A stampede has begun in the humanoid robot sector: existing shares are sold at a 50% discount.

A few days ago, I still thought the humanoid robot bubble was far too big; but just a few days later, I feel that stampede has already started in this track.

One key signal is that the old shares of some star companies have begun to be sold at a 50% discount.

I will not mention the specific names. At least two sources indicate that a domestic unicorn working on world models is in a hurry to sell its old shares. Founded only a few years ago, it raised tens of billions of yuan in financing in the first half of this year, with a valuation of hundreds of billions of yuan, and now it starts to sell old shares at a 50-60% discount.

This is a systematic revaluation, which shows that investors have begun to believe that humanoid robot companies are not that valuable.

Let's look at the phenomena first.

On October 16, Rongzhong Finance reported that an investor invested in an embodied intelligence startup at a post-investment valuation of 3 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. By October, the company's external valuation had risen to 22 billion yuan.

However, the investor wanted to transfer the old shares at a valuation of 12 billion yuan, with a discount of about 45%, but still failed to find a buyer.

Note that this is an asking price, not an actual transaction. The 22 billion yuan is also not a price verified by the public market.

As far as I know, this transaction is still ongoing. What does this mean? 22 billion yuan is the peak valuation, but 12 billion yuan is not the bottom valuation. It is just like a stock that has not hit its lowest point yet.

This shows that capital has begun to stampede and panic. Why? Think about it, there are only a few scenarios in which institutions usually sell old shares.

1. The fund is due, which is a conventional practice.

Among the invested projects, the listed ones exit through IPO; for the unlisted ones, either the enterprise buys back the old shares, or the shares are transferred to external capital parties.

2. There are good short-term exit opportunities, and plenty of buyers are willing to take over the shares.

This is a smart move. Before the bubble bursts, you run away first.

GSR Ventures did exactly this kind of thing.

According to the statement released by Xinghaitu on March 29, 2025: November 2023: GSR Ventures participated in the angel round financing of Xinghaitu. May 2024: GSR submitted a request to Xinghaitu to exit its equity investment.

September 2024: Xinghaitu assisted GSR in completing the exit.

3. They are not optimistic about the project in either the short or long term, and just want to exit as soon as possible.

This fully exposes their urgent demand. As the investor of the project, if you are so eager to exit, how could the potential buyers not notice your intention and dare to take over the old shares you don't want?

Therefore, the current stampede in the humanoid robot track is understandable; it is even more understandable that the old shares cannot be sold off in a short time.

The unwritten rule of venture capital has always been: once you step in with one leg, it will be difficult to get out.

When the wolf does not come, you think wolf meat is delicious; when the wolf comes, you know you need to run. There is no such a perfect thing in the world.

Now there are several signals that I believe the whole industry has noticed.

1. The original exit logic may no longer work.

On September 21, according to foreign media reports, the listing plans of some Chinese humanoid robot enterprises are slowing down.

People familiar with the matter said that regulatory authorities have begun to pay more attention to the valuation and revenue quality of enterprises, and the private market valuation of some projects has been reduced by 30% to 50%.

2. The secondary market has already issued a warning once.

Take Unitree Robotics as an example.

On the first day of its listing, Unitree's stock price once rose more than five times, and then fell by about 55% from the high point.

Of course, temporary stock price fluctuations cannot be directly equated with the decline of primary market valuation.

But this case at least reminds us: even if a company is successfully listed, the market will not always pay for its future imagination.

My view: Everyone should not rush to stampede, and don't act on every rumor you hear.

Don't rush to invest in robots crazily right after the 2025 Spring Festival Gala; don't rush to invest crazily in whatever Elon Musk does.

Also don't collectively belittle the industry as soon as Unitree's stock price slips; let alone sell old shares crazily whenever there is a change in IPO policies.

What's the difference between this and children playing house? Children have no their own opinions, they just follow what adults say, and take whatever adults say is good as good.

China's venture capital circle has a development history of more than 20 years. We have witnessed the Internet bubble, the mobile Internet wave, and the ups and downs of new energy, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

Logically, we should be more mature and more capable of independent judgment than we were 20 years ago.

But why, even today, when facing an emerging industry, are we still prone to fall into the same cycle?

When the trend comes, everyone rushes forward; when the valuation rises, everyone thinks they have made the right judgment; once negative signals appear, they almost want everyone to turn around and leave at the same time.

If an institution's investment judgment mainly depends on the Spring Festival Gala, Elon Musk, IPO policies and the actions of other institutions, is it really doing investment, or just chasing emotions? What's the difference between this and retail investors chasing the rise and selling on the dip?

Does that mean that the threshold for equity investment is too low now, and we should screen out those who are not professionally qualified?

There will always be emerging trends, and what is truly scarce is the judgment that is not coerced by the trend.

Therefore, I do not want to see the humanoid robot track go from crazy pursuit to collective bearishness.

A mature venture capital industry does not mean that everyone is always bullish, but that being bullish is based on evidence, being bearish is supported by proof, buying follows logic, and exit abides by disciplines.

After more than 20 years of development, if we can only be collectively fanatical when the trend comes and collectively panic when the wind direction changes, then what needs to be reflected on is not just this round of bubble in the humanoid robot sector.

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account Pencil News (ID: pencilnews), written by Pencil News, and published with authorization from 36Kr.