The No.1 city in Northeast China has been overtaken by Xiamen.
The pressure on Shenyang is incredibly high.
Under the official grand narrative framework, Shenyang shoulders the important mission of Northeast China's revitalization in the new era. However, the reality is that Shenyang's GDP growth rate has continued to slow down for two consecutive years. This year, it has been surpassed by Xiamen for three consecutive quarters, and its national ranking has dropped by one more place.
In the territorial spatial plans that were successively approved at the end of 2024, Shenyang is positioned as the city with the highest status and the most significant functional mandate among all cities in Northeast China.
In terms of urban positioning, Shenyang's status goes beyond the scope of Northeast China, positioning it as an international central city in Northeast Asia. Shenyang is not only the center of Northeast China, but also aims to become the center of the entire Northeast Asia. Changchun and Harbin are positioned as important central cities in the Northeast region, while Dalian is positioned as an important coastal central city.
In terms of functional positioning, Shenyang also ranks at the top. As for the advanced manufacturing base, Shenyang is prefixed with "national", while Dalian, Changchun and Harbin are all prefixed with "Northeast China".
Besides that, the most direct statement that defines Shenyang as the leading city in Northeast China is "promoting Shenyang to demonstrate greater responsibility and achievement in the new era of Northeast China's revitalization".
This is a statement that the other three cities do not have.
Clearly, in the official context, the important mission of driving and leading the rejuvenation of the Northeast region falls on Shenyang's shoulders. This point can also be clearly perceived from the fact that Shenyang got the first national-level metropolitan area in Northeast China, and Liaoning became the first province in Northeast China with high-speed rail access to all its cities, which fully demonstrates the policy tilt and recognition for Shenyang.
Shenyang's GDP growth rate is still slowing down, and its driving force is getting weaker and weaker. In 2025, Shenyang's actual GDP growth rate was only 2%, ranking second from the bottom among 27 provincial capitals in Chinese mainland, only higher than Taiyuan. Its GDP increment last year was only 6.783 billion yuan.
The growth rate remains very slow this year, so much so that starting from the first quarter of this year, Shenyang's GDP has been surpassed by Xiamen, which ranks right behind it.
In the first quarter, Shenyang's GDP reached 217.85 billion yuan, while Xiamen's was 222.607 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, Shenyang's GDP reached 443.01 billion yuan, while Xiamen's was 446.926 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, Shenyang's GDP reached 680.41 billion yuan, up 1.8% year on year at constant prices. Xiamen's GDP in the first three quarters reached 693.151 billion yuan, up 5.1% year on year at constant prices.
From the perspective of increment, there is no suspense that Xiamen will officially overtake Shenyang by the end of this year. Xiamen will also enter the ranks of trillion-yuan GDP cities before Shenyang by the end of next year.
Behind this overtaking, Shenyang's growth stall is a key factor, and Xiamen's steady growth also matters. The status swap is completed between the one slowing down and the other speeding up.
Why Did Shenyang Stall
As a city known for its industry, the continuous slowdown of Shenyang's growth is inevitably dragged down by its industry, and in addition, the three major drivers of the economy have all stalled collectively.
First, look at the industrial sector: For example, in 2025, the added value of industries above designated size in Shenyang decreased by 6%, of which the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 7.4%. In addition, the profits of industries above designated size decreased by 13.8% in the first 11 months of last year, and the total profit and tax of industries above designated size decreased by 8.7%. The downward trend continues this year. Looking at the data for the first 8 months released by Shenyang Bureau of Statistics:
The added value of industries above designated size decreased by 6.7%, of which the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 9.9%.
Behind the industrial stall is the decline of the automotive industry, its core pillar industry that accounts for half of Shenyang's total industrial output.
First, look at a set of data to understand the importance of the automotive industry to Shenyang. Like Guangzhou and Wuhan, Shenyang has a "dominant single industry" pattern in the automotive sector, and this pattern is even more prominent in Shenyang than in the other two cities.
The automotive industry in Guangzhou accounts for a quarter of its total industry. In the past two years, Guangzhou's growth rate has been at the bottom among the top 10 cities, precisely because of the adjustment of its automotive industry. Shenyang's automotive industry accounts for half of its total industry, and the other half is occupied by the aerospace industry.
Referring to the 2023 data, the revenue of industries above designated size in Shenyang reached 688.08 billion yuan in 2023. Among them, the automotive manufacturing industry achieved an operating revenue of 334.91 billion yuan, which is the only 100-billion-yuan industry in Shenyang. A single industry accounts for 48.7% of the city's total manufacturing operating revenue. Among this, the OEM manufacturing for foreign auto brands such as BMW and General Motors is the top priority.
In 2024, the operating revenue of Shenyang's automotive industry dropped to 275.02 billion yuan. The total operating revenue of industries above designated size in Shenyang that year was 723.39 billion yuan, and the proportion of the automotive industry in the city's total industrial operating revenue dropped to 38%. The 2025 industrial operating revenue data has not been released yet, but the released growth rate shows that the automotive manufacturing industry decreased by 10.3%.
Shenyang has not released data on the automotive industry for the first three quarters of 2026, but it can be reflected through other data:
First, automobile output has declined. In the first three quarters of this year, Liaoning's automobile output reached 545,300 units, a decrease of 50,400 units compared with 595,700 units in the same period of last year.
Liaoning's automobile output is almost entirely concentrated in Shenyang, so the trend of Liaoning represents the trend of Shenyang. In addition, the Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics disclosed that the automotive manufacturing industry in Liaoning decreased by 16.3% in the first three quarters. For Shenyang, which mainly relies on the automotive industry, the degree of hardship can be imagined.
