The roads are fixed, but when will the vehicles arrive? The sense of distance for the "tens of thousands of takeoff and landing points" in low-altitude infrastructure

What the low - altitude economy faces today may not be a shortage of infrastructure, but rather that the demand curve has not yet been verified.

At the beginning of June, a signing ceremony worth billions of dollars brought the plan for tens of millions of low - altitude takeoff and landing points to the forefront.

On the other hand, EHang only delivered 4 aircraft in the first quarter. Volant and XPeng are still on the way to obtaining certificates, and the manned aircraft available for commercial operation across the country are still far from forming a large - scale fleet.

When the infrastructure blueprint meets the sparse reality of aircraft, there is a significant gap in quantity between the infrastructure and the supply of vehicles in the low - altitude economy. Is this gap a growing pain for the industry or a deviation in direction?

01

What exactly do tens of millions of takeoff and landing points refer to?

On June 5th, Yuhou Life and Quanyu Aviation signed a cooperation agreement worth billions of dollars in Hangzhou, planning to build tens of millions of low - altitude takeoff and landing points. Less than a month earlier, on May 9th, the Low - Altitude Economy Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement for the solicitation of research projects in 2026, listing in - depth research on low - altitude economy development legislation and research on low - altitude logistics cost analysis and cost - reduction measures as two major directions.

The two pieces of news are less than a month apart, and it's easy to read a sense of confrontation from them.

Private capital is expanding aggressively, while the policy level is calmly correcting the deviation, but this interpretation may be overstated.

As a newly established institution, the primary task of the Low - Altitude Economy Development Department is to make up for the deficiencies. The legal framework for China's low - altitude economy has not yet taken shape, and the cost data for the entire logistics chain is basically blank. The solicitation of research projects is the basic work for the industry to move from concept to commercialization, rather than a response to specific commercial cooperation.

What really needs to be asked is: What exactly does the number 'tens of millions' refer to?

Low - altitude takeoff and landing facilities form a gradient system: large - scale comprehensive hubs, medium - sized vertical takeoff and landing fields, small takeoff and landing points, drone nests, rooftop helipads, and even digital virtual flight points. If 90% of the tens of millions are virtual flight points and low - cost marking points (ground - sprayed markings), the unit cost may be as low as a few hundred yuan or even close to zero, and the total investment may not be as astonishing as a linear extrapolation.

Based on the investment intensity of current public projects, even if only some of the points are built in a physical form, the capital demand may far exceed the scale of billions of dollars.

Who is Yuhou Life? This Internet technology company, established in Hangzhou in 2019, has a paid - in registered capital of 100 million yuan. It was listed on the Hong Kong Equity Exchange in 2021, and its main business covers four major sectors: the digital economy, digital communities, rural revitalization, and the low - altitude economy.

It is not an enterprise from the aviation industry but has entered the low - altitude track by crossing over from the fields of big data and cloud computing. In January 2025, Yuhou Life launched the Low - Altitude Home platform, attempting to replicate the information aggregation and service model of Autohome. In its cooperation with Quanyu Aviation, Quanyu Aviation provides the technical system, and Yuhou Life is responsible for overall planning, national layout, implementation and construction, and ecological operation.

It is worth noting that Cao Ming serves as the chairman of both Yuhou Life and Quanyu Aviation. This means that the cooperation worth billions of dollars is more like an internal business collaboration under the same controlling person, rather than a market - based game between two independent enterprises. The role of Yuhou Life in the low - altitude economy is thus clear: it is not an aircraft manufacturer, nor a technology provider for airspace management, but an investment and operation platform for infrastructure, attempting to leverage the heavy - asset infrastructure network with light - asset digital capabilities. Does its profit only depend on flight service commissions and site rentals? Are land appreciation, government subsidies, the monopoly position of the data platform, and cross - subsidies in public service scenarios such as culture and tourism and emergency response also included in its financial model? These questions determine whether the 'tens of millions' is a far - sighted layout or an early bet.

02

On the aircraft side: Only 4 aircraft were delivered in the first quarter

The demand density of infrastructure depends on the number of aircraft in service. The reality of this data is: slow.

