Qu Tian finally relented and talked to us about the return of that 5 billion.

Qu Tian is an investor hard to define.

As an investor, he of course has outstanding representative works. For example, he led the Series B financing of Meituan on behalf of Alibaba and also brokered Gan Jiawei to join Wang Xing's team. In 2017, Qu Tian set up his own firm, ATM Capital. Without any experience in going global, he managed to invest in J&T Express in Indonesia on his first try.

In the context of going global, J&T Express may be one of the most legendary companies.

This company has not only rapidly grown in overseas markets like TikTok, Shein, and Transsion, becoming a representative of cultural output after China's economic rise. More importantly, the birth of J&T Express was full of surprises. Take TikTok, Shein, and Transsion as examples. Although their birth was also groundbreaking for China's venture capital industry, TikTok is essentially a social product in the mobile - Internet era, Shein is a cross - border e - commerce platform thriving on mobile payment, and Transsion is a mobile phone manufacturer. In essence, they all come from China's traditional advantageous sectors. Even in 2019, our social networks proudly referred to this series of industries as the "New Four Great Inventions".

However, J&T Express is a courier company, a logistics - industry enterprise. This is an industry that is not considered to have much model innovation in people's minds.

Such a company that doesn't seem "sexy" has eventually grown into a giant worth hundreds of billions. Qu Tian is even certain that J&T Express will become the "world champion" within ten years. Qu Tian is deeply involved with J&T Express, almost becoming part of the enterprise. Over the years, he has been used to playing the role of a military advisor and has been deeply involved in the growth of this Southeast Asian logistics giant. Visibly, for example, he supported J&T Express to return to the Chinese market and expand into Latin America. Qu Tian led several top - tier institutions to invest in this business.

It's hard to understand an investor's obsession with the role of a "military advisor". In the conversation, he mentioned the movie King Richard, which tells how the tennis champions Venus and Serena Williams were shaped by their coach - father. He is well - versed in The Art of War. Not long ago, he even wrote a special article on "the principles for going global", which he believes is a toolbox to help Chinese enterprises go global.

Whether it's making investments or being a military advisor, what really excites Qu Tian is the verification of hypotheses. He always withdraws at the peak of a wave and voluntarily goes ahead to wait alone for the next wave he identifies, even when there is no certainty.

He says that in his life, he pursues to see further than others. He is proud of his experience with J&T Express, saying that "few investors in the world have had such an experience". He also says, "I want to cultivate more world champions."

This is probably his way to "invest" in the next J&T Express.

Our acquaintance with Qu Tian began at a dinner during the China Venture Capital Summit two years ago. Pu Fan was one of the hosts. He recalled that his first impression of Qu Tian was that he was young and successful, extremely lucky. He was a top student since primary school, graduating from the math experimental class of Renmin University High School and then majoring in physics at Peking University. As soon as he entered the investment industry, he invested in Meituan. When he decided to go global, he encountered J&T Express.

Cao Weiyu's first impression of Qu Tian was abstracted in investment cases and returns. In 2024, the China Venture Capital's Best Return List (over $1 billion) had been empty for two years. When researching which cases might meet this standard, she discovered Qu Tian and J&T Express. According to the market value at that time, the return on this investment exceeded HK$2 billion, and now this figure is close to HK$4 billion.

Two years later, we had a in - depth conversation with Qu Tian again. Finally, after seven years, we heard the most complete investment story of J&T Express (which was one of our greatest curiosities).

Participants in this seminar:

Qu Tian, Founding Partner of ATM Capital; Cao Weiyu and Pu Fan, Editors of China Venture Capital

Why choose to "go global" in 2017 when the mobile Internet was "booming"?

(02:55)

Cao Weiyu: Including the recent buy - back, your return from J&T Express is at least HK$5 billion. You haven't told the complete investment story so far. Can you share it?

Qu Tian: The whole story starts from going to Southeast Asia. It's not that there were no opportunities in China, but there were bigger and more suitable opportunities overseas. I prefer to enter a track at an early stage rather than getting in after it has matured. This way, I can make long - term arrangements and seize greater opportunities. I started investing in the mobile Internet in 2007 and invested in Meituan at an early stage because I got in early enough.

Cao Weiyu: Which round of Meituan was it?

Qu Tian: In 2011, during the Series B financing of Meituan, I led a $35 million investment on behalf of Alibaba and acquired nearly 20% of the shares. The post - investment valuation of that round was only $200 million. At that time, Meituan had a very difficult time raising funds. Only after Alibaba led the investment did other investors follow. This investment made me firmly believe that I must place early bets when others don't understand.

