Elon Musk's "space photovoltaic dream" cannot be realized without the Chinese supply chain.

After experiencing the darkest moment of collective losses, can China's photovoltaic industry embark on a new industrial narrative with Elon Musk's space photovoltaic plan?

Space photovoltaic is rewriting the "value anchor" of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. As the dominant force in global photovoltaic manufacturing, Chinese enterprises are becoming the core of the supply chain that cannot be ignored in Musk's space energy blueprint.

Recently, the A-share market has witnessed a wave of "space photovoltaic" fever. The overall photovoltaic sector continues to heat up, maintaining a strong market trend. On January 26th, Runze New Energy hit the 20% daily limit during intraday trading and remained at the limit. Stocks such as TuoRiXinNeng, Asia - Amorton, GCL System Integration Technology, and MingYang Smart Energy also reached their daily limits. By January 28th, the market began to diverge, but sub - sectors such as photovoltaic film and BIPV still continued their upward trends.

The direct trigger for this market surge came from the Davos Forum on January 22nd. Musk publicly stated at the forum that SpaceX and Tesla are jointly building a photovoltaic production base in the United States with an annual production capacity of 200GW, which is expected to be put into operation within three years. The base will mainly supply power to ground - based data centers and space AI satellites. According to estimates, the planned scale of 200GW is close to a quarter of the total electricity demand in the United States. Such a grand plan has pushed the concept of "space photovoltaic", which was originally more on the research level, to the forefront of commercialization.

Feng Fan, the founder of Yanhe Technology, a photovoltaic technology company, said, "The high expectations of the capital market for space photovoltaic at present are not abnormal. Capital usually intervenes in the early stage of technological development rather than waiting until it matures. AI and commercial spaceflight are typical examples."

Behind the market's exuberant sentiment, is it just a short - lived theme speculation or a long - term track truly supported by industrial logic? Where are the market space and opportunities in this track?

01 The "Space Photovoltaic Fever" Triggered by Elon Musk

Not long ago, Musk publicly mocked nuclear fusion on several occasions. The reason is simple: the nuclear fusion industry has been saying for decades that it will take another ten years every ten years. He believes that, in contrast, space photovoltaic is a ready - to - use, implementable, and immediately scalable energy solution.

Previously, we detailed the reasons why Musk adheres to space photovoltaic in this article: A battle over energy routes is taking place in Silicon Valley. Generally speaking, Musk's bet on space photovoltaic is mainly to seek a breakthrough in the current energy bottleneck at the engineering level.

Compared with ground - based photovoltaic, space photovoltaic is like an "upgraded version". On the ground, solar panels can work for at most 8 - 12 hours, depending on the weather. Solar power stations in geosynchronous orbit can be exposed to sunlight for most of the time, unaffected by day and night, weather, and seasonal changes. In space, they can supply power almost 24 hours a day, and the energy density is much higher than that on the ground.

Musk's ultimate vision is to deploy a giant photovoltaic array in space and transmit electrical energy back to the ground via microwaves or lasers and connect it to the power grid. This means that space photovoltaic can be upgraded from a "power bank for spacecraft" to a "power plant for all mankind".

This vision of moving from an "energy - supplementing solution" to "infrastructure" has made the capital market re - evaluate the long - term value of this track. According to forecasts by institutions such as CITIC Construction Investment and Guojin Securities, the global space photovoltaic market may reach a range of $500 billion to $1 trillion by 2030.

An industry analyst said that this track naturally overcomes the three major limitations of ground - based photovoltaic: subsidy policies, grid consumption, and land resources. It means a real incremental demand in the market, rather than a stock game of "grabbing resources" and "competing for subsidies".

Feng Fan pointed out that currently, China has a global monopoly advantage in photovoltaic manufacturing. Affected by fierce industry competition, the prices of ground - based photovoltaic products are not ideal. In contrast, space photovoltaic has higher added value and greater conversion space, which is an important incremental opportunity for photovoltaic enterprises.

An energy revolution is happening at a visible speed. It doesn't need to wait as long as nuclear fusion; it just needs a rocket launch.

