51.22 Billion Person-Times of Cross-Regional Trips: Where Does the Self-Driving Economy Make Money?

A family driving to a neighboring county may not buy tickets for scenic spots, but they may pay road tolls, parking fees, have a meal, and take away several bags of local specialties. During the self-driving trip, consumption is scattered among different merchants. Relying on a general tourism revenue sheet, it is difficult to clearly identify who has actually obtained business opportunities.

The Ministry of Transport announced on October 26 that the cross-regional population mobility reached 51.22 billion person-times in the first three quarters of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; among which, the highway sector recorded 46.72 billion person-times, up 1.0% year on year. The cross-regional population mobility in September increased by 5.1% year on year, which is the performance of a single month and cannot replace the cumulative growth rate of the first three quarters.

Calculated based on the announced total volume, the highway sector accounts for about 91.2%. This shows that when observing population mobility, we cannot only focus on airports and high-speed railway stations, nor can we hastily deduce that "90% of people are taking self-driving tours". To find where the self-driving economy generates profits, we need to trace further from transportation statistics to household ledgers and merchant cash flows.

Distinguish between person-times and tourists first

Cross-regional population mobility reflects the flow of people for business, tourism and other purposes between regions, between cities, and between urban and rural areas. It aggregates the completed figures of railway, highway, waterway and civil aviation, excluding urban passenger transport volume counted separately. It measures the scale of mobility, and does not count how much money each person spends.

The same person who makes multiple cross-regional trips can be counted multiple times in the person-times statistics. 51.22 billion person-times does not mean 51.22 billion independent travelers, let alone multiply it by an assumed per capita tourism consumption to calculate the market revenue.

Highway passenger flow includes both commercial passenger transport and non-commercial passenger car trips; the latter may be for visiting relatives, commuting, handling affairs or traveling. A large proportion of highway trips does not mean that all itineraries pass through expressway service areas, let alone that people stay in hotels every time.

Highways can connect scattered origins and destinations, meeting the needs of traveling with multiple people, carrying luggage and stopping along the way, which is the entry point for analyzing the self-driving business. As for whether high-frequency short-distance self-driving trips increase and which routes are more popular, independent evidence such as distance, purpose and time period is still required.

A family's travel expenses cover more than fuel and electricity

For families, first separate transportation costs from destination consumption. Round-trip road and bridge tolls, fuel or electricity costs, and parking fees belong to the transportation account; dining, accommodation and shopping are the other part. When comparing different travel modes, the commonly incurred consumption should not all be counted as extra expenses for self-driving trips.

Multiple people in the same car can share part of the cost, but self-driving is not necessarily more cost-effective for all distances and number of people. Compared with railway or air travel, we also need to include the transfer costs after arriving at the station, vehicle usage at the destination and actual additional expenses, instead of only comparing the ticket price and the cost of a full tank of fuel.

For example, assuming that the round-trip road toll is 80 yuan, fuel and electricity cost 60 yuan, and parking fee is 20 yuan, the total transportation expenditure is 160 yuan; for a family of four, the per capita cost is 40 yuan. This is only a calculation under given conditions, not the actual price, and catering and accommodation expenses need to be listed separately.

If you already own a vehicle, you can calculate the additional expenditure for a single trip first; when evaluating the annual car maintenance cost, you also need to include depreciation, insurance and maintenance. Electric vehicles should also be accounted for according to the actual charging locations and prices, instead of using the home charging price to replace the cost of each kilowatt-hour of electricity on the way.

Time also affects choices. Less detours, easy parking, and planned energy replenishment may be more attractive than a single low price. Families who make a round trip on the same day may increase catering and retail consumption, but may not have accommodation needs, which will change the order-receiving opportunities for merchants along the route.

Service areas sell services needed during the trip

Service areas integrate rest, energy replenishment, catering and retail. For operators, the traffic passing through the road section is only the first layer. There are several choices between vehicles passing by, entering the service area, walking into the store, and actually making payment. The parking of charging vehicles does not guarantee that the accompanying people will definitely make purchases.

The demand for energy replenishment shows obvious temporal and spatial differences. According to a report by China National Radio Network on October 5, the Ministry of Transport judged at that time that 79 expressway service areas were expected to have extremely busy charging services the next day. This is a demand forecast for a specific date, and cannot be regarded as the annual utilization rate or profit proof of these stations.

For the charging business, we need to break down the electricity fee, service fee and the actual income obtained by all parties, and then calculate the equipment depreciation, power distribution investment, site and operation and maintenance costs. Queues during holidays may indicate tight local supply; to judge whether the business is profitable throughout the year, we still need to observe the usual utilization rate and continuous costs.

The accounting for catering and retail is different. After passenger flow conversion, costs such as raw materials, labor, rent or revenue sharing, and losses need to be deducted. The income obtained by the service area operator and the merchants should also be viewed separately according to the contract, and the same sales amount cannot be counted repeatedly.

By connecting the flow lines of parking, charging and dining, providing clear prices, stable supplies and easy-to-carry products, there will be more opportunities to turn necessary stops into valid orders. The number of facilities and the length of stay cannot replace transaction records alone.

County-level consumption needs to retain the itinerary for a period of time

When arriving in the county, opportunities may lie in parking lots, restaurants, homestays, agricultural product stores and leisure projects. However, the distance from the expressway exit to the commercial district, the convenience of parking, and whether the consumption content can form a half-day or one-day itinerary will affect whether families are willing to stop.

A store suitable for taking photos does not mean that surrounding merchants can all benefit. Local operators need to observe whether tourists enter the store, consume across different stores, stay overnight, and whether repurchases can be generated after the products are taken away. These are the evidences for shifting from check-in popularity to stable operation.

County-level merchants also need to distinguish the relationship between non-local consumption and local consumption. The increase in orders on a certain street may partly come from the transfer of orders from nearby blocks. To evaluate the overall increment, we need to expand the observation scope, combine the tourist source samples and data from multiple merchants, and cannot use the prosperity of one store to represent the whole county.

Making local specialties into easy-to-carry specifications, providing clear after-sales and delivery methods can reduce purchase concerns. However, distribution, packaging and return also have costs, which should be accounted for together with the selling price and gross profit, and online repurchases cannot all be regarded as extra profits.

What accounts need to be checked to turn passenger flow into revenue flow

To verify the operation of service areas, we can continuously check the number of vehicles entering the area, the number of valid transactions, average customer unit price and income after deducting refunds; for observing charging stations, we look at the actual charging volume, available equipment, turnover and cost. The statistical cycle should be consistent, and holidays and weekdays should be separated.

When observing county-level accommodation, we should look at the actually sold room nights and transaction prices; when observing catering and retail, we should look at valid orders, refund losses and received payment. Person-times, vehicle times, orders and room nights are different units and cannot be multiplied together.

These records also need to be connected to profits and cash. If the number of orders increases, but discounts, temporary labor and losses increase synchronously, profits may not grow at the same speed; even if the platform shows transactions, settlement and refunds need to be checked. At least after following up a complete operation cycle, we can judge how much profit the prosperity has left.

The 51.22 billion person-times only provides the background of population mobility. The business of the self-driving economy occurs at specific moments when families need to rest, replenish energy, eat and stay. Whoever can provide convenient and reliable services, and turn orders into profitable and collectible transactions, will have more opportunities to capture this part of demand.