In 2017, I didn't find any long - term opportunities in China that I was confident about. The only certainty I saw was the globalization of Chinese enterprises. However, the European and American markets were too mature and the competition was too fierce. So I started with emerging markets and finally settled on Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the largest single market in Southeast Asia. There is a saying that "whoever wins Indonesia wins Southeast Asia".

Why choose to invest in a "logistics company"?

(06:46)

Pu Fan: What's most surprising about J&T Express is not that a big company was born in Southeast Asia, but that the logistics industry, which has been fully explored in the Chinese market, was not considered to have any new trends. People even subconsciously regarded it as a low - value - added industry. From 2017 to 2019, we were all talking about the "New Four Great Inventions", and no one would include logistics in the globalization narrative. Why did you choose this model?

Qu Tian: I worked at Alibaba for eight years. I spent a lot of time helping Professor Zeng Ming and Dr. Wang Jian with the layout of the mobile Internet and cloud computing. Influenced by them, I have a relatively deep understanding of strategy and foresight. I firmly believe that many truly valuable things are often overlooked.

For example, Alibaba has always said that it wants to be the sunshine, air, and water for e - commerce. Just as people are all focusing on AI and computing power, they ignore China's sufficient power generation and the proportion of green energy, which are actually China's greatest advantages. Elon Musk himself also said that in the future, the US will not have an advantage over China in AI. Why? Because China has sufficient electricity.

Back to the logistics industry, we can't just look at the surface - level involution. SF Express has a market value of $30 billion and an annual profit of $1.4 - 1.5 billion. ZTO Express has a market value of $18 billion and an annual profit of about $1 billion. In terms of profit scale, it's not small at all. It's just that the current industry competition in China has led to a relatively low price - to - earnings ratio.

Express delivery is a high - profit cash - flow business. No one expected it to become the core infrastructure for e - commerce. Why is China's e - commerce so developed? It's inseparable from express delivery. With a delivery fee of just over two yuan per order and next - day delivery, this is unique in the world. Alibaba built an economical express delivery network, and together with Alipay and WeChat, which facilitated online payment, this led to the explosion of Douyin E - commerce and Pinduoduo.

I remember very clearly that around 2008 and 2009, Taobao had entered a stage of rapid development. During the Double 11 promotion, there would always be a backlog of packages. Logistics was Alibaba's biggest bottleneck. Alibaba tried to cooperate with SF Express, but SF Express didn't even want to meet, thinking they didn't need it. At that time, express delivery companies were very powerful. They adopted the franchise system, had cash - flow businesses, and made very good profits. The owners of these express delivery companies were the richest, while Alibaba had just started to make a profit.

I left China in 2017 and witnessed the entire explosion of e - commerce. My judgment on the Southeast Asian market was that as long as we could invest in a logistics enterprise like SF Express or ZTO Express, the value would be significant. E - commerce platforms were burning money for subsidies in the early stage, and only logistics companies could make stable profits. Investing in infrastructure is a high - return and stable thing, just like in the American gold - rush era, those who sold water made the most money.

Cao Weiyu: Selling water and shovels is always a sure - win business. In the AI era, those who sell courses are the first to make money.

Qu Tian: And AIDC is also a huge industry.

Cao Weiyu: So investing in J&T Express was the implementation of your insights from Alibaba?

Qu Tian: Yes, that's the core reason.

Going global also depends on the timing. By 2017, there were already "Meituan" and "Alipay" in Southeast Asia

(14:15)

Cao Weiyu: Among this wave of investment opportunities in Southeast Asia, J&T Express is the largest in scale. But there are also a large number of companies that copied from China, such as Grab, Shopee, and Lazada. Why didn't you invest in any of them?

Qu Tian: Good question. Actually, when I first went to Southeast Asia, I had the idea of seeing what successful Chinese models could be replicated there. But at that time, these companies had already grown to a large scale, with valuations of tens of billions of dollars. The best investment window was actually in 2013, and I didn't enter the Southeast Asian market until 2017.

If I had gone to Southeast Asia in 2013, I believe I would have been an early investor in all of them.

After the rapid growth of e - commerce, the supporting infrastructure is the real opportunity, and the most important ones are logistics, payment, and the supply chain. The supply chain is highly fragmented and not suitable for investment. Payment is usually dominated by platforms. Only logistics is suitable for third - party entrepreneurship and institutional investment. So after researching in 2017, I concluded that a logistics giant like SF Express would surely emerge in Southeast Asia.

