The floor price of land in Shenzhen has repeatedly surpassed 100,000 yuan per square meter, with some second-hand housing owners raising their prices by 1.5 million yuan.
In Shenzhen's second-hand housing market, price increases and decreases are taking place at the same time.
In the same residential complex, some owners raised their listing prices by 1.5 million yuan as the "Golden September" arrived; other owners, after two years of listing, cut their price tags from 23 million yuan to 20 million yuan. The divergence on the buyer side is equally obvious: some people are still waiting and worrying that the price will drop further after purchase, while others are willing to pay an extra 1 million yuan to buy a special house type.
A notable backdrop is that since the start of this year, Shenzhen has consecutively sold high-priced residential land parcels. The floor price of some plots has exceeded 90,000 yuan per square meter, with the highest one surpassing 100,000 yuan per square meter.
High land prices have raised the market's expectations for future new home selling prices, and also given some second-hand housing owners more expectations for the future market.
Meanwhile, the supply of new homes in Shenzhen has continued to shrink. In the first 9 months of this year, the new supply of commercial residential properties in Shenzhen was about 20,400 units, and the total annual supply is expected to decrease by about 10,000 units compared with last year. With the implementation of policies related to completed property sales, the capital arrangement and development pace of real estate enterprises will also face adjustments.
As land costs keep rising and the supply of new homes may further decrease, can developers convert high-priced land into high selling prices? Who will foot the bill?
Buyers pay an extra 1 million yuan to purchase, the proportion of price hikes rises to 15%
According to the observation of Xiao Xiaoping, Dean of Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, the latest transaction prices of some relatively new residential projects in Qianhai have risen by about 10% compared with the beginning of the year. In her view, this is related to the consecutive emergence of high-priced land parcels in Qianhai and Baozhong, as well as the demand expectation brought by Tencent's relocation.
In June this year, C&D Real Estate won a residential land parcel in Guiwan, Qianhai with 3.525 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 114.29% and a transaction floor price of about 95,900 yuan per square meter. According to the calculation of Haodi.com, compared with the adjacent plot Haiyanfu won by China Merchants Shekou in July 2025, the actual floor price of C&D's plot is 9,906 yuan per square meter higher, with an increase of about 11%.
The impact of high-priced land on the second-hand housing market is first reflected in the viewing response of buyers.
"After C&D acquired the land, our store has two or three groups of customers consulting or viewing houses on average every week," said Yu Lang, business district manager of Qianhai Flagship Store of Lianjia Shenzhen. Some customers will take the initiative to mention the high-priced land won by C&D when viewing properties.
Yu Lang believes that the expected selling price of the newly transferred land parcels in the future provides a new price reference for the surrounding second-hand houses. "With such a high land acquisition cost of C&D, everyone will think that the project may be sold at a relatively high price in the future, and the price expectation will go up."
This expectation has already been reflected in the listing prices of some properties.
Yu Lang said that compared with the beginning of the year, the prices of some units in the relatively new residential projects Runfengfu and Tianjing in the Qianhai area have increased by about 7%-13%, and units with rare house types and good views are more popular.
For example, a certain house type in Runfengfu has an extra window in the living room, and the middle and high floors can even see the sea view. Due to the limited number of such house types, the price is usually higher than other units in the community. In March this year, Yu Lang's store once sold a unit of this type for 11.6 million yuan. "Now some customers ask us to find the same house type, and they can accept an extra 1 million yuan."
In addition to expectations, house types and views, transaction costs will also affect buyers' choices. Taking Runfengfu as an example, some units with property ownership certificates processed earlier have met the condition of being traded for more than two years, so they are exempt from value-added tax, and a single unit may save more than 300,000 yuan in taxes and fees.
The change in price expectations also affects the willingness of some owners to sell. "Some owners we maintained originally agreed to bear the value-added tax, but (after the land auction) they changed their minds and asked buyers to bear the cost. Similar situations have occurred in several communities in Qianhai, and some transactions have reached a deadlock as a result," Yu Lang said.
However, price reduction is still the more mainstream choice among buyers.
A three-bedroom unit in Runfengfu with a construction area of about 110 square meters was listed at 12.8 million yuan in September last year, and the price was reduced to 12.5 million yuan on October 18 this year; another four-bedroom unit with a construction area of about 151 square meters was listed at 23 million yuan in October 2024, and the price has been adjusted twice in the past six months, with the current listing price of 20 million yuan. A three-bedroom unit in Tianjing with a construction area of about 122 square meters was listed at 15 million yuan in November 2025, and the latest listing price on October 11 this year was reduced to 12.88 million yuan.
At the end of May this year, Shell launched a price adjustment system, with more than 62,000 price adjustments accumulated in 4 months. Among them, the proportion of price increases in September was about 15%, higher than 12% in July and August, but price reduction is still the mainstream behavior.
4 high-priced land parcels transacted, customers' premium tolerance has dropped significantly
Some second-hand owners have reaped the dividends of the hot land auction, but the developers who won the land are not in an optimistic situation. The problem they face is: how to sell the land acquired at a high price at a sufficiently high price?
In June this year, the floor price records of residential-related land parcels in Nanshan, Qianhai and Bao'an were continuously refreshed. The Yuehai plot in Nanshan District won by Poly Real Estate has an actual floor price of 114,478 yuan per square meter, refreshing the unit price record of Shenzhen's land auction; the actual floor prices of C&D's Qianhai plot and Poly Development's Baozhong plot both exceeded 96,000 yuan per square meter. On September 10, China Overseas Real Estate won the Antuo Mountain plot in Futian with 2.55 billion yuan, with an actual floor price of 100,808 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 125%.