The EHang EH216 - S is the world's first manned eVTOL to obtain the type certificate, production license, and operation certificate. It delivered 216 aircraft in 2024 and 221 aircraft in 2025, setting a new record. However, the financial report data for the first quarter of 2026 gave a strong reverse signal: only 4 EH216 series aircraft were delivered in the first quarter, with a total revenue of 25.7 million yuan, a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, and the net loss widened to 126.4 million yuan. EHang explained in its financial report that it is collaborating with the Civil Aviation Administration of China to meet the operation and safety requirements before ticketed flights, and the two operators with operation certificates are still improving their processes and training systems.

With the operation certificate in hand but commercialization not yet fully realized, this is the real state of the Chinese eVTOL industry so far in 2026.

Other players are also proceeding cautiously. XPeng HT Aero's split - type flying car 'Land Carrier' plans to start deliveries in the second half of 2026. Volant AE200 is expected to obtain the type certificate in 2026 and start small - batch production in the second half of the year. GAC GaoYu GOVY AirCab is expected to obtain the certificate by the end of 2026, and the first vehicle rolled off the production line at the Guangzhou factory in May.

The progress of the drone logistics network is a bit faster.

SF Express, Meituan, and JD.com have achieved large - scale operations in urban last - mile delivery and mountainous area logistics scenarios, but large - scale operations on inter - city feeder lines and cross - regional trunk lines are still in the pilot stage. The fact that the Low - Altitude Economy Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has listed low - altitude logistics cost analysis as a key research project itself indicates that the cost competitiveness of the entire logistics chain has not yet been formed. If logistics drones were already profitable, there would be no need for special research on cost - reduction measures.

The data from Shenzhen can illustrate the actual state of the supply - demand relationship. According to the Layout Plan for Low - Altitude Aircraft Takeoff and Landing Facilities in Shenzhen (2026 - 2035), as of the end of 2024, a total of 483 takeoff and landing facilities had been built in the city, including 136 takeoff and landing points for helicopters and eVTOLs, 77 logistics takeoff and landing points, and 178 takeoff and landing points for urban governance. Shenzhen plans to build more than 1200 low - altitude takeoff and landing points and open more than 1000 commercial routes by the end of 2026.

However, as of the first quarter of 2026, there is no authoritative statistics on the number of eVTOLs available for commercial operation in Shenzhen. Even if logistics drones are included, the utilization rate of the 1200 takeoff and landing points will still be at a low level in the initial stage.

03

The boundary of over - construction

Low utilization directly impacts the investment return model, but the extent of the impact depends on the investment subject and the revenue structure.

Currently, local governments and state - owned enterprise platforms are the main investors in low - altitude infrastructure. The 5 - billion - yuan low - altitude new infrastructure project in Yuecheng District, Shaoxing is led by local finance and platform companies. The 1200 takeoff and landing points in Shenzhen rely on the transformation of 7 + 30 comprehensive logistics stations and bus stations, which is essentially a government - driven supply of public goods. As a private platform, if Yuhou Life uses market - based financing to leverage an investment of billions of dollars, the return requirements it faces are different from those of public projects.

A question must be answered: At a stage when the number of aircraft in service is less than a thousand and flight frequencies have not been commercialized, where does the operating cash flow come from?

A common defense logic is appropriate over - construction. The construction of highways and high - speed railways also preceded the traffic flow, and they eventually saw the release of demand. However, there is a key difference in the premise of this analogy: whether the technical route has been finalized.

The eVTOL is currently in a period of technical route competition. Multi - rotor (EHang EH216 - S, GAC GOVY AirCab), compound - wing (Volant AE200), tilt - rotor (US Joby S4), and split - type (XPeng HT Aero Land Carrier) have very different requirements for the area, load - bearing, and charging interfaces of takeoff and landing sites. If tens of millions of takeoff and landing points are built according to the current mainstream aircraft standards, once the technical route is iterated, such as from multi - rotor to compound - wing or from pure - electric to hybrid, some assets may face the risk of being sunk. When traditional transportation infrastructure is built, its technical standards are basically locked for decades, while the technical uncertainty of low - altitude infrastructure is significantly higher.

