U.S. corporations have pushed their AI-related debt to a new high.

Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, recently stated that the investment growth of hyperscale data centers in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector is expected to peak in the coming weeks.

Specifically, he pointed out that the year-on-year change in the proportion of hyperscale data center investment in U.S. GDP is expected to peak at about 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Top hyperscale data center operators — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and SpaceX — have poured record capital into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Their capital expenditure is expected to reach approximately $725 billion to $800 billion this year alone, up 64% from 2025.

Alphabet and Microsoft will release their earnings reports on Wednesday, while Amazon will do so on Thursday, giving investors a glimpse of their follow-up investment plans.

Enterprises Are Accelerating Debt Financing

At the same time, the surge in AI investment is pushing enterprises to speed up debt borrowing. It is reported that the issuance scale of U.S. investment-grade bonds this year is expected to hit a new all-time high on Monday, exceeding the $1.75 trillion record set during the pandemic-triggered borrowing boom in 2020. According to statistics, after the transactions on Monday are priced, the total issuance scale since the start of this year will reach $1.76 trillion.

Many analysts had previously predicted that the annual issuance scale would hit a new annual record, driven by expectations of sharp growth in spending in the artificial intelligence sector. Since 2026, the AI-related financing scale in the global high-grade bond market has exceeded $300 billion, nearly three times the full-year figure of 2025. There have been 9 single transactions in the U.S. this year with an issuance scale of at least $25 billion, all of which came from technology companies except for Skydance Corp.'s acquisition financing.

"We are witnessing one of the most capital-intensive corporate cycles in decades," said Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The Impact of AI Investment on the Stock Market and the Economy

Goldman Sachs predicts that in the optimistic scenario, the wealth effect brought by AI investment will push AI-related stocks up by 55%, other stocks up by 20%, and the overall market up by 30%, and the wealth effect will boost the consumption growth rate by 0.7 percentage points. But in the pessimistic scenario (AI stocks fall by 40%, other stocks fall by 15%, and the overall market falls by 20%), the wealth effect will drag down the consumption growth rate by 0.3 percentage points.

AI investment is transmitted through the path of "rising stock market → increased household wealth → higher consumer spending". The bank noted in a previous report that over the past two years, the wealth effect has boosted the consumption growth rate by an average of about 0.3 percentage points per year, of which roughly 0.2 percentage points can be attributed to returns on AI-related stocks. It is expected to drive a 0.4 percentage point increase in the coming year, mainly fueled by the strong performance of AI stocks.

Sean Spencer, President of Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), previously warned that the wealth effect brought by the rally of the AI sector in the stock market is driving consumption, but this also means that once the market adjusts, the impact will be transmitted to U.S. consumption immediately through the wealth effect, which is also one of the biggest financial risks that global financiers are focusing on at present.

Hatzius previously pointed out that the contribution of AI investment to U.S. GDP growth in 2025 was "basically zero", mainly because a large amount of hardware relies on imports, which is offset by import deductions in GDP accounting. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the data center investment boom ends, the U.S. GDP level may drop by about 2 percentage points.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "CLS", author: Huang Junzhi, published with authorization from 36Kr.