Sales of communication equipment during the holiday period rose by 119.8%: Are mobile phones selling more in volume, or are they becoming more expensive?

During the National Day holiday, some people's shopping carts are filled with flight tickets and hotel bookings, while others are loaded with new smartphones, new smart bands and new refrigerators.

The value-added tax invoice data released by the State Taxation Administration shows that during the National Day holiday, the sales revenue of communication equipment such as mobile phones and smart bands increased by 119.8% year on year; that of household appliances and audio-visual equipment rose by 40.1%; and the retail sales of kitchenware and sanitary products grew by 52.3%.

The revenue of communication equipment has more than doubled, which at first glance seems to indicate that people have collectively decided to replace their mobile phones all at once.

However, "a 119.8% increase in sales revenue" cannot be directly translated as "a 119.8% increase in mobile phone sales volume". Does this extra revenue come from higher sales volume, higher unit prices, or consumers concentrating their previously delayed replacement purchases in the long holiday?

For ordinary households, what really matters is not how hot the industry is, but how much money they can actually save by replacing old products now.

119.8% is not a pure sales volume figure

First, let's clarify the statistical caliber.

The data released this time refers to the sales revenue reflected in value-added tax invoices, not the number of activated mobile phones, shipments or order volumes. Sales revenue can be roughly broken down as follows:

Sales revenue = sales volume × average transaction price.

If sales volume rises, revenue will go up; if consumers buy more expensive products, revenue will also rise; if devices other than mobile phones, such as smart bands, sell better, the overall revenue of communication equipment will also be driven up.

Assume that 100 mobile phones with an average price of 3000 yuan were sold last year, generating a sales revenue of 300,000 yuan. Even if only 150 units are sold this year, but the average transaction price rises to 4400 yuan, the sales revenue will reach 660,000 yuan, with a growth rate of 120%.

Therefore, 119.8% can prove that digital consumption during the holiday is booming, but it cannot independently prove that mobile phone sales volume has also more than doubled.

The only confirmed information in this set of data is that during the National Day holiday, the amount of money residents spent on products such as mobile phones and smart bands increased significantly, with a growth rate far higher than that of household appliances and kitchen and bathroom products.

Three forces pushing product replacements into one single holiday

Why did this boom happen precisely during this year's National Day holiday?

The State Taxation Administration gave three reasons: the subsidy funds for trade-in of some consumer goods were implemented before the holiday, new digital products were launched in a concentrated manner, and the rigid demand for household product replacements was released intensively during the long holiday.

Putting these three factors together, it is easy to understand this round of growth.

Subsidies solve the price problem. Consumers who previously thought new mobile phones were too expensive and planned to keep using their old ones for another six months find the threshold for replacing their phones lowered after seeing subsidies and platform discounts.

New products provide the reason for purchase. The feature of digital products is that consumers often wait for a new product release, a configuration upgrade or a price adjustment. The concentrated launch of new products is equivalent to pressing the start button on the hesitant demand.

The long holiday solves the time problem. Buying a mobile phone seems simple, but selecting models, comparing memory, migrating data, and disposing of old devices also take time. Replacing household appliances is even more complicated, involving delivery, old product removal, installation and after-sales services. The holiday just gives households a window to handle all these matters in a concentrated manner.

Therefore, this 119.8% is more like a phased peak generated by the superposition of three forces: policies lower the price, new products raise consumer interest, and the long holiday concentrates all purchase time together.

It shows that consumer demand has been activated, but it cannot be asserted that the same growth rate will be maintained throughout the year.

The money saved from subsidies may be "eaten up" by configuration upgrades

For consumers, there is another easily overlooked phenomenon: getting subsidies does not necessarily mean that the total household expenditure decreases.

For example, a consumer originally planned to buy a 3000-yuan mobile phone, and saved hundreds of yuan in total from subsidies and discounts. Facing a lower final price, he may no longer choose the original version, but raise his budget to a model with larger storage, higher configuration or higher grade.

As a result, subsidies reduce the price of a specific product, but may also push consumers to complete configuration upgrades.

This is not a bad thing. For many people, increasing storage to extend the service life of the device may be more cost-effective than simply buying a cheaper mobile phone. The problem is that households need to distinguish between "truly saving money" and "spending more just because the product is a little cheaper".