Cao Weiyu: Didn't you consider buying stocks? Holding them in another form to make up for the regret of not making an investment. First - tier investors often do this.

Qu Tian: You asked a good question. I remember Shopee was listed at a valuation of only $5 billion. If I had bought Shopee's stocks, I would have had more than ten times the return by now.

Cao Weiyu: But you didn't.

Qu Tian: I was willing to invest a large amount of money in J&T Express.

Cao Weiyu: How much did you invest?

Qu Tian: I can't disclose the specific amount. I can only say that when I went to Southeast Asia to invest, I basically invested all my personal money and the Alibaba stocks I had before.

There are many ways to make money. If I didn't run a fund, I could just buy some Shopee stocks, or Tesla, or Nvidia. That would make me a passive shareholder. But why do I want to do investment? I'm participating in the creation of history.

Cao Weiyu: Is this sense of participation more exciting than making money?

Qu Tian: There is no end to making money. After a certain point, it's just a number. What's more important is what else you gain besides money.

Cao Weiyu: Since when has making money been just a number to you?

Qu Tian: It was like that even when I had no money. I believed very early on that as long as I did this thing well, I wouldn't lack money in the future. So what I had to do was to focus on doing this thing well and not think about money.

Cao Weiyu: This passage has the essence of Jack Ma, "I'm not interested in money."

Qu Tian: I believe Jack Ma was telling the truth.

Both clients and peers recommended "J&T Express" to me

(19:02)

Cao Weiyu: Let's talk about J&T Express. You first decided on the business and then looked for the right people. But I believe J&T Express must have been in a very low - profile state. It wasn't something that investors could see just by standing there, or that the business plan would be handed to you. J&T Express must have been "dug out".

Qu Tian: Yes. At that time, we were looking for the future "SF Express" in Southeast Asia. It must be a new startup, not a traditional logistics giant that had been around for decades.

I talked to all the emerging express delivery companies in various Southeast Asian countries, with a focus on Indonesia. Because Indonesia has the largest population in Southeast Asia, accounting for 43% of the total population in Southeast Asia, 40% of the GDP, and more than 50% of the e - commerce market.

The first company I talked to was "Ninja Van". Its investor recommended it to me. People spoke highly of this company because its founder is a Singaporean, values technology, and has received a very good education. He is a typical elite - style entrepreneur favored by Southeast Asian VCs.

But actually, the boss of an express delivery company can't be too tech - savvy. Instead, they need to be more "down - to - earth". I asked the founder some key questions, and his answers were all wrong. Especially when I asked him why he didn't focus on Indonesia since it's the largest market, he said there was a company called J&T (J&T Express) in Indonesia that he couldn't compete with.

Cao Weiyu: Thanks for this lead from the peer.

Qu Tian: In investment, we can't rely on a single source of information. Besides the peer thinking that J&T was strong, we also learned from several e - commerce platforms that J&T was the second - largest in Indonesia at that time. The first was JNE (JNE Express), a traditional logistics giant that had been in business for decades. But in the e - commerce field, J&T was the first.

On the other hand, I needed to judge the market growth. At that time, I investigated several Southeast Asian e - commerce platforms, including Shopee, Lazada, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. After the investigation, I thought the Shopee team was more like the early Alibaba and Pinduoduo, with very strong execution ability. So I judged that Shopee had the potential to become the largest e - commerce platform in Southeast Asia.

I asked the people at Shopee which express delivery company they mainly used in Indonesia. They said they used J&T because the team was very strong. Although J&T had been in the express delivery business for a short time, it had very good delivery timeliness, effective cost management, low prices, and good technology. The express delivery platform could be connected to their e - commerce technology platform, and the logistics tracking could be displayed in real - time.

— You see, this is the difference in time and space. These things are nothing in China, but in Indonesia, it's very difficult for a strong e - commerce platform like Shopee to achieve. Shopee holds promotions every month. During the promotions, the number of express delivery orders is five or even ten times higher than usual. Local express delivery companies don't have such flexibility. They can only handle up to twice the normal volume. Once the volume exceeds that, they don't have the capacity and will charge more. Only J&T can maintain the flexibility of the network no matter how many times the order volume increases, without experiencing a backlog and still providing good service.

So I heard the name of J&T from two different sources. At that time, there was a small circle of Chinese large - scale enterprises and startups in Indonesia. When I had meals and chats with these people, I found that the J&T team was very low - key. They were rarely seen in the market, and there