Where is the Apple Duo card scheduled for January next year?
For domestic supply chain enterprises, the ramp-up pace of iPhone Duo is directly tied to the order scale and delivery timeline. In the cycle of rising memory prices and widespread price hikes for mobile phones, can this high-priced new model maintain sustained volume growth? Which segments of the domestic supply chain will capture the incremental volume brought by this ramp-up?
On October 23, Apple's first foldable smartphone iPhone Duo went on sale globally, with the starting price of the Chinese mainland version at 15,999 yuan. After pre-orders opened on October 16, the delivery time shown on Apple's official website was soon scheduled to January 2027. Apple publicly stated that the pre-order demand for iPhone Duo is "extraordinary", and the company is going all out to deliver products to consumers as soon as possible.
The repeated postponement of delivery dates is rooted in production capacity constraints. Compared with traditional iPhones, the foldable display, hinge and final assembly of iPhone Duo all adopt new processes, making the mass production ramp-up slower than that of bar-type smartphones. Reporters learned from supply chain enterprises that the full-scale mass production of the complete iPhone Duo unit did not start until the day pre-orders opened. Market research institution Counterpoint Research estimates that the shipment volume of iPhone Duo this year will be about 6 million units, significantly lower than Apple's earlier plan.
Larger shipment scale will not come until next year, and the ramp-up of iPhone Duo is also related to the growth of the entire foldable phone category. Market research firm IDC predicted in August this year that without Apple entering the market, the global shipment of foldable smartphones would see a double-digit year-on-year decline this year. Multiple interviewees told reporters that the supply chain has already started material preparation and capacity expansion for the ramp-up of iPhone Duo next year.
Smooth volume growth next year still depends on market demand. At present, rising memory chip prices are pushing up mobile phone prices and curbing replacement demand. Preliminary data released by IDC on October 14 shows that in the third quarter of 2026, global smartphone shipments fell 22% year-on-year. Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President of IDC Global Devices, believes that the upward price pressure is shifting from phone manufacturers to consumers, and many consumers choose to continue using their old phones.
For domestic supply chain enterprises, the ramp-up pace of iPhone Duo is directly tied to the order scale and delivery timeline. In the cycle of rising memory prices and widespread price hikes for mobile phones, can this high-priced new model maintain sustained volume growth? Which segments of the domestic supply chain will capture the incremental volume brought by this ramp-up?
Ramp-up Pace
The ramp-up pace of iPhone Duo is determined by production capacity this year, and by demand next year. Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, told the Economic Observer that the previously circulated industry claim that iPhone Duo would ship 10 million units in 2026 came from a relatively aggressive production and shipment plan formulated by Apple around the end of 2025. However, in the first half of this year, there were some issues with the production stability and delivery timeline of foldable OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) panels, the hinge went through design adjustments, and the time for final assembly to reach a stable state also exceeded expectations, leading to downward revisions of production and shipment targets.
The difficulties are not concentrated in a single segment: panels, hinges and final assembly all need to stabilize synchronously in large-scale production. As production gradually stabilizes, Counterpoint Research expects iPhone Duo's output to continue rising in November and December, and Apple will prioritize supply to major markets including the United States and China, while supply in other markets may be more strained.
In addition, there is still room for additional orders this year. A marketing executive from a large precision manufacturing enterprise in South China told the Economic Observer that the currently locked formal procurement orders for iPhone Duo are about 3.5 million units, and the available materials can support the production of about 7.2 million units. If post-launch sales maintain the same momentum as during the pre-order period, the annual order volume may rise to 6 million to 6.5 million units.
Apple's orders to the supply chain are usually divided into two parts: one is the formal procurement order, which generally remains unchanged after being locked; the other is the rolling updated demand forecast, the part outside the lock-up period is reviewed every week and may be slightly adjusted at any time.
At present, the shipment scale for next year is expected to expand significantly. The aforementioned marketing executive mentioned that the preliminary forecast currently obtained by the supply chain is that iPhone Duo will ship 8 million to 10 million units in the first quarter of 2027. He judged that from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2027, the planned production capacity of iPhone Duo can reach 30 million units, while the actual output will depend on market feedback and yield rate (the proportion of qualified products in total output), among which the yield rate is the main constraint.
