Deep V-shaped reversal, industry giants issue collective public statements

On October 23, the ChiNext Index of A-share market staged a drastic reversal.

In the morning session, the ChiNext Index once fell by nearly 3%, but as capital flooded frantically into the market in the afternoon, the index surged rapidly and turned positive, with the current increase approaching 2% and the intraday amplitude close to 5 percentage points.

At noon, five optical communication industry chain companies, namely Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC, Accelink, and Source Photonics, intensively issued announcements related to production and operation, positively responding to market concerns from multiple dimensions such as on-hand orders, share repurchases, performance forecasts, and capacity expansion.

Right after the afternoon market opened, the stock prices of these companies rebounded rapidly from a drop of over 7%, and even turned positive. Currently, Innolight's increase stands at 2.5%, with a trading volume of about 23 billion yuan.

After the afternoon market opened, capital flooded in sharply immediately. Innolight, Eoptolink and TFC rose rapidly and turned positive, driving the sentiment reversal of the optical module - CPO - computing power hardware chain, which became the biggest driving force for the deep V reversal of the ChiNext Index this time.

Innolight explicitly stated that all production and operations are normal, the supply chain is stable, the capacity utilization rate is sufficient, customer order demand is strong, on-hand orders are full, and the product price system is healthy; orders from major overseas customers have been placed up to 2027, and some key customers have given clear demand guidance for 2028, and the demand for high-end optical modules such as 1.6T and 800G is expected to maintain rapid growth.

Eoptolink not only stated that its on-hand orders are sufficient, and 800G and 1.6T products are the main delivery force this year, but also disclosed that the board of directors has passed the repurchase resolution, planning to repurchase no less than 800 million yuan and no more than 1 billion yuan, with the upper limit of repurchase price at 500 yuan per share, and the repurchased shares are intended to be used for equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan.

TFC said that the order of production and operation is normal, the main business is carried out normally, on-hand orders are sufficient, and no major abnormal changes have taken place in the internal and external operating environment.

Accelink stated that the overall development trend of the industry is consistent with the judgment disclosed in the previous periodic reports, there is no major adverse change, the production and delivery order is normal, the market demand for main products such as high-speed optical interconnection and optical transmission is strong, and the on-hand order reserve is sufficient.

Source Photonics disclosed that production and operation, order delivery and capacity expansion are all carried out normally, and released the third quarter performance forecast: the estimated operating revenue is 650 million yuan to 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 264.56% to 292.60%; the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is 403 million yuan to 453 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 578.85% to 659.70%; a number of products for new packaging technologies such as CPO/NPO are being steadily promoted in combination with customer demands, the first batch of production equipment for the second-phase project is expected to enter the plant soon, and production capacity will be formed from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027.

The simultaneous release of the five announcements forms a positive response to the core pessimistic narrative in the morning from five perspectives: order visibility, price system, repurchase support, high performance growth, and capacity expansion.

In fact, some positive news was released in the morning session. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the *Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of Commerce Development Through Science and Technology*, explicitly mentioning improving the application level of cutting-edge technologies such as embodied intelligence, robots, and brain-computer interface; the data that the sales of embodied intelligent robots on key platforms in the first three quarters increased by 22.6% year-on-year also fermented during the trading session.

The robotics sector faces relatively small performance pressure from the third-quarter reports, and is in line with the main policy line. Existing capital took the opportunity to launch sentiment repair, Unitree Robotics once surged by more than 19%, and 12 stocks in the humanoid robot sector hit the daily limit.

However, it should be noted that the capital driving the afternoon rally mainly comes from the repositioning of existing on-market chips and short covering, rather than large-scale entry of incremental capital.

This centralized announcement by CPO leading enterprises is a centralized risk clarification of listed companies in response to the secondary market fluctuations, whose core role is to repair sentiment, rather than a sudden announcement of new large-value orders. The announcements confirmed the fact that the industry prosperity continues and order visibility is extended, but next-generation technologies such as NPO, XPO and CPO are still in the customer verification stage, and there is still uncertainty about the pace of large-scale volume growth.

More importantly, the current domestic AI narrative still faces multiple variables such as the capital expenditure rhythm of overseas customers, product price fluctuations, and the progress of domestic computing power bidding. At the same time, it also depends on whether the US stock technology sector can stabilize, and whether there are changes in the US industry policies and attitudes towards China's related industries.

But what is certain is that the AI hardware sector has gradually fallen to a fairly cost-effective level, and oversold conditions have begun to appear. For the upcoming market, it is not yet fully certain whether a deep V pattern will be formed. Investors need to wait patiently for more confirmation signals and prudently manage market fluctuation risks.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Gelonghui APP" (ID: hkguruclub), author: Godzilla, published by 36Kr with authorization.