02 Can Elon Musk Do Without the Chinese Supply Chain?

Why did the "space photovoltaic" concept trigger a surge in the A - share market? The reason is far more than just "riding on the wave of a hot concept".

At the beginning of the year, Musk started to praise China's energy industry on multiple occasions, repeatedly emphasizing that China has far exceeded the United States in terms of the speed and scale of solar power generation, power expansion, and power grid construction.

The capital market's excitement about the photovoltaic industry lies not only in the "heat" but also in the structural changes taking place in the global energy landscape. Moreover, China has a real industrial foundation and a strategic position in it. In other words, what the capital sees is the engineering closed - loop of the track, the predictability of policies, and the long - term industrial value, rather than just the topic's popularity.

In fact, China started to plan for space photovoltaic a long time ago. As early as 2010, some domestic experts proposed a relevant roadmap at a technical seminar on space solar power stations, formulating a clear step - by - step strategy: first build a megawatt - level experimental power station in space for scientific research and emergency power supply, and ultimately achieve the long - term goal of a gigawatt - level commercial space power station.

Musk's statement had an unexpected effect and helped Chinese photovoltaic enterprises set the tone in the global market. When American technology giants start to seriously promote space photovoltaic, A - share investors will naturally re - evaluate whether the photovoltaic enterprises that have long supplied solar wings for the aerospace industry and have aerospace certifications are undervalued.

Behind this is not just the "over - enthusiasm" of the capital market, but more of a re - pricing logic based on real industrial capabilities.

Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are highly compatible with this track. Feng Fan pointed out that from the perspective of the global photovoltaic industry chain, China has an absolute advantage in both the photovoltaic manufacturing equipment field and the photovoltaic module manufacturing field.

Feng Fan said, "Currently, Chinese enterprises account for more than 70% of the global production capacity and shipments from equipment, materials to components, forming the real infrastructure layer of the global photovoltaic industry. In other words, if Musk wants to promote a large - scale, low - cost space photovoltaic route, whether he deploys it locally in the United States or not, he will 'inevitably rely on China'."

In addition, there is another factor quietly accelerating this trend: policy expectations. Space photovoltaic combines multiple strategic keywords such as "commercial spaceflight", "new - quality productivity", and "upgrading of the new energy system", and has the opportunity to be included in the category of "new infrastructure" in the future.

So, there are four forces behind this wave of daily limit surges: the industry's own pressure, China's long - term layout of space photovoltaic, the approaching policy direction, and the capital's search for new stories. Musk acted as the fuse, but what really supports the excitement is the accumulation, anxiety, and transformation needs of China's photovoltaic industry.

03 Can China's Photovoltaic Industry, Which Has Suffered Collective Losses, Be Saved?

To understand why the capital is excited, we must first look at the real situation of the photovoltaic industry in the past two years.

The trigger for the current market re - evaluation coincides with the trough of the photovoltaic industry. In the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has been deeply troubled by "over - capacity + price war". The prices of silicon materials and components have been falling, and the market is generally pessimistic.

According to incomplete statistics from the Futures Daily, as of March 2025, 33 photovoltaic listed companies have released performance forecasts. Most of them are facing declining revenues, turning from profit to loss, and even experiencing chain reactions such as project suspension and equity changes. Wang Bohua, the honorary chairman of the industry association, provided a more shocking set of data: the total pre - reduction and pre - loss of these 33 enterprises' performance is about 40 billion yuan, about ten times the scale of pre - increase, indicating that the industry's losses are continuing to expand.

A senior industry insider pointed out that the core reason for such large losses is a typical structural bubble. The over - expansion of production capacity for similar products and the same technical route has led to a cost war, inventory pressure, and price collapse.

Just when the industry was labeled as being in an "over - capacity cycle", Musk's plan to build "space photovoltaic production capacity" has been widely reported around the world, opening up a completely different growth logic for photovoltaic enterprises. However, can Musk's statement and the capital's enthusiasm really "save" the photovoltaic industry?