Whether these forecasts can be fulfilled depends on whether demand can be sustained under price constraints. In fact, the impact of rising memory prices on Apple is relatively small. Relevant IDC data shows that in the third quarter of 2026, Apple's smartphone shipments fell 4% year-on-year, a far smaller decline than the overall market, and its market share rose from 18.2% in the same period last year to 22.4%. Jeronimo also pointed out that in a shrinking market, manufacturers with scale advantages, stable supply and high-end product portfolios are continuing to gain market share.
However, the pressure brought by rising memory costs has not peaked. Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director of IDC Global Devices, said in mid-October that the cost of memory chips has risen by about 350% compared to last year and is still rising, the most difficult time has not yet come, and the mobile phone market has not yet hit bottom.
Compared with other foldable smartphones, the pricing of iPhone Duo is not particularly high. Its starting price in the United States is 1,999 US dollars, only 100 US dollars higher than the Galaxy Z Fold8 released by Samsung in July. Liz Lee believes that as a first-generation product, Apple's pricing is quite competitive, existing iPhone Pro users and early adopters will bring strong demand, and the large screen and overall interactive experience will also boost initial sales.
However, the Pro user group targeted by iPhone Duo is also facing price hikes. The starting prices of the Chinese mainland versions of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, released by Apple in September, are 9,999 yuan and 10,999 yuan respectively, both 1,000 yuan higher than the previous generation; the starting price of the Chinese mainland version of iPhone Duo is 5,000 yuan higher than that of iPhone 18 Pro Max.
In fact, high-end users are not completely unresponsive to prices. Reporters learned from interviews that due to the continuous rise in material prices, Apple predicts that future sales of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max may fall short of expectations, and has notified the supply chain to slightly lower the production schedule of these two models for the first quarter of 2027 by about 5%. According to the interviewees, the adjustment is not large, but it reflects the trend of slowing demand, and the price hike of new models exceeds the affordability of some consumers.
In addition, price hikes do not necessarily push consumers to choose foldable phones. Some analysts pointed out that after the price of bar-type models rises, the relative price gap between them and foldable phones will narrow slightly, which may provide some help to the foldable phone segment, but foldable smartphones are also facing many cost pressures. Wang Xiaoya, Research Director of the Mobile Division at CINNO Research, also told the Economic Observer that the durability of key components for foldable phones still needs to be improved, and there is a trade-off between lightness and thinness and imaging performance.
Of course, Apple itself is also waiting for market feedback. A supply chain insider told reporters that the preliminary forecast for iPhone Duo in the first quarter of next year currently only has a total volume, and has not been broken down into individual configuration versions. Apple will finalize the specific production and configuration plans after getting the market feedback from the first month after launch.
In short, for iPhone Duo, demand this year is underpinned by Apple's high-end user base, but how large the volume can grow next year depends on the affordability of this group of users in the price hike cycle.
Where the Incremental Volume Flows
The incremental volume brought by ramp-up will not be evenly distributed across every segment. Reporters learned from interviews that the component value of foldable smartphones is mainly concentrated in panels and hinges, and the incremental value captured by domestic enterprises is more focused on cover glass, hinges and structural parts, as well as upstream material segments.
The high value of panels and hinges mainly stems from their high manufacturing difficulty. Foldable panels replace glass substrates with flexible materials, and need to maintain display performance during repeated opening and closing, making yield rate and durability more difficult to guarantee. The hinge is a set of mechanical structure that needs to open and close repeatedly in a very small space, which also faces yield rate and durability issues. In addition, as Apple pursues a thinner and lighter design, lightweight structural materials will also push up costs. The incremental value in the panel segment is mainly captured by South Korean enterprises. Reporters learned during interviews that the foldable panel of iPhone Duo is exclusively supplied by Samsung Display, a South Korean panel enterprise.
A foldable cover layer needs to be placed on top of the panel. Ordinary mobile phone glass cannot be folded, so foldable phones need to use UTG (Ultra-Thin Flexible Glass), which is thin enough to bend with the screen during repeated opening and closing. In addition, CPI (Colorless Polyimide) is a foldable transparent film that can be used as a standalone cover, or used in combination with UTG.
