Half of the top ten heavy positions of the fund solely managed by Zhang Kun are invested in the global AI semiconductor industry.

According to the latest disclosure in the third quarterly report, the asset management scale of E Fund Asia Select, the only independently managed product of Zhang Kun, is 3.69 billion yuan. Although it only accounts for one-eighth of the total managed scale, it is the key to interpreting his latest position adjustment ideas and can best "represent" Zhang Kun's investment logic.

As of the end of the third quarter of this year, the total scale of the 3 products currently managed by Zhang Kun is 29.307 billion yuan, which is 1.488 billion yuan less than the total scale of 30.795 billion yuan at the middle of the year on a month-on-month basis. After stepping down from some products and continuous shrinkage of management scale, the total managed scale of Zhang Kun has decreased by 105.171 billion yuan in total compared with the historical peak of 134.478 billion yuan set in the middle of 2021, with a decrease of 78.21%.

After co-managing with Zhang Qi for more than 3 months, Zhang Kun stepped down from E Fund High-Quality Enterprise 3-Year on September 30 this year due to work needs. The total scale of this product at the end of the third quarter is 1.382 billion yuan, down 7.29% month-on-month, 10.316 billion yuan less than its historical peak of 11.698 billion yuan, with a reduction ratio of 88.19%.

From the perspective of overall heavy positions, according to Wind statistics, compared with the end of the second quarter, Huazhu Group-S and Sichuan Investment Energy newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks of all products managed by Zhang Kun in the third quarter, while SMIC and Dongshan Precision withdrew from the list. Meanwhile, the ranking of CNOOC rose from the fourth largest heavyweight stock to the top heavyweight stock of Zhang Kun, while Tencent Holdings fell from the first place to the second place.

As the only product independently managed by Zhang Kun at present, E Fund Asia Select focuses on deploying global AI semiconductors. Half of the top ten heavyweight stocks at the end of the third quarter are related individual stocks, namely TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, ASML and KLA.

In his view, the large adjustment of the technology sector in the third quarter is partly due to the large increase in the first half of the year, and the squeeze of peripheral leverage as well as the medium and long-term contradiction between AI capital investment and return are also the reasons for the adjustment. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the prospect of the technology sector remains optimistic after adjustment, and some US-listed AI companies with reasonable valuations are still favored.

The only independently managed product: half of the top ten heavy positions are bet on global AI semiconductors

Wind data shows that as of the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of all products managed by Zhang Kun are in order: CNOOC, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yum China, Luzhou Laojiao, Alibaba-W, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Huazhu Group-S, Sichuan Investment Energy. CNOOC is included in the top ten heavyweight stocks of all 3 products under Zhang Kun at present, which is the only consensus heavy target in the third quarter.

E Fund Asia Select is the only independently managed product of Zhang Kun at present, which can best represent his personal judgment. Compared with other co-managed products, this "Asia Select" has focused on deploying global AI semiconductors. As of the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of this product are in order: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, CNOOC, Futu Holdings, Huazhu Group-S, Tencent Holdings, ASML, Alphabet Inc.-A, KLA. Compared with the middle of the year, Alphabet Inc.-A newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, while Alibaba-W withdrew from the list; at the same time, KLA, the leading US semiconductor testing equipment enterprise, fell from the fifth largest heavyweight stock to the tenth largest heavyweight stock.

In the same period, the proportion of assets invested in the United States, Hong Kong of China, South Korea and Taiwan of China by E Fund Asia Select was 33.4%, 30.72%, 21.68% and 8.65% respectively. Compared with the end of the second quarter, the proportion of Hong Kong stock positions declined slightly, while the proportion of assets positions in the United States, South Korea and Taiwan of China increased synchronously.

As of the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund Blue Chip are in order: Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, Tencent Holdings, Yum China, Luzhou Laojiao, Alibaba-W, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Sichuan Investment Energy, Eoptolink. Compared with the middle of the year, Sichuan Investment Energy and Eoptolink newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, while SMIC and Dongshan Precision withdrew from the list; at the same time, Tencent Holdings fell slightly from the top heavyweight stock to the third largest heavyweight stock.

In the same period, the total market value of this product invested in Hong Kong stocks was 6.041 billion yuan, accounting for 31.91% of the net value; the total market value of Hong Kong stock positions increased by 914 million yuan month-on-month, and the position proportion increased by 6.8%.

As of the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund High-Quality Select Mixed (QDII) are in order: CNOOC, Huazhu Group-S, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yum China, Focus Media. Compared with the middle of the year, the top ten heavyweight individual stocks of this product remain unchanged, only the ranking is adjusted: CNOOC rose from the third largest heavyweight stock to the top heavyweight stock, Tencent Holdings rose from the eighth largest to the third largest heavyweight stock, while Kweichow Moutai fell from the second largest to the fifth largest heavyweight stock.

In the same period, the proportion of assets invested in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong of China by this product was 45.85% and 41.78% respectively, and the proportion of Hong Kong stock positions increased compared with the end of the previous quarter.

Zhang Kun: Prefer leading companies whose market share rises against the trend

In the third quarter, the stock positions of these 3 products all increased to some extent, and the structure was adjusted. E Fund High-Quality Select increased the allocation proportion of banking, pharmaceutical and other industries, and reduced the allocation proportion of food and beverage and other industries; E Fund Blue Chip increased the allocation proportion of real estate, public utilities, pharmaceutical and other industries, and reduced the allocation proportion of electronics and other industries. E Fund Asia Select adjusted the structure of technology, finance, consumer and other industries, and increased the allocation proportion of the US, South Korea and Taiwan of China markets.

In terms of individual stocks, Zhang Kun's team still holds high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns and strong competitiveness.

Regarding the reason for the large adjustment of the technology sector in the third quarter, Zhang Kun summarized: on the one hand, there is the factor of large increase in the first half of the year, and at the same time, the squeeze of peripheral leverage and the medium and long-term contradiction between AI capital investment and return are all reasons for the adjustment. In the medium and long term, the team still sees positive progress in the technology industry, including the continuous implementation of Agent, the expansion of C-end AI and the overall closed loop of cloud revenue. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the technology sector has experienced a large adjustment. Even under the pressure of macro interest rates, we can still see that some US-listed AI-related companies with reasonable valuations and steady growth once hit new stage highs recently, and the overall prospect remains optimistic.

Zhang Kun always believes that the business model of an enterprise (the business itself can generate abundant free cash flow and distribute it wisely) and competitive moat (has a significant leading position compared with peers, and has strong bargaining power compared with upstream and downstream) are very important. However, enterprises with similar business models and competitive moats may still show significant operational gaps in different environments. A long-term upward economy is the soil for the long-term growth of enterprises, which plays a very important role. The impact of basic probability is profound in the long run, which largely affects whether the free cash flow generated by the company in 5-10 years can significantly exceed the current level. The team will also continue to expand the research scope and strive to include more high-quality enterprises into the portfolio.

In his view, with the introduction of China's "15th Five-Year Plan", the policy direction is expected to turn to a policy cycle of restoring domestic demand and boosting consumption, the domestic deflation cycle is coming to an end, and resident consumption is also expected to recover. The proportion of China's resident consumption in GDP (currently about 40%) still has much room for improvement in the medium and long term.

Based on the current situation, Zhang Kun prefers to invest in leading companies in various industries that can still increase their market share in the face of adversity.

This article is from the WeChat official account "CLS", written by Feng Qijuan, authorized by 36Kr for release.