The home appliance market during the National Day holiday has registered a notable recovery across its three major segments.

After a long dry spell, the home appliance market has started to pick up during the National Day holiday.

Big data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that from October 1 to 6, a total of 2.848 million home appliance trade-in transactions were completed, driving sales of 12.34 billion yuan; 3.052 million new digital and smart products were purchased, driving sales of 8.68 billion yuan. Among them, sales of Class 1 energy efficiency dishwashers increased by 8.4% year on year.

Data from Suning.com shows that from October 1 to 7, foot traffic at core national stores increased by 50% year on year, and sales of AI smart home appliances rose by more than 40% year on year, becoming the main driving force for product replacement and upgrading. In county-level markets, the new three categories of water purifiers, washer-dryer sets and dishwashers have all been included in residents' purchase lists.

In addition, data from JD MALL also shows that smart home appliances and green home appliances have become the first choice for consumers to "upgrade their home setups". In the first round of consumption data during the holiday, the sales proportion of smart home appliances rose to 60%.

Although the data is positive, it does not mean that the home appliance industry has fully recovered. On the whole, it is more like a structural market trend. By category, AI smart home appliances, Class 1 energy/water efficiency models and embedded kitchen appliances have delivered outstanding performance, which are exactly the directions that the home appliance trade-in policy focuses on encouraging and prioritizes for subsidies.

Three Major Segments See Obvious Recovery

The biggest support for the home appliance market recovery during this National Day period is the "trade-in for new" policy.

Although in 2026, the categories eligible for home appliance trade-in subsidies only include 6 types of products meeting Class 1 energy efficiency or water efficiency standards: refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, air conditioners, water heaters and computers, many regions including Sichuan, Yunnan, Henan, Jiangsu and Guangdong have added smart range hoods, smart stoves, smart dishwashers, water purifiers, smart cleaning robots and other products to their independent subsidy categories.

At the same time, the fourth batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national trade-in subsidy funds for 2026 has been gradually allocated from October 1. Combined with local subsidies, the release of replacement demand remains stable.

Overall, the overall market is still under pressure, but the three major segments have seen obvious recovery.

First, the penetration rate of AI smart home appliances is rising rapidly. According to the data released by Suning.com, sales of AI smart home appliances during the National Day holiday increased by more than 40% year on year, and the sales proportion of AI products exceeded 70% for the first time. Data from JD MALL also shows that smart home appliances have become the first choice for product replacement. The industry is generally optimistic about the future growth of AI home appliances.

Second, high-end smart suites are selling well. A notable feature of home appliance consumption this National Day is the shift from "driven by low-price promotions" to "led by replacement and upgrading". Consumers are willing to pay a premium for suite products that are more energy-saving, smarter and better adapted to home decoration styles. Haier's National Day bundled order volume increased by 37% year on year, and the average customer order value increased by nearly 20% compared with the same period last year. Relevant persons from leading kitchen appliance enterprises also stated that the growth of high-end kitchen appliance suites is significant.

Third, elderly-friendly home appliances have ushered in new growth. During the long holiday, many young people returning to their hometowns replaced their parents' old home appliances with new ones. Data from platforms and stores shows that water purifiers, washer-dryer sets and dishwashers have gradually evolved from popular categories in urban areas to quality necessities for county households. The sales of floor scrubbers, combi-steam-bake ovens and embedded kitchen appliances suitable for large courtyard houses have even doubled year on year. Data from Suning.com shows that in county-level markets, the new three categories of water purifiers, washer-dryer sets and dishwashers have all been included in residents' purchase lists.

In terms of data, the growth is concentrated in high value-added categories, complete sets of solutions, Class 1 energy efficiency and AI smart products, which is a typical phased recovery under policy support.

"Off-season is Extremely Slow, Peak Season is Not Prosperous" Remains the New Normal

Trend Home Appliance Network believes that the rise of the home appliance market during the National Day holiday is more of a short-term pulse trend driven by policy subsidies, rather than a natural recovery driven by endogenous demand.

Then how to judge whether the market has really recovered?

If the indicator in the incremental market era is the transaction volume of new homes, then in the stock market era, the indicator is whether the demand for second-hand home renovation and old house renovation can be continuously released. If the demand for second-hand home renovation and old house renovation can be sustained, the home appliance industry will have a stable demand base; if the willingness for old house renovation is insufficient, the demand will drop rapidly after the subsidies are phased out.

Judging from the consumer confidence index, residents' willingness to consume is obviously cautious. From January to July 2026, the consumer confidence index has been hovering around 90, below the neutral line of 100 and also lower than the historical average of 108.37. The consumption trend has also shifted from "whether one can afford it" to "whether it is worth buying".

This directly amplifies the demand elasticity of old house renovation: once homeowners' confidence in consumption for home decoration and home renovation weakens, home appliance replacement plans will be suspended or postponed.

As Chen Yun, Deputy General Manager of Murata Co., Ltd., said, consumers generally lack sufficient expectations at present, so the current sales performance conforms to the new normal: the off-season is extremely slow, and the peak season is not prosperous.

On the other hand, in the short term, the National Day and Double 11 shopping festival are close in time, which leads to demand diversion between the two. If the home appliance demand during Double 11 can continue the momentum, the market trend in the fourth quarter will be sustainable; on the contrary, if the National Day holiday overdrafts most of the replacement demand in the fourth quarter, this round of growth will only be a short-term pulse, and the industry can hardly be said to have achieved real recovery.

In short, the National Day holiday only represents a phased policy pulse in the stock market, not a fundamental reversal of the industry. The sustainability of old house renovation and the demand carrying capacity of the Double 11 shopping festival will determine how far this round of recovery can go.

As the home appliance industry bids farewell to the real estate dividend, the real answer to the industry's recovery lies in the continuous quality upgrading demand of thousands of households.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Home New Paradigm", authorized for release by 36Kr.