Admit it, you can't get even a share of the "Guzi Economy". | Dimension Observation

Written by Nie Kai

In October 2023, on the Japanese second-hand trading platform Mercari, a volleyball pin (8cm in diameter) with the signatures of all members of the Karasuno High School from "Haikyuu!!" was sold for 2.98 million yen (approximately 148,000 yuan), setting a new record for the highest price in a public auction of谷子.

Coincidentally, data from Xianyu shows that a "Memory Series" metal standee of the Meteor Team from "Ensemble Stars!" with inlaid natural sapphires was sold for a high price of 88,000 yuan. The buyer stated straightforwardly: "This is not consumption; it is an investment to preserve my youth."

The original price of the "Jujutsu Kaisen" Gojo Satoru pin is 78 yuan. When it was listed on Xianyu at a price of 1500 - 1600 yuan, it was snapped up immediately. The "Light and Night" male lead Lu Chen's "Bloodline Awakening" figurine, due to its plot setting that deeply captures the hearts of fans, has a second-hand price that once exceeded 60,000 yuan.

Source: Xiaohongshu

In 2024, the谷子 economy has become the most popular business model. Countless entrepreneurs have flocked in, capital is paying attention, shopping malls are actively offering concessions to attract tenants, and even the secondary market has responded. However, it is also in this year that another voice has begun to emerge - searching for the topic of "谷店倒闭" on platforms such as Xiaohongshu, there are already over 10,000 related notes. Selling methods such as price reduction and clearance sales, and lucky bag blind draws are not uncommon. Countless entrepreneurs who were full of hope have entered the market, but within less than a year, they have ended up in a hasty and unsuccessful situation.

On one hand, the market is promoting, and "海景" (high-priced谷子) are constantly emerging. On the other hand, the "普谷难民" (those with a backlog of unsalable products) are lamenting. Is the谷子 economy truly prosperous or a false bubble?

1. True Myth or False Bubble?

There is a saying in the谷圈: "You never know which IP will hide the next '海景房'."

The so-called "海景房" refers to谷子 whose second-hand prices have soared several times due to limited quantities, out-of-print status, or the explosion of IP popularity. Such as some of the谷子 mentioned above that were auctioned or hyped to high prices.

It is worth noting that in addition to limited quantities, out-of-print status, and IP popularity, the factors that determine whether a谷子 can become a "海景房" also include the popularity of the character itself and the quality of the product itself.

However, a senior practitioner in the谷店 industry disclosed to 36Kr that "Less than 5% of the overall circulation of谷子 can be called '海景房'. After the influx of many practitioners, this number may be even smaller. The remaining谷子 are likely to be sold at the same price as they were purchased, and more are sold at a loss. Moreover, not all '海景房' increase in price by more than ten times. Now, some that increase by 3 - 5 times can also be called '海景房'."

A more cruel fact is that even if a谷子 becomes a "海景房", it does not mean that its price will remain high. It will also be affected by factors such as IP popularity, plot, and character design. Such things are not uncommon in the二次元 circle. Some "海景房" are affected by similar factors, and it is not uncommon for their prices to drop below the issue price overnight. The common谷子 of this character may even become "garbage that no one wants even if it is given for free."

Source: Xiaohongshu

"Selling谷子 is sometimes like gambling. If you bet right, it's just normal business. If you bet wrong, you lose everything." A谷店 owner sighed.

In addition to high-priced谷子, another topic that outsiders are keen on is the "二次元 economy saving the old physical shopping malls".

It is undeniable that in the past few years, countless old shopping malls on the verge of closing have seen a significant increase in passenger flow due to the introduction of the二次元街区, and have become prosperous commercial centers. The most typical cases are Bailian ZX, Tianfu Red in Chengdu, Beijing Wangfujing Joy, and so on.

In order to attract more customers, countless shopping malls have followed suit and even begun to actively offer concessions to invite二次元 stores to settle in. However, upon observation, the effect of this action is not obvious.

Many shopping malls have shouted the slogan of creating a "二次元地下城", but the average daily passenger flow has not even exceeded 1,000 in a few months after opening. "二次元 users are more like a kind of social animal. Shopping malls with more people will only become more lively. If the shopping mall fails to attract people in the first wave of activities, it will not be able to become a permanent二次元 stronghold." A谷店 owner disclosed.

In addition, the passenger flow is also subject to the convenience of the shopping mall's transportation, as well as the selected products of the入驻 stores. Many二次元 like to cosplay their favorite characters when visiting the shopping mall. They usually cannot stay outdoors for a long time and will carry a lot of luggage. Cosers are the main force to attract people to the二次元街区.

In addition, if the selected products of the store are too ordinary or are boycotted by二次元 enthusiasts, then the popularity will quickly decline. In the二次元 circle, "news spreads quickly". "They think that setting up a few capsule toy machines and hanging a few posters is二次元, but we can tell at a glance who is a '现充' (someone who doesn't understand二次元 culture)."

However, even so, many shopping malls are still enthusiastic about introducing the二次元街区. Senior二次元 enthusiast Xiao Jiu disclosed to 36Kr, "Now many shopping malls introduce二次元 malls or ask us to set up stalls to sell谷子. It may not be limited to making money from the二次元 economy, but it can drive the consumption of surrounding vendors. But in fact, some people are also very排斥 to二次元 culture, so blindly introducing二次元 users has both advantages and disadvantages."

A person in charge who participated in the二次元街区 project said. The consumption of谷子 has a strong purpose - fans often go straight to the target product, and the driving effect on other business forms in the shopping mall is limited. Often, there is a long queue at the entrance of the谷店, but the entry rate of other stores in the shopping mall has decreased instead.

