Has Tesla Bot received 10,000 orders? Elon Musk's bottom-fishing pays off.

Robots Save Tesla

“In the future, about 80% of Tesla's value will come from the robot Optimus,” Elon Musk said on Twitter.

All of a sudden, it caused quite a stir in the tech circle. What? Isn't Tesla's value supposed to come from autonomous driving? How has it now shifted to robots? It seems that few people can keep up with Musk's train of thought.

Generally, when tech companies “paint a rosy picture,” they might say they will lead trillion - dollar markets, have core technologies and ecological barriers in certain industries, and at most, mention ESG social responsibilities. However, Musk's promises are perhaps even grander than an Indian flatbread.

On September 2nd, Tesla officially released “Master Plan Part IV” on the X platform, completely rewriting the company's grand narrative. It shifted the company's development focus from electric vehicles and energy to artificial intelligence and robotics like never before, aiming to achieve a “sustainable and prosperous” society by integrating AI into the physical world on a large scale.

The plan proposes five guiding principles:

Growth is infinite: Technological innovation can solve resource shortage problems and create more economic opportunities.

Innovation eliminates limitations: Just as Tesla broke through the bottleneck of battery technology through innovation, continuous innovation can overcome seemingly impossible obstacles.

Technology solves real - world problems: Products such as autonomous vehicles and the Optimus robot aim to solve real - world problems like traffic safety, efficiency, and repetitive or dangerous labor.

Autonomous driving must benefit all of humanity: Its development and application should be centered around improving human well - being.

Wider popularization promotes greater growth: Providing advanced technological products on a large scale at an affordable price is a necessary condition for building a prosperous society.

Image source: x

This means that Musk will become a unique tech leader, leading humanity into a new era of technology, and the increase in productivity will be more than just a few times.

On September 7th, Tesla opened a Weibo account named “Tesla AI” and posted its first Weibo saying “I've been working hard to improve my figure,” showcasing a new version of the Optimus humanoid robot. It seems that Tesla's robots also have the ambition to enter the Chinese market. Maybe, like its cars, they will build a factory in China after large - scale mass production.

There were rumors that Tesla received an order for 10,000 Optimus robots. According to verification by Chief Business Review, it can't be called an order, but there is indeed an intention to cooperate, and a letter of intent has been signed.

Why does Musk place such a big bet on robots?

01. Tesla's cars are facing challenges

To sum up Tesla's second - quarter financial report in one sentence, it is “the traditional business is under pressure, while the emerging business is on the rise.” The second - quarter financial report showed that the company's overall revenue decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the net profit dropped by 20.7%. The vehicle delivery volume decreased by 13% year - on - year to 384,000 units, hitting a new low since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Location: Tesla showroom (Photography: Wei Ming)

In terms of revenue, Tesla's total revenue in Q2 was $22.496 billion, a 11.8% year - on - year decrease, the first double - digit revenue decline in seven years. It increased by 16.35% quarter - on - quarter, lower than Wall Street's expectation of $22.64 billion. The revenue from the previously profitable business of selling vehicle carbon emission credits was $439 million (about 3.14 billion yuan) this quarter, a year - on - year drop of 50.67% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 26.22%. Apart from the automotive business, the performance of the power generation and energy storage business was also not impressive. The Q2 revenue was $2.789 billion, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last year.

Image source: CarWale

The dismal performance of the electric vehicle business has also directly increased Tesla's forward price - to - earnings ratio. Currently, its stock price has soared to about 186 times its expected earnings, while the average price - to - earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent Seven” is 23 - 30 times. This shows that many investors are evaluating its stock price based on Tesla's future. Simply put, they are watching how hard Musk “performs” and believe that he can at least fulfill one or two of his promises.

So, Musk has rarely been fully focused on work. From his recent activities, it can be seen that he often stays up late to work on the robot project and demands an acceleration of robot production. He even publicly stated that in the future, about 80% of Tesla's value will come from the Optimus robot. Whether it can be achieved or not, at least the capital market believes it for now. Its stock price soared by 20.36% in the past five trading days, pulling the year - to - date stock price from a 45% decline in April to a 5% increase.

Location: Tesla showroom, the first - generation Optimus robot (Photography: Wei Ming)

02. Musk is in a hurry, but investors are even more impatient

“Optimus is the greatest product in human history!” Musk declared firmly at the All - In Summit. He also revealed three major breakthroughs of the next - generation robot Optimus V3: solving hand flexibility, having an AI brain, and achieving mass production.

Musk's ambition for robots is being realized at an unprecedented speed. According to the latest mass - production roadmap, Tesla will produce thousands of Optimus robots in 2025, increase the production capacity to 50,000 - 100,000 units in 2026, and aim for 500,000 - 1,000,000 units in 2027. This process is three years ahead of the original plan.

Of course, the capital market is the most excited. After Musk announced mass production, more than a dozen stocks such as Sanhua Intelligent Control, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Hanwei Technology hit the daily limit on that day. Some securities firms pointed out that Chinese enterprises have international competitiveness in key areas such as precision manufacturing, motors, and sensors. The industry expects that more than 60% of the global humanoid robot component orders will be undertaken by Chinese supply - chain enterprises in the future.

It's okay for the “Tesla - related supply chain” to get a head start, but the problem is not to overdo it. As of July 2025, the actual production volume of Tesla's Optimus robots was only a few hundred units, less than one - tenth of the original plan of 5,000 units. Even if the Optimus V3 is finalized, it is almost impossible to achieve a mass production of 5,000 units this year.

If the “Tesla - related supply chain” sets the expectation at 100,000 or even 1,000,000 units this year, the consequence may be similar to that of a certain new - energy battery giant, which calculated its price - to - earnings ratio all the way to 2060, and will inevitably face a significant adjustment. From 2023 - 2024, Lvde Harmonic, Inovance Technology, Tuopu Group, and Sanhua Intelligent Control were often sought after by market funds due to the “Tesla robot concept,” but many of these were based on “market expectations” or “potential supply chains” rather than confirmed orders. Therefore, their stock prices fluctuate greatly, and investment should be made with caution.

Image source: youtube

The “Tesla - related supply chain” faces similar problems as the “Apple - related supply chain” and the “Nvidia - related supply chain.” That is, the performance prospects and profit margins are controlled by these leading companies. They are not short of supply - chain enterprises and will compare and select them. For supply - chain enterprises, having only manufacturing capabilities is far from enough. Only by having certain uniqueness can they stay in the supply chain continuously. And the story of the “Tesla - related supply chain” is unlikely to be a simple linear growth story. Just like the unpredictable Musk, there will be more fluctuations and uncertainties.

Conclusion

Of course, just making grand promises won't convince the board of directors and shareholders. So, Musk spent $1 billion to buy 2.57 million Tesla shares recently. The market reacted quickly and positively. After the document was disclosed, Tesla's stock price soared by more than 8% in pre - market trading on Monday, reaching the level of $428, pushing the company's market value up by about $100 billion.

Location: Tesla showroom, Model Y L (Photography: Wei Ming)

It's still Musk who can turn the tide at critical moments. Robyn Denholm, the chairman of Tesla, said in an interview with the media that Musk is a “once - in - a - generation leader” and emphasized that keeping him is “the best way to optimize Tesla's future.”

References:

Musk shows his commitment with real money. Source: Wall Street News

Musk announces giving up remote control? Source: Robot Forward - looking

Who is the real leader in the humanoid robot track? Source: Silicon Step Run

Is it true that Tesla gives up remote operation? Source: Embodied Era

This article is from the WeChat official account “Chief Business Review” (ID: CHReview), author: Zuojing Guantian. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.