Thermal coal at 1025 yuan per ton: Who is under greater pressure, coal enterprises or factories?

When one ton of thermal coal is resold at over 1,000 yuan, who is the first to feel this round of price hikes?

The answer may be different from what many people expect.

On October 19, Securities Daily cited data from China Coal Market Network (CCTD) saying that on October 12, the spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region reached 1,004 yuan per ton, and further rose to 1,025 yuan per ton by October 16, up 47.27% from the beginning of the year.

The coal price returning to the 1,000-yuan mark is certainly good news for coal mines. However, for thermal power plants, manufacturing enterprises and even ordinary households, the cost cannot be simply calculated according to the logic of "coal price rises by 47%, so electricity price also rises by 47%".

What really matters are four completely different prices:

Spot coal price, long-term agreement coal price, generation-side electricity price, and the final electricity price paid by enterprises.

Only by breaking down these four layers can we clearly see who is bearing the cost of this round of coal price hikes.

Coal mines get a "price hike card" first

Let's start with coal enterprises.

The most direct change for coal enterprises is the rise in the selling price of part of the market-oriented coal.

Since the beginning of this year, the spot price of thermal coal has risen significantly. According to the statistical caliber of CCTD, the spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased by 47.27% compared with the start of the year.

If a coal enterprise sells a large proportion of its output at market prices, and the mining cost does not rise sharply at the same time, the increase in the selling price per ton of coal usually means an improved gross profit margin.

This is why in the upward cycle of coal prices, upstream coal mines are often the first batch of beneficiaries.

However, the figure of "1,025 yuan" cannot be interpreted as that all coal produced by coal enterprises can be sold at this price.

In China's coal market, a large amount of thermal coal is not traded at the port spot price every day, but supplied through medium and long-term contracts.

At the work promotion meeting on ensuring the supply of thermal coal held by the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission on October 14, it was clearly required to "strictly implement the agreed price of thermal coal under long-term agreements" and strengthen the physical performance of long-term contracts.

In other words, for many large coal enterprises, the income improvement is real, but the magnitude will not be simply equal to the 47% rise in spot coal prices.

The spot price is more like a "thermometer" of the market, rather than a unified settlement price for all coal transactions.

Thermal power plants are the most sensitive to the change

When coal prices rise, the pressure is first transmitted to coal-fired power plants along the industrial chain.

Coal is one of the most important variable costs for coal-fired power generation.

Simply put, if the coal consumption per kWh of electricity generated by a thermal power plant is basically stable, the higher the coal purchase price, the higher the power generation cost will be.

The problem is that the electricity sold by power plants cannot be raised arbitrarily as they wish.

In the past, when coal prices rose sharply, a situation often occurred in the market: coal enterprises made profits, while thermal power enterprises suffered losses.

The reason is that the adjustment speed of coal prices and electricity prices is not completely synchronized.

However, the situation in 2026 is far more complex than in the past.

In January this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration further improved the capacity electricity price mechanism on the power generation side, allowing all regions to raise the coal power capacity price standard in light of local realities; at the same time, the medium and long-term contract prices in power trading are allowed to better reflect changes in market supply and demand and power generation costs.

This is equivalent to adding several layers of buffers for coal power enterprises.

The first layer is the long-term agreement for thermal coal.

If a considerable part of the fuel for a power plant has been locked through annual or medium and long-term contracts, it does not need to purchase all coal at the port spot price of 1,025 yuan per ton.

The second layer is medium and long-term power trading.

At present, medium and long-term power contracts can be signed with fixed prices, or a flexible pricing mechanism that changes with market supply and demand and power generation costs can be established.

The third layer is the capacity electricity price.

The value of coal power is no longer limited to "getting paid for every kWh of electricity generated". The stability and peak-shaving capacity it provides for the power system can also be partially compensated through the capacity mechanism.

Therefore, the rise in coal prices will still compress the profits of some thermal power enterprises, but it no longer completely relies on the single "coal price - on-grid electricity price" relationship as in the past.

Factories are the second bill worthy of attention

For manufacturing enterprises, the most important question is not "how much does coal cost", but:

Where do they buy their electricity, and how are the contracts signed.

Assuming that a factory uses tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of kWh of electricity every year, electricity bills are often an important operating cost.