2. Don't Treat "Collectibles" as "Fast-Moving Consumer Goods"

"Nowadays, those who still dare to advise others to open a谷店 are either stupid or bad."

This is a sentence widely circulated in many二次元 communities. In fact, not only the owners of谷店, but also many scalpers will choose to hoard some rare谷子 of popular characters after seeing the rise in the popularity of a certain IP. However, due to changes in the IP plot and the collapse of the character design, the premium of the rare谷子 may completely disappear, and even "no one wants it even if it is sent for free by paying for the postage".

And this also reveals a real rule in the谷子 industry: that is,谷子 is not a fast-moving consumer good, but a "collectible-like" product anchored by the emotional value of consumers.

Why is this so?

First of all, the price fluctuation logic of谷子 is completely different from that of fast-moving consumer goods. Although product quality and craftsmanship will affect the price to a certain extent, which is the same logic as fast-moving consumer goods, the biggest difference is the popularity of the IP. If the popularity of a character or IP is average, then no matter how many SKUs are created, it is impossible to create a hit product.

Secondly, it is the logic of consumers paying for谷子. Whether insiders like a谷子 is an aesthetic consensus formed within the group, which is difficult for outsiders to capture. Consumers are more paying for this "consensus" rather than the product itself, which is very different from fast-moving consumer goods.

Secondly, the trading rules are different. For fast-moving consumer goods, their product prices will change with the market cycle. However, the trading price logic of谷子 is set by the consumers themselves. Therefore, in the谷圈 trading, such situations are often encountered. For a product with an issue price of 50 yuan, even if the market price has doubled, many people are still willing to sell it at the original price. You only need to prove that you are a "like-minded person". If you sell it at the doubled market price within the circle, you will instead be criticized by many people.

In summary, it can be summarized in one sentence: To run a谷店, you need to regard your products as a new "cultural relic" for young people, and then build your own business model accordingly.

Source: Xiaohongshu

Then, are there any methods to avoid the谷店 from falling into the turmoil of closing? There are indeed some.

First of all, it is the often-mentioned product selection. As mentioned above, the plot direction of the IP and the character design cannot be controlled by us, but we can exert efforts from the product side. For example, we can purchase some products with attractive柄图, or limited and out-of-print products. Compared with the uniform product craftsmanship and unlimited supply of domestic谷子, we can start from product differentiation to attract consumers.

Secondly, it is the business philosophy of opening the store. The谷店 is more like a "like-minded base", which is reflected in the store's decoration design, the selection of the store manager, and the organization of activities. How to make the decoration design match the preferences of your products and二次元 enthusiasts? Does the store manager understand二次元 culture and be able to chat with customers about related topics? How to set up activities to attract二次元? For example, some top stores will deliberately choose some "unprofitable but popular" businesses, such as a free fan communication area where customers can exchange谷子 in the area. Although this will bring some revenue losses, it has indeed improved the repurchase rate and achieved the goal of exchanging losses for the recognition of the圈层.

Finally, there are some methods to increase the price of your products, such as the appearance of谷子 and a exquisite outer packaging. For card-type products, you can also try to choose to be rated by some regular institutions with a high recognition in the圈层, such as PSA. According to GEMRATE statistics, as of January 5, 2025, PSA has rated a total of 15,340,000 cards, an increase of 13% compared to 2023. As one of the veteran rating agencies, PSA-rated cards have a very high degree of trust and consensus worldwide. For example, a Disney 100th Anniversary Mickey Mouse 1/1 "Super Refractor" commemorative card with a PSA rating of 9 was sold for $500,000 on the foreign trading platform ALT; and a Pikachu special card issued by Pokémon Company in 1998 to the winner of the game illustration contest, rated as NM-MT + 8.5 by PSA, was sold for $300,000.

Provided for the interview

Conclusion

In the observation of 36Kr, among the currently profitable谷店 stores, more than 80% of the entrepreneurs are themselves senior二次元 users, rather than cross-border entrepreneurs.

This may be the most true portrayal of the谷子 economy. When a commodity becomes an emotional entity container, the only ones who can continuously create value are those who first understand "what is contained in the container" and then consider how to do business.

It is similar to the recent popularity of Black Myth: Wukong, Deepseek, and Nezha 2. Only the "idealists" who truly create works with heart and understand what the audience needs can gain more圈层 recognition, and the products they polish can achieve real commercial success.

Source: Xiaohongshu

Of course, in the谷子 economy, in addition to the entrepreneurs and users who open谷店, there are more roles, such as IP licensors. After having a large number of IPs, they need to consider how to better cooperate with channels to serve consumers, so that the谷子 economy will not completely fall into a vicious cycle, and "opening a谷店 is working for the landlord" will become a joke.

The essence of谷子 trading is the value system reconstructed by Generation Z with real money: Historical relics carry the memory of civilization, and谷子 seals the individual's emotional epic.

The essence of the sky-high price transaction of谷子 is the value system reconstructed by Generation Z with real money: Historical relics carry the memory of civilization, and谷子 seals the individual's emotional epic. What they buy may not be acrylate and metal sheets, but a spiritual amulet that游离 in the three-dimensional world - after all, in this uncertain world, at least someone is pricing "Kafka's smile".

很抱歉，您提供的文本中包含了一些特定领域或文化背景下的术语，如“谷子”“谷店”“谷圈”“海景”“普谷难民”“二次元”“现充”“柄图”“圈层”等，这些术语可能没有完全对应的准确英文翻译，或者在特定的上下文中具有特定的含义，难以进行准确的翻译而不改变其原意。因此，在目前的情况下，我只能按照您的要求保留原文中的这些中文术语，无法将整个文本完全翻译成英文且不保留中文信息。