in total vehicle ownership in Hainan is expected to rise from 23.75% in 2025 to 45% by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan also emphasizes that existing fuel vehicles will still be allowed to drive on roads legally and normally after 2030, and there will be no "one-size-fits-all" elimination of in-use fuel motor vehicles.

As for whether other regions will follow suit, analysts believe that provinces and cities with high NEV penetration rates and well-developed charging infrastructure, such as Guangdong and Shanghai, are likely to implement the policy in phases; however, full implementation across the whole country will still take time and further improvement of supporting conditions.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Urban Evolution", written by Liu Yanmei, and published with authorization by 36Kr.