Similar characteristics have appeared in historical policy data. After the previous implementation of subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as mobile phones, both the weekly average sales volume and sales revenue of mobile phones priced below 6000 yuan increased, and the growth rate of sales revenue was higher than that of sales volume, indicating that product structure, transaction price and configuration selection will all affect the final sales amount. Therefore, when evaluating the effect of subsidies, we should not only ask "how much cheaper the product is", but also ask "how much more expensive the final purchase is".

Why are mobile phones, household appliances and kitchen & bathroom products all heating up at the same time?

Communication equipment grew by 119.8%, household appliances by 40.1%, and kitchen and bathroom retail by 52.3%. The simultaneous strong performance of these three types of commodities is no coincidence.

They share a common feature: high frequency of use, non-low unit price, and easy to delay purchase decisions.

If the mobile phone still works, people will make do with it for the time being; if the refrigerator makes more noise, people will not rush to replace it as long as it can still cool; shower heads, stoves and water heaters will not be replaced in a hurry as long as they do not affect basic use.

This type of consumption does not lack demand, but needs a trigger point.

After the superposition of subsidies, new products, holiday promotions and free time for households, purchase plans that were originally scattered in the next few months were all moved to the National Day holiday. As a result, shopping malls see more foot traffic, platforms see more orders, and tax invoices see a jump in sales revenue.

But for retailers, high growth does not mean synchronous profit growth. To seize the subsidy window, enterprises may invest more in promotion expenses; some merchants also need to advance the discount payment first, and the speed of capital return will affect their cash flow.

Brands also face another problem: consumers are willing to upgrade their products during the subsidy period, but will products still have enough appeal after subsidies are reduced?

If the growth mainly relies on price stimulus, the boom may fade as the event ends; if new products truly improve battery life, durability, AI functions or user experience, consumption may change from a holiday pulse to a relatively stable replacement demand.

When replacing household products, do not only look at the "instant discount" on the page

Faced with subsidies, discounts, free gifts, trade-in programs and interest-free installments, consumers are easily led by a prominent "maximum discount" label.

A really useful calculation method is to break down the replacement into four accounts.

First, check the final actual payment price.

Do not only look at how much the official price is reduced, but calculate all platform coupons, government subsidies, store discounts and member benefits. You also need to confirm whether different discounts can be stacked before making payment.

Second, check the actual trade-in value of the old device.

The valuation of old mobile phones is often affected by appearance, screen condition, battery health and maintenance records. The page shows the "maximum recycling price", while the final tested price may be different. The recycling price and subsidies should be calculated separately, so as not to mistake the inherent value of the old device for additional benefits given by the merchant.

Third, check whether the upgrade is really necessary.

If spending an extra 1000 yuan only brings performance that you will never use in daily life, subsidies may amplify impulsive consumption. If larger storage allows the device to be used for two more years, this upgrade may have practical value.

Fourth, check the full usage cycle.

The price of a mobile phone should not only be divided by the discount on the purchase day, but also take into account the expected service life, maintenance cost, battery replacement, system support and warranty coverage. A 4000-yuan mobile phone that can be used for four years is not necessarily more expensive than a 3000-yuan mobile phone that needs to be replaced in two years.

The same applies to household appliances. If you save hundreds of yuan at the time of purchase, but the product has higher energy consumption and more expensive after-sales services, the long-term account may not be cost-effective.

After the 119.8% growth, it is more important to see whether replacement demand can be sustained

The doubling of sales revenue of communication equipment during the holiday shows that household product replacement demand has not disappeared, but is waiting for a suitable window where price, product and time all meet.

However, the holiday data is only a short-term snapshot after all.

To judge whether digital consumption has truly entered a continuous recovery stage, we need to continue to observe several indicators: whether sales can remain stable after the holiday ends, whether sales volume and sales revenue grow synchronously, whether the average transaction price increases significantly, whether consumers are still willing to buy after subsidies exit, and whether old device recycling and after-sales services can keep up.

For the industry, 119.8% is an eye-catching report card; for households, it is more like a reminder:

Other people's concentrated product replacement does not mean you have to replace your products immediately. The most cost-effective consumption is not to catch up with all discounts, but to buy products that can be used for more years at a lower total cost when you actually need them.

This article is from the WeChat official account "BT Finance", written by Shuyan, authorized for release by 36Kr.