Under the disruption of new energy vehicles, traditional fuel vehicle hubs such as Guangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan and Changchun have all been affected. Some cities adjusted quickly and got out of the predicament, while others lagged behind, and Shenyang is the latter. In 2024, Shenyang's total automobile production reached 658,500 units, a decrease of 18.4% compared with 2023.
Second, BMW, Shenyang's largest tax payer, is facing declining sales, revenue and profits.
In the first half of this year, BMW Group's operating revenue reached 62.266 billion euros, down 8.01% year on year. Its pre-tax profit reached 4.045 billion euros, down 29.4% year on year. In terms of sales, a total of 1.1567 million new vehicles were delivered globally, down 4.2% year on year. Among them, sales in the Chinese market reached 261,773 units, down 20.4% year on year.
Then look at the three major economic drivers. In the first 8 months of Shenyang: fixed asset investment decreased by 29.5%; consumption decreased by 3.8%; exports decreased by 9.4%. With all three major drivers stalling, Shenyang has managed to maintain positive growth, which is already quite remarkable.
The Awakening of Xiamen
High housing prices have produced a serious crowding-out effect on Xiamen, which has also made Xiamen fully awaken.
At its peak, Xiamen's housing price exceeded 45,000 yuan per square meter, higher than that of Guangzhou, ranking the fourth nationwide, only after Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen. This has also brought a serious crowding-out effect, the most obvious feature of which is industrial hollowing-out.
There are two sets of supporting data: First, from 2021 to 2024, the total industrial output value of Xiamen basically stagnated, and even shrank significantly in 2023.
Second, its core industry, the electronic information industry, has shrunk significantly. According to the data disclosed by Xiamen, the total output value of Xiamen's computer, communication and electronic information industry reached 172.6 billion yuan in 2018, and rose rapidly to 268.2 billion yuan in 2019.
It reached its peak in 2021 with a total output value of 304.3 billion yuan. The total industrial output value of Xiamen that year was 822.8 billion yuan, which means that the electronic information industry alone accounted for 37% of the city's total industrial output value, more than one third.
However, it has been declining ever since, and the total output value of the electronic information industry dropped to 224.6 billion yuan in 2024. The 2025 data has not been released yet, but the industry has already bottomed out and rebounded.
Xiamen Bureau of Statistics disclosed that the total added value of industries in 2025 reached 258.2 billion yuan, up 8.7% year on year. Among the 35 major industrial categories of industries above designated size, 20 of them achieved positive added value growth.
The top three industries in total volume are as follows: the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 15.3%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 19.0%, and the metal products industry grew by 54.7%. The total added value of the three major industries accounts for 49.7% of the added value of industries above designated size.
In addition, the railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 17.5%, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry grew by 17.6%, and the metal products, machinery and equipment repair industry grew by 12.1%. The added value of high-tech industries above designated size grew by 18.1%, accounting for 41.3% of the added value of industries above designated size.
The "15th Five-Year Plan" released by Xiamen at the beginning of this year clearly states: Accelerate the construction of a strong city with advanced manufacturing, promote new-type industrialization in depth, fully implement the advanced manufacturing doubling plan, and focus on building trillion-level industrial clusters and 100-billion-yuan leading manufacturing enterprises.
In September, Xiamen also released the "Special Plan for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries of Xiamen during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period", joining the vast team of cities that are strengthening their industries.
This document demonstrates Xiamen's determination to revitalize its industries.
To sum it up in one sentence: Stabilize traditional advantages, expand emerging industries, seize future tracks, and at the same time truly connect scientific research, enterprises, capital and application scenarios, to promote Xiamen to upgrade from "industries with unique features" to "industries with large scale, leading enterprises, core technologies and complete clusters".
Xiamen's industrial goals for the next five years are: By 2030, the development level of the city's strategic emerging industries will be comprehensively improved. The output value of industrial strategic emerging industries will account for 45% of the total output value of industries above designated size. Four 100-billion-yuan strategic emerging industry clusters will be cultivated. Breakthroughs will be made in key core technologies and cutting-edge leading technologies in the industrial sector. The number of high-quality enterprises will increase significantly, and the openness, inclusiveness and innovation synergy of the industrial ecosystem will be significantly enhanced.
How is the effect? As mentioned above, Xiamen's industrial added value has rebounded last year.
This year, both the economic growth rate and industrial growth rate are performing well. In the first three quarters, Xiamen's GDP growth rate reached 5.2%, 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average, and its absolute GDP value has surpassed Shenyang.
In terms of industry, in the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size of the whole city increased by 13.2% year on year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year, continuing the good double-digit growth trend since May of last year.
This industrial growth rate ranks among the top among key cities. Among them, the added value of industries above designated size in Siming District increased by 13.7% year on year, Huli District by 14.0%, Haicang District by 11.2%, Jimei District by 10.3%, Tong'an District by 19.7%, and Xiang'an District by 10.0%. This means that the industrial boom in Xiamen is not concentrated in one or two districts, but all districts are growing upward collectively.
From the data, it is obvious that Xiamen is completely different from the past two years. Its determination to revive industries is clearly visible, and the overall industrial performance presented by the data is also quite impressive.
The status swap between Shenyang and Xiamen, in a narrow sense, is just a ranking swap between two second-tier cities. In a broad sense, it fully confirms a sentence I have been emphasizing: China's urban development has entered the era of hard technology, industry determines success or failure, and industry is the clear dividing line that defines the strength of cities in the future.
This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Urban Finance", written by Yu Fei, and authorized for release by 36Kr.