Is there still hope for the printing industry in 2026?

Recently I went through two articles I wrote a long time ago about the printer industry, and suddenly gained some new insights, so I dug through dozens of reports on the printer market, and the more I read, the more interesting I found it.

The following two are observations from a long time ago:

The Harsh Truth of the Printer Industry in 2024

How Can Zhuhai's Printing Consumables Industry "Secure Sufficient Food and Warm Clothing"?

The same thing, when told by different people, is completely two different worlds.

Some see zero growth, while others see a growth rate of 4.68%.

Some shake their heads and sigh as the unit price of A4 black and white printers drops from 670 yuan to 590 yuan, while others slap the table at the 76.6% growth rate of industrial digital textile printing machines.

Some people ask if there is still hope for the printing industry?

Others have already laid out their next round of plans in Zhuhai, Shenzhen and Suzhou.

This sense of fragmentation precisely indicates that the printing industry is undergoing a profound reshuffle: old businesses are shrinking, new businesses are exploding, old players are exiting the market, and new players are entering.

Therefore, if you only stare at the dusty printer in the office, you will certainly think this industry is hopeless.

But what if you look at a broader scope? For example, thermal labels in warehouses, UV inkjet coding on packaging lines, digital printing in garment factories, Xinchuang (information technology application innovation) devices in government systems, and laser printers that have frequently appeared in the Chinese market in recent years, you will have different perceptions.

How Big Is the Printer Market Exactly?

I found that the data mentioned in several reports are completely different.

In the global printer market, one report says the market size will reach 53.02 billion US dollars in 2025 and 71.09 billion US dollars in 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.4%.

Another report states that the market size has reached 66.49 billion US dollars in 2025, and will hit 100.35 billion US dollars in 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.68%.

There is also a report indicating that the market size was only 15.07 billion US dollars in 2025 and 15.08 billion US dollars in 2026, with almost zero growth.

Three reports, three figures, with the largest gap exceeding four times.

If you are new to this industry and see these three sets of data, you will definitely be confused about the industry's data, and even find it unbelievable. But in fact, every one of these reports is true, they just count completely different things.

The 53-billion-dollar report counts the comprehensive market of complete printers, consumables and services.

The 66.4-billion-dollar report also includes equipment such as industrial printing, large-format printing and digital textile printing.

The 15-billion-dollar report only counts the ex-factory sales of traditional office printers, not even including consumables.

Therefore, if you stack these three layers together, the real structure of the printing industry will emerge.

The traditional office printing sector is indeed on the decline.

From January to September 2026, central state agencies procured 17,832 printers, with a winning bid amount of 26.3881 million yuan and a weighted average price of 1,480 yuan. 1,429 copiers were procured, with a winning bid amount of 24.9044 million yuan and a weighted average price of 17,428 yuan.

With a volume more than ten times that of copiers, printers only get less than double the amount of money.

The unit price of A4 black and white printers dropped from 670 yuan in January to 590 yuan in September, and that of A3 color printers dropped from 14,700 yuan to 6,800 yuan, a drop of more than 50%.

Price wars have reached such a level, indicating that low-end office printing has been completely commoditized.

But the industrial printing sector presents a completely different picture.

In the first half of 2025, the revenue of China's industrial digital textile printing machines was 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.6%. The annual market size of digital industrial printers is expected to exceed 8 billion yuan, with a growth rate remaining above 10%.

The overall large-format digital printer market declined by 2.8%, but UV ink products bucked the trend and grew by 9.7%. Inkjet printing accounts for more than 50% of the total global output, the penetration rate of garment printed fabrics reached 31.2%, and that of fabrics such as flannelette is close to 40%.

From these two sets of data, the real development trend of the printing industry we see is very clear.

One of the trends is that office printing is in deflation while industrial printing is in inflation.

The second trend is that the information printed on A4 paper is decreasing, while the information printed on packaging, labels, textiles and industrial parts is increasing.

So, is there something wrong with the printer product? No! I think the scenario where printing behavior occurs is shifting.

The chaos of statistical calibers essentially stems from the expansion of industry boundaries. Ten years ago, when you mentioned printers, everyone would think of the laser or inkjet equipment in the office. Today, when you talk about printers, it may be a thermal printer for printing waybills in the warehouse, a UV device for inkjet coding on the packaging line, an industrial machine for digital printing in the garment factory, or a domestic all-in-one machine running the Xinchuang system in the government service hall. Putting all these things into the same statistical basket will naturally lead to conflicting data.

So the first conclusion is very clear: the printing industry is not dead, it has just evolved from a mature office equipment industry into a composite industry covering office equipment, industrial equipment, consumables and chemicals, chip modules, cloud services and other sectors.

Using old rulers to measure new industries will naturally lead to inaccurate results.

If you want to see if this industry has hope, you must first figure out which layer you are looking at.

Where Have All the Printing Demands Gone?

The underlying logic of the printing industry over the past three decades has always been "turning digital documents into paper", which has supported the entire product system of laser printers, inkjet printers, copiers and all-in-one machines.

The office is the core scenario, A4 paper is the core medium, and documents are the core content.

But this logic is now being squeezed by two forces at the same time.

The first is paperless office. Cloud documents, electronic signatures, remote collaboration, and online approval have moved a large number of processes that originally required printing to the screen.

The second is digitalization. E-commerce, logistics, intelligent manufacturing, and personalized consumption have turned a large number of scenarios that originally did not require printing into scenarios where printing is mandatory.

What paperless office eliminates is information paper: contracts, reports, notices and documents are being rapidly digitized.

In the 2026 central government procurement data, the unit price of A4 black and white printers has dropped to 590 yuan, which means that the demand of the government and enterprises for such equipment has changed from "meeting functional requirements" to "just enough for use".

Large volume, low price, high homogeneity: these are typical characteristics of the recession period.

What digitalization has spawned is functional paper. For every additional parcel in e-commerce, one more thermal waybill is added; for every additional SKU of the brand, one more set of packaging labels is added; for every new style of clothing, one more round of digital printing is added. These are not "printing out documents", but "printing information on objects".

This difference is very important.

The demand ceiling of information paper is the number of office workers and the number of documents, both of which are declining in the digital age.

The demand ceiling of functional paper is the number of commodities and circulation links, both of which are rising in the era of e-commerce and intelligent manufacturing.

Looking at the export structure of China's printing equipment, the export volume of thermal printers is 18.664 million units, accounting for 77.9% of the total export volume. What does this figure indicate? It shows that the main force of China's printing industry is no longer the laser printer in the office, but the thermal equipment in warehouses, logistics and retail scenarios.

Looking at the data of e-commerce platforms, the GMV of printing equipment and consumables on Tmall in 2025 reached 12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, the growth rate of 3D printers and consumables was 28%, that of inkjet printers and consumables was 19%, that of laser printers was 20%, and that of laser printing consumables decreased by 5%.

During the JD 11.11 shopping festival, the transaction volume of high-yield laser printers increased by more than 50% year-on-year, the number of users of photo developing services increased by more than 70%, the transaction volume of commercial inkjet printers increased by more than 100%, that of color laser printers increased by more than 100%, and that