2026 China Film Report and Overseas Expansion Trends of Chinese Films: Without "Blockbusters" in the National Day Holiday Theatrical Slot, What Will Sustain the Chinese Film Industry?

12 new films are assembled, with genre films taking the lead.

A few days before the National Day holiday, the full lineup of films for the 2026 National Day box office season has been finalized. As of September 27, a total of 12 films have been scheduled for the Golden Week of the National Day holiday, covering multiple genres including criminal investigation, comedy, family, animation, horror and more.

The standard configuration of "main melody blockbusters + top commercial films" in previous National Day seasons is absent this year.

There are no heavyweight tribute films, nor super blockbusters. The main lineup for this year's National Day holiday mostly consists of mid-to-low budget genre films.

And this is exactly the most noteworthy part of this year's National Day season: without top-tier blockbusters, can the mid-tier supply support the overall box office of the season?

To understand the situation of the National Day box office season, we first look at the underlying context of China's film market this year.

As of August 31, the total box office of China's film market in 2026 reached 28.1 billion yuan, with over 700 million moviegoers. This figure is not amazing, but the structure is improving.

The Spring Festival holiday season closed with 5.752 billion yuan, with 120 million moviegoers and 4.35 million screenings hitting a record high for the Spring Festival season, and the average ticket price dropped by 6% year-on-year, the lowest in nearly 6 years.

The summer box office hit a new record of 12.498 billion yuan, with 340 million moviegoers and 38.51 million screenings, up 5.86% and 4.45% year-on-year respectively, and the average ticket price was 36.7 yuan, the lowest in five years.

Growth is driven by "more people going to cinemas" rather than ticket prices. With ticket prices falling to a low point, screenings hitting a new high, and the number of moviegoers outpacing box office growth year-on-year — this is a healthier market structure, yet the scarcity of standalone blockbusters is also an undeniable fact.

In the Spring Festival season, only *Pegasus 3* grossed over 2.9 billion yuan at the top, while the summer season relied on three titles *Kung Fu Women's Football*, *Dragon Restaurant* and *Eight Immortals!* to hold up half the market.

The "blockbuster myth" of *Nezha 2* grossing 15.4 billion yuan on its own, accounting for nearly 30% of the total annual box office in 2025, did not repeat in 2026.

Word-of-mouth and box office are increasingly "diverging along different paths"

During the Spring Festival season, *Biao Ren: Blades of the Guardians - Wind Rises in the Desert* was only ranked 4th in the number of opening-day screenings. Relying on its 7.5/10 score on Douban, it rose to 3rd on the 3rd day and 2nd on the 4th day, becoming the only film in the Spring Festival season that achieved a reverse drop in daily box office. It finally grossed 1.351 billion yuan, refreshing the box office record for domestic wuxia films. Four generations of action actors shared the screen, real-scene shooting in the Gobi Desert of Xinjiang, and about 40% of the horse battle scenes were fully real — genre purity and production sincerity can still leverage more screenings in reverse.

By the summer season, the relationship between word-of-mouth and box office became more complicated.

*Welcome to Dragon Restaurant*, directed by Wen Muye and starring Shen Teng, was released on August 14, with a 8.7/10 score on Douban, 500,000 people rated it, and nearly half gave it 5 stars, making it the domestic live-action film with the highest reputation in the 2026 summer season. But its final box office was about 1.951 billion yuan, ranking second in the summer season, lower than another film with more controversial reviews.

The summer season champion *Kung Fu Women's Football*, directed by Stephen Chow after a 7-year hiatus, starring Zhang Xiaofei, Dilraba and Zhang Yixing, grossed over 400 million yuan in 2 days and 800 million yuan in 5 days, finally taking the summer championship with 2.315 billion yuan. But its opening Douban score was only 6.6, with 17% 5-star ratings and 8.6% 1-star ratings, showing obvious divergence in audience reputation.

This batch of mid-budget genre films for the National Day season is facing the same test: without the backing of IP and top traffic, word-of-mouth has almost become the only leverage.

