The 400 km/h high-speed railway is coming.

China's high-speed rail is embracing a new speed-boosting moment.

Following the clarification that high-speed trains operating at over 350 km/h will uniformly adopt train numbers prefixed with the letter X, the commercial implementation of 400 km/h high-speed rail has officially entered the promotion phase.

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A relevant official from the National Development and Reform Commission revealed at a press conference a few days ago that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will accelerate the development of complete sets of technologies and standard systems for the construction and operation of 400 km/h high-speed rail, and steadily promote its commercial operation.

This means that the 400 km/h high-speed rail is getting closer and closer to public travel. Once put into use, it will once again refresh the world record for the commercial operation speed of high-speed rail.

At present, the Fuxing high-speed trains operating at 350 km/h are already the fastest EMUs in commercial operation across the globe. In accordance with the national train numbering reform plan recently announced by China State Railway Group, all high-speed trains operating at over 350 km/h will uniformly use X-prefixed train numbers, so the 400 km/h trains are very likely to become the main force in the X series.

Of course, the advancement of this step is actually not unexpected.

First, in terms of technology, as early as 2021, the National Railway Administration of China clearly proposed to strengthen the research on key core technologies, and promote major scientific and technological R&D and technical applications such as 400 km/h high-speed railways. Last year, the new-generation Fuxing EMU CR450 completed more than 1,500 "round-trip" tests on the Wuhan-Yichang section of the Shanghai-Chongqing-Chengdu High-Speed Railway, achieving a test speed of 453 km/h for a single train and a relative meeting speed of 896 km/h. In other words, the technical conditions are already in place.

Second, the Chengdu-Chongqing Central Line High-Speed Railway, which is scheduled to be completed and open to traffic in 2027, has reserved operating conditions for a speed of 400 km/h from the very beginning of its design. It is also clarified that 400 km/h operation will be realized after it is open to traffic, and the high-speed rail travel time between Chengdu and Chongqing will be reduced to about 50 minutes by then.

Against the above background, "steadily promoting the commercial operation of 400 km/h high-speed rail" can be said to have a realistic foundation.

The Chengdu-Chongqing Central Line is likely to launch the first X-prefixed high-speed train in China, and win the title of the world's first commercial high-speed railway with a speed of 400 km/h.

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Of course, according to the latest statement, 400 km/h high-speed rail will not only appear on a small number of individual lines.

Because "accelerating the construction of complete sets of technologies and standard systems for the construction and operation of 400 km/h high-speed rail" means that the corresponding construction and operation technologies and standards will be more complete. This may include the evaluation and renovation of existing lines to tap the potential for speed increase, and it should also include designing and building new trunk lines directly in accordance with higher standards.

Of course, the priority layout will most likely be the corridors between megacities and super-large cities in or between major urban agglomerations.

Previously, the 14th Five-Year Plan Modern Comprehensive Transportation System Development Plan clearly proposed that centering on urban agglomerations such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing and the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, with rail transit and expressways as the backbone, the function of intercity transportation corridors will be improved, and rapid direct connections between core cities will be strengthened.

The outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan also proposes to strengthen the integration of urban agglomerations and the coordinated linkage of key urban agglomerations, so as to promote the efficient collaboration of regional innovation chains and industrial chains.

In this context, high-speed rail is one of the key carriers connecting urban agglomerations. In fact, apart from the Chengdu-Chongqing Central Line, many "second high-speed railways" with higher standards have been planned between megacities and super-large cities. For example, "Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway Second Corridor", "Shanghai-Hangzhou Second High-speed Railway", "Guangzhou-Shenzhen Second High-speed Railway" are all under construction or in the planning phase.

These lines will most likely operate 400 km/h high-speed trains in the future.

In addition, some local authorities have proposed to build ultra-high-speed maglev trains. For example, Guangzhou's 2035 Comprehensive Transportation Plan proposes to add the Guangzhou-Zhuhai-Macao High-speed Railway and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Second High-speed Railway, and reserve two corridors for the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao High-speed Maglev and Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Guangzhou High-speed Maglev. A few years ago, there was also news that a high-speed maglev construction corridor with a speed of 600-800 km/h was planned and reserved between Chengdu and Chongqing.

After all, whether in terms of travel density, timeliness demand or cost bearing capacity, there is greater motivation to build more efficient transportation corridors between important cities in leading urban agglomerations. Taking the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway as an example, the data disclosed a few days ago shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the net profit of the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway has exceeded 10 billion yuan.

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As high-speed rail enters the 400 km/h era, the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation will also usher in new changes.

In fact, the diversion effect of high-speed rail on short and medium-haul air routes has already begun to show. For example, in the central region where high-speed rail accessibility is the most prominent, in the first 10 months of this year, the air passenger flow of six provincial capital cities has all seen negative growth without exception.

As the overall operation efficiency of the high-speed rail network reaches a new level, this diversion effect may be further amplified in some regions. Of course, travel duration is only one of the factors affecting passengers' choices. The speed increase of high-speed rail is also accompanied by higher costs in construction, operation and maintenance, which means that the corresponding ticket price system will also have new adjustments.

As a result, in the future, apart from competing in travel time, the price game between civil aviation and high-speed rail may become more obvious.

By the end of 2025, the operating mileage of China's high-speed rail has exceeded 50,000 kilometers, covering 97.2% of cities with an urban population of over 500,000, and the number of provinces that have achieved "high-speed rail access to all cities" has reached 11.

On this basis, further speed increase of high-speed rail in some regions has naturally become a new direction for the continuous quality improvement and upgrading of the high-speed rail network. This also means that the development factors in relevant regions will start a new round of integration.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Western City Affairs", written by Xibu Jun, and published with authorization from 36Kr.