Under normal circumstances, the rise in land prices will directly raise the sales threshold of projects.
According to the calculation of Haodi.com, if the construction and installation cost of the Yuehai plot is calculated at 15,000 yuan per square meter (including decoration), the selling price of the project after launch needs to reach more than 160,000 yuan per square meter to break even.
C&D's Qianhai plot also faces the price test. An industry insider believes that according to the current surrounding price level, the project may need to be sold at about 170,000 yuan per square meter in the future to have the opportunity to achieve the expected return.
Judging from the market feedback, Shenzhen buyers still have certain demand for high-end residential properties.
Take Qianhai's new project China Merchants Haiyanfu as an example, the project has a building height limit of 80 meters, a plot ratio of 3.1, and the unit size ranges from 139 to 194 square meters. It is reported that the average record price of Haiyanfu is about 142,000 yuan per square meter, with a sales ratio of over 90%.
The Guanchao Fu project in Baozhong, the adjacent area, has been opened for sale 4 times since April this year, with a total of 408 units launched. The record average price ranges from 146,800 yuan to 166,300 yuan per square meter, and the sales ratios are 96%, 90%, 83% and 73% respectively.
Zhang Yun (pseudonym), a marketing staff member of a branded real estate enterprise with properties on sale in Shenzhen's core area, introduced that currently the customers received by the project are mainly self-occupancy improvement groups, including executives and business owners in the finance and professional service industries, as well as families working in Hong Kong who need to commute between the two places. "People's house buying ideas have changed, and they no longer want to make profits from short-term real estate speculation."
According to Zhang Yun's observation, compared with the previous two years, customers are now much more sensitive to cost performance and the usable floor area ratio, and are willing to pay for highly practical house types and mature supporting facilities, but their premium tolerance has dropped significantly and they are more pragmatic. "In the past, many customers preferred large flats of more than 170 square meters, but now four-bedroom units of 105-123 square meters are the most popular. People give priority to meeting the practical needs of their families and do not want to pay for extra unused space."
New home supply may decrease by 10,000 units, completed property sales change the development pace
The other side of the frequent emergence of high-priced land is that the supply of new homes in Shenzhen is shrinking.
Data from Shenzhen Shell Research Institute shows that the supply of new commercial residential properties in Shenzhen reached its peak in 2023, close to 72,800 units; the total supply in 2025 was about 36,600 units. From January to September this year, the new supply was about 20,400 units.
Source: Shenzhen Shell Research Institute
According to the disclosure of Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on October 8, 5,880 new commercial residential units will be supplied in the fourth quarter of this year. Based on this estimate, even if all these projects are launched as scheduled, the supply of first-hand residential properties in Shenzhen this year may be fixed at 26,000 units, a decrease of about 10,000 units compared with last year.
The trend of supply contraction may continue in the next few years.
Xiao Xiaoping pointed out that up to now, the area of residential-related land transacted in Shenzhen this year is about 290,000 square meters, slightly higher than the whole of last year, but the land development conditions have changed. Under the planning requirements such as the 80-meter height limit and the reduction of plot ratio, the residential construction area and number of units that can be provided by the same area of land may decrease. This means that even if the land supply increases, the number of units finally converted into new homes may not necessarily grow synchronously. She predicts that the supply of new homes in Shenzhen may further shrink in the next two to three years.
Meanwhile, the commercial residential property sales system in Shenzhen has also ushered in adjustments.
On October 15, three departments including Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau jointly issued the implementation opinions, clarifying that real estate development management will be improved from six aspects, including improving pre-sale management, orderly promoting completed property sales, implementing the host bank system, increasing financing support, and optimizing land supply management. With the implementation of Shenzhen's local detailed rules, the four first-tier cities have all issued relevant policies.
For real estate enterprises, the changes brought by completed property sales are not only the delay of sales time, but also involve capital occupation and land acquisition decisions.
Gemdale told Time Finance that completed property sales mean that the capital precipitation cycle becomes longer, and the land acquisition calculation logic of real estate enterprises will also be readjusted. They will be more cautious in land acquisition and more concentrated in core sectors.
For home buyers, completed property sales mean that they can more intuitively judge the housing quality and community environment after the house is completed, reducing the uncertainty of project delivery. Gemdale said that the existing sales system eliminates the ability to tell stories with pre-sale properties, and projects that already have delivery certainty are more likely to gain customer recognition. The company's Longhua Qiyao project saw a 204% month-on-month increase in visitor volume and a 320% month-on-month increase in transaction volume during the National Day holiday.
However, the reduction in supply and the improvement of delivery certainty do not mean that developers can easily raise selling prices.
Zhang Yun believes that in the next one or two years, Shenzhen's high-end residential properties will usher in centralized supply. On the whole, it is a structural mismatch: the total volume is not in short supply, but there are not many high-quality properties with good locations and product advantages. The market will continue to diverge: projects in core mature areas with generational advantages in products have strong demand support; high-end properties with average locations and serious product homogeneity will face greater competitive pressure.
"High-priced land more reflects the scarcity of core plots, but high land price does not mean that customers are willing to accept high selling prices. Now customers have their own independent price judgment, and will not blindly raise expectations along with land prices," Zhang Yun said.
This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Time Finance APP" (ID: tf-app), author: Liang Zhenyu, released with authorization from 36Kr.