If an enterprise participates in market-oriented power trading, its electricity purchase price may be affected by market supply and demand, power generation costs and the terms of medium and long-term contracts.

Relevant rules of the National Development and Reform Commission have made it clear that the electricity price under medium and long-term contracts can be fixed, or a flexible price mechanism that changes with market supply and demand and power generation costs can be adopted.

This means that after the continuous rise of coal prices, the cost will not be transmitted to factories on the same day, but will gradually be reflected in the next round of monthly transactions, annual long-term agreements or market electricity prices.

For ordinary manufacturing industries, this is usually only one variable in the cost structure.

But for high energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, chemical industry and building materials, the situation is completely different.

These industries have higher power consumption per unit of output value, and every small change in electricity price may amplify the impact on profits.

Therefore, facing the thermal coal price of 1,025 yuan per ton:

An asset-light enterprise may hardly feel any impact;

An ordinary manufacturing enterprise may only see a slight change in its electricity bill;

A factory with a high proportion of energy cost in total cost may directly feel the pressure on its gross profit margin.

This is what enterprise operators really need to pay attention to amid the coal price hike.

Will residential electricity prices rise accordingly?

This is the point that ordinary consumers are most likely to misunderstand.

The answer is: We cannot deduce that residential electricity prices will also rise by 47.27% just because the spot price of thermal coal has increased by 47.27%.

First of all, 1,025 yuan per ton is only the spot indicator of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region at a specific time, not the average coal purchase price across the country.

Secondly, a considerable part of the coal purchased by power plants is obtained through medium and long-term contracts.

Third, from coal mines to residential electricity bills, there are still power generation, power market trading, power transmission and distribution, and government pricing mechanisms in between.

The market-oriented reform of coal and electricity prices promoted by the state in recent years does not mean that every fluctuation in coal prices is completely transmitted to residents.

In fact, one of the more important goals of the coal and electricity price reform is to redistribute price fluctuations among coal enterprises, power plants and industrial and commercial users through long-term agreements, power markets and capacity mechanisms.

Therefore, for residents, seeing "thermal coal price breaking through 1,000 yuan" does not mean that "household electricity bills are about to rise" immediately.

What really needs to be observed is the duration of the price hike.

If the spot price hike is only driven by winter stockpiling and replenishment for a period of time, the impact may mainly stay in the coal market.

If coal prices remain at a high level for a long time and gradually affect the next round of thermal coal long-term agreements and power market transaction prices, the cost may be further transmitted to downstream sectors.

Behind the 1,025 yuan price, there are actually three rounds of benefit redistribution

From the perspective of the industrial chain, this round of coal price hike means at least three things.

First, the bargaining power of coal enterprises is increasing.

In particular, enterprises with high-quality coal mines, a high proportion of market-oriented coal sales and strong cost control capabilities are more sensitive to coal price hikes.

Second, thermal power enterprises are once again facing the test of fuel costs.

However, compared with the last round of sharp coal price hikes, today's thermal power sector has multiple buffers such as long-term agreements, market-oriented electricity prices and capacity electricity prices.

Third, the cost gap in the high energy-consuming manufacturing industry may further widen.

Enterprises with high energy efficiency, strong ability to lock in prices through long-term power contracts, self-owned power sources or new energy procurement capabilities have stronger resistance to price fluctuations.

Conversely, enterprises with high energy costs and procurement that highly rely on market prices will face more obvious pressure.

Therefore, what really matters about the 1,025 yuan per ton price is not the number itself.

What matters is that after coal prices return to the 1,000-yuan era, China's energy industrial chain is no longer a simple chain of:

Coal price hike → electricity price hike → product price hike in factories.

Instead, it has become:

Spot coal price → long-term agreement coal price → power market trading → capacity compensation → enterprise power consumption cost.

Every layer has contracts, price mechanisms, and different bearers.

This is also the mindset that enterprise operators should establish when looking at energy prices:

Do not only focus on the most eye-catching spot quotation, but figure out which link of the price transmission chain you are in.

The extra cost from the price hike of one ton of coal will not be fully borne by a single person in the end.

Coal enterprises, power plants and manufacturing enterprises are redistributing this cost through contracts and market mechanisms.

This article is from the WeChat official account "BT Finance" (ID: btcjv1), written by BT Finance, and authorized for release by 36Kr.