Feng Fan believes that this wave of market trends will not be short - lived, as it is the result of the superposition of two long - term trends: First, the commercial spaceflight industry has entered a critical expansion period, with the accelerated construction of satellites and constellations, making space photovoltaic a new engineering outlet for China's photovoltaic production capacity. Second, the maturity of the domestic commercial spaceflight system has allowed photovoltaic enterprises to see a path from ground - based power stations to space energy infrastructure.

The so - called "commercial spaceflight entering a critical expansion period" means that the actual engineering indicators such as the number of satellites, the number of launches, and constellation networking are increasing. When satellites are launched in constellations instead of one by one, it means that the demand for space energy has for the first time presented an engineering - scale scenario. In this context, space photovoltaic is a new outlet for demand, which can absorb a part of China's photovoltaic production capacity.

04 In the Trillion - Dollar Space Photovoltaic Market, Who Will Benefit First?

If the long - term logic of space photovoltaic holds, the core issue in the capital market will shift to "who will be the first to realize value".

The technical route determines the order of commercial realization. According to the forecast of CITIC Construction Investment, the technical route of space photovoltaic will evolve in three stages: in the short term, gallium arsenide batteries will dominate high - value aerospace scenarios; within the next five years, HJT technology will gradually penetrate low - orbit satellite missions; in the long term, perovskite tandem batteries will support the deployment of GW - level space data centers. Technological iteration will continuously reshape the industry's competitive landscape.

Currently, China's space photovoltaic industry has shown explorations in different directions, and many leading and innovative enterprises have laid the groundwork in relevant technical directions in advance.

From the perspective of potential participation links, they can be roughly divided into several types of roles:

One type of enterprise focuses on technical routes, hoping to obtain a ticket to the future through breakthroughs in efficiency and lightweighting.

For example, JinkoSolar has cooperated with Jingtai Technology to layout perovskite tandem batteries. The tandem route has attracted attention because it is expected to break through the efficiency limit of ground - based batteries. In the space scenario, every one - percentage - point increase in conversion efficiency means a significant reduction in launch weight and cost.

There are also enterprises that have entered the aerospace supply chain and have on - orbit verification experience. For example, Trina Solar has laid out three routes: crystalline silicon, perovskite tandem, and gallium arsenide multi - junction batteries. Its gallium arsenide products have been carried on on - orbit satellites.

A photovoltaic industry insider said, "The aerospace supply chain may seem unremarkable, but it has an implicit barrier. Aerospace certification itself is a multi - level filtering of technology, reliability, and material systems." The aerospace industry has extremely strict requirements for material radiation damage, extreme temperature difference cycles, mechanical strength, high - vacuum emissions, etc. The complete certification cycle usually takes several years, and on - orbit application experience is irreplaceable. This means that once space photovoltaic moves towards engineering, these enterprises will also gain a first - mover advantage.

Another type of enterprise focuses on the long - term system interface link. For example, LONGi Green Energy established a space laboratory in 2022 and participated in the technical verification between aerospace and new energy through space - borne experiments. These actions are more related to issues such as reliability, working condition adaptation, and standard interfaces, and are less related to short - term shipments and orders, but they are one of the necessary pre - conditions in the space photovoltaic system.

In addition, some enterprises choose to enter from a more "light - weight scenario", using consumer electronics, IoT, or special equipment as transitional scenarios for material and device verification.

Feng Fan took Yanhe Technology as an example, "We are conducting research and development in the direction of perovskite lightweight batteries and simultaneously verifying material stability, packaging technology, and power density in low - power consumption consumer electronics scenarios such as wearable devices and small sensors, as well as in high - reliability space photovoltaic scenarios in aerospace. This simultaneous promotion path helps to improve the material system and process chain, and make up for the characteristics such as lightness, high energy density, and flexibility that space photovoltaic may need in the future."

The competition in space photovoltaic involves a comprehensive wrestling among material engineering, aerospace certification, energy transmission systems, and national strategic layouts. The current market enthusiasm is just the curtain opening, and the real competition in the future will be fierce at the engineering and technical levels.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Tencent Technology", author: Li Hailun, published by 36Kr with authorization.