However, this risk also needs to be evaluated in specific scenarios.

The transformation cost of drone nests and small takeoff and landing points is relatively low, and the location selection of large - scale comprehensive hubs will consider aircraft model compatibility. Shenzhen clearly proposed a classification and grading system in its takeoff and landing facility layout plan, precisely to manage this technical uncertainty at different levels.

04

Another rhythm in the world

The progress rhythm in the United States provides another perspective for observation.

Different from the intensive infrastructure construction led by local governments in China, the path in the United States is more driven by enterprises. The airworthiness certification framework of the Federal Aviation Administration is the core constraint, but the policy toolbox is not empty. In 2024, the US House of Representatives passed the 'Advanced Air Mobility Coordination and Leadership Act', requiring the Department of Transportation to formulate a national AAM strategy. The Federal Aviation Administration had previously provided a priority channel for airworthiness certification for eVTOL enterprises through special programs such as 'Innovation 28'. The US Air Force's 'Agility Prime' project has continuously injected military orders and test scenarios into enterprises such as Joby and Archer, objectively accumulating a large amount of flight data required for civil airworthiness.

Enterprise commercialization is progressing in parallel with the certification process.

Joby Aviation has entered the final sprint of the five - stage certification by the Federal Aviation Administration. The first conforming aircraft took off in March 2026. Joby plans to launch the first batch of air taxi services in Dubai at the end of 2026, in cooperation with Uber, with 4 vertical takeoff and landing fields covering the airport, Palm Jumeirah, the city center, and the university. Archer Aviation received acceptance of its 100% compliance verification plan from the Federal Aviation Administration in January 2026 and plans to conduct manned vertical takeoff and landing trial operations in the second half of 2026 and cooperate with Southwest Airlines to layout the airport and vertical takeoff and landing field network.

It is worth noting that the infrastructure strategy of US enterprises is not simply a follow - up strategy. Joby's layout in Dubai is an aggressive strategy ahead of the Federal Aviation Administration's certification, taking advantage of the relatively flexible regulatory environment in the UAE to seize the first - mover advantage. Archer's cooperation with Southwest Airlines also locks in the hub locations in advance. This approach of 'exploring operations before certification is completed' has a similar logic to China's model of combining certification and operation - both are looking for practical ways to advance when the system is incomplete.

The difference lies in the subject and rhythm of infrastructure investment. Low - altitude infrastructure in China is more led by local governments, with clear planning goals and a relatively fast investment rhythm. In the United States, there is a lack of infrastructure coordination at the federal level, and the vertical takeoff and landing field network is advanced through negotiations between enterprises and their partners independently, with a slower but more decentralized rhythm.

05

The road is built, but where are the cars?

The low - altitude economy needs infrastructure, but the density of the required infrastructure should grow in sync with the number of aircraft in service, flight frequencies, and the maturity of scenarios. If the narrative of tens of millions of takeoff and landing points is divorced from a prudent assessment of this synchronization, it may over - extrapolate the belief in the network effect.

It seems that as long as the points are dense enough, flight demand will automatically emerge.

The economic laws of air transportation do not support this linear thinking. Demand is driven by the savings in time cost and the cost competitiveness of the entire life cycle, rather than being unilaterally created by the density of infrastructure.

When will the ticket price of eVTOLs be competitive with that of high - end online car - hailing services or high - speed rail business class? When will the full - chain cost of logistics drones be lower than that of traditional last - mile delivery? These are the key variables that determine whether the low - altitude economy can move from concept verification to commercial sustainability.

For the cooperation between Yuhou Life and Quanyu Aviation, the market should judge it not by the scale of the signing ceremony, but by the actual number of flight sorties, the unit asset turnover rate, and the positive or negative operating cash flow after the first thousand takeoff and landing points are built. On the aircraft side, EHang only delivered 4 aircraft in the first quarter, and Volant and XPeng are still on the way to obtaining certificates. In the face of such a sparse reality, infrastructure investment needs to answer an old question: The road is built, but when will the cars come?

This article is from the WeChat official account "Low - Altitude Future", author: Yuan Su, published by 36Kr with authorization.