Cover glass is a segment that domestic enterprises have already entered. Lens Technology (300433.SZ), a consumer electronic glass cover manufacturer, introduced at an investor exchange event on August 23 that the company supplies UTG glass, CPI films and other products for its major client's foldable device project this year. Relevant products started shipment at the end of the second quarter of 2026, and were in the stage of mass delivery in late August. Looking forward to next year, Lens Technology expects that the major client's foldable phones will achieve full ramp-up.
The hinge is another segment with concentrated incremental value, and it is also one of the most complex components in foldable smartphones. The hinge of a foldable phone generally consists of parts such as rotating shafts, gears, connecting rods, support plates and outer hinge covers, which are assembled together to form a hinge module. The hinge module of iPhone Duo is composed of more than 100 components, responsible for controlling opening and closing and supporting the middle part of the screen.
Domestic structural part enterprises have also captured incremental value from the hinge segment. For example, Lingyi iTech (002600.SZ), a consumer electronic component enterprise, stated in response to investor questions on September 4 that the hinge structural parts, screen support plates and other components supplied by the company for the customer's new generation of terminal products have a per-unit value several times higher than that of bar-type phones. The screen support plate is attached to the back of the flexible screen, used to support the screen and keep the folding area flat.
New processes are also changing the distribution of value across industrial chain segments. An interviewed industry insider told reporters that 3D printing is mainly used for hinge parts and middle frames in mobile phones, and the hinge cover of iPhone Duo is made of 3D-printed recycled titanium. In traditional processes, bar stock suppliers provide cuboid metal bars, and middle frame manufacturers use CNC (Computer Numerical Control) machine tools to cut and shape them. After adopting 3D printing, the blanks are mainly printed by upstream material manufacturers, and only a small amount of CNC finishing is needed afterwards. The aforementioned industry insider also mentioned that the procurement price of middle frames made by the two processes of 3D printing and CNC is close for the complete machine assembly plant, but the value of the upstream material segment varies greatly, and currently both middle frame manufacturers and bar stock suppliers are purchasing 3D printing equipment.
The unit price of hinges usually goes down first with the "annual price reduction" mechanism, and then rises with product iteration. After components enter mass production, procurement prices are usually reduced in batches, which is called "annual price reduction" in the manufacturing industry, and suppliers generally rely on yield improvement and scale effect to absorb corresponding pressure. The aforementioned marketing executive introduced that the procurement price of the first-generation hinge module of iPhone Duo will decrease quarter by quarter, and may drop to around 80 US dollars by September 2027. It is expected that Apple will launch the next-generation product of iPhone Duo in 2027, and the processing technology and material of the hinge will be upgraded at that time, with the initial price expected to be around 103 US dollars.
In addition, new materials used in foldable phone hinges also bring potential opportunities for relevant domestic material enterprises. For example, Yaan Technology (300328.SZ), a manufacturer of liquid metal and magnesium-aluminum alloy components, stated during an institutional survey on August 27 that the zirconium-based liquid metal hinge spindle is one of its core products, and the gross profit margin of liquid metal products is significantly higher than that of traditional magnesium-aluminum alloy products, but the company did not disclose the corresponding terminal brand of relevant products. Liquid metal, also known as amorphous alloy, has no crystal structure in the internal atomic arrangement like ordinary metals, featuring high strength and strong elastic deformation capacity, making it suitable for precision small parts that need to bear repeated force such as rotating shafts.
In the view of many interviewees, after Apple enters the foldable phone market, the foldable phone supply chain will mature faster. Some interviewees also mentioned that Apple's scale and strict quality standards will prompt suppliers to increase investment in engineering technology, production capacity construction and yield improvement, which will help improve the performance and cost structure of the entire industry in the long run.
As for whether foldable smartphones will become popular from now on, Wang Xiaoya believes that Apple's entry will accelerate the process of foldable phones becoming mainstream high-end models, but restricted by cost structure and technical complexity, foldable products will still maintain the positioning of high-end flagship models, and high material costs will constrain their price reduction.
This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Economic Observer", author: Zheng Chenye, authorized for release by 36Kr.