The quality of mid-tier films determines the ceiling of the whole season

Several predictions about this year's National Day box office season:

First, the overall box office will most likely be lower than the same period in previous years. With the absence of top-tier blockbusters and main melody tribute films, none of the 12 films has the capacity to hit over 2 billion yuan at the box office. The total box office of the season may fall in the range of 2-3 billion yuan, which depends on whether *Detective: Trace* can run a dark horse curve with the combination of Chen Sicheng, Zhang Yi and Ma Li.

Second, genre coverage is an advantage, but there is a lack of "must-watch reasons". Criminal investigation, comedy, female reality-themed, parent-child animation, imported horror films all have their own basic audience groups, but each of them faces competition from similar films or audience ceiling. For parent-child animation, there is *Peppa Pig* and *Big Head Son*; for comedy, there is *What a Couple* but no strong IP; for criminal investigation, there is Chen Sicheng but the theme is relatively serious.

Third, the true significance does not lie in the box office figures, but in whether the "T-shaped" mid-tier supply has taken shape. This is a key window to test whether mid-tier supply can support the whole season when there are no large blockbusters. If the 12 films can jointly achieve a decent box office figure, it indicates that the market structure of Chinese films is shifting from "betting on blockbusters" to "relying on a sound system".

Looking ahead to the 2027 Spring Festival season, three types of blockbusters will compete head-on

After the National Day season, the next real "big box office season" is the 2027 Spring Festival, which has already locked in the most intense collision in the history of Chinese film industry.

As of September 28, three top-tier blockbusters have officially announced their release schedules for the first day of the 2027 Lunar New Year: *The Wandering Earth 3 (Part 1)*, *Fengshen 3: The Conquest of the Gods* and *Man Jiang Hong 2*.

Guo Fan's sci-fi, Wuershan's oriental mythology, Zhang Yimou's costume suspense comedy — three different industrial paths of domestic blockbusters compete in the same season, which is called "the most intense Spring Festival season for domestic blockbusters in over a decade". Shen Teng stars in both *The Wandering Earth 3* and *Man Jiang Hong 2*, leading to internal competition for box office; *Fengshen 3* is the final battle for Beijing Culture after six consecutive years of losses and Wuershan mortgaging his own property to raise funds, facing dual pressure of reputation and commercial performance.

Going global: From "single hit" to "systematic global breakthrough"

If we look at the overseas market, structural changes are also taking place in the global expansion of Chinese films.

In 2025, the overseas box office of Chinese films exceeded 1 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year (441 million yuan in 2024), covering 46 countries and regions. However, the growth was highly dependent on *Nezha: The Devil's Birth*, whose overseas revenue accounted for more than 80% of the total annual overseas box office, with a global cumulative gross of 2.267 billion US dollars, ranking 4th on the global all-time box office list. The rest of the films grossed a total of about 100-200 million US dollars, comparable to historical levels.

As of late August 2026, the cumulative overseas revenue reached 450 million yuan, with more than 20 films released overseas in the first half of the year, showing a trend of "top-tier hits receding and mid-tier films expanding coverage". *The Love Letter to Grandma* grossed over 100 million yuan in Southeast Asia and the North American Chinese community, with overseas box office exceeding its domestic performance; *Eight Immortals!* is to be released, which will take over the animation overseas momentum from *Nezha 2*; *Biao Ren* was released globally after the Spring Festival season, with overseas revenue of about 20 million US dollars.

Animation is the strongest genre for overseas expansion. With low cross-cultural barriers and no dependence on actors' popularity, *Nezha 2* is the ceiling, followed by *Chang'an* and *Eight Immortals!*.

Global simultaneous release has become the norm. In 2026, films from the Spring Festival season such as *Biao Ren* and *Silent Awakening* achieved simultaneous global release.

Dual drive of localization and co-production. Upgraded from "translating Chinese subtitles into English" to AI dubbing, local marketing, and local distribution cooperation. China and Russia, China and Spain have signed film cooperation agreements.

From content export to system export. WeTV covers more than 170 countries and regions. Film technology, production services and standard systems are going global together, and Chinese film festivals have entered 43 countries and regions.

Obvious hidden worries also remain: 80% of overseas revenue is contributed by *Nezha 2*, and the reliance on single hits has not been solved; the box office ceiling for a single film in the mainstream North American market is still in the range of 20-30 million US dollars; apart from animations, realistic-themed films face great difficulties in breaking through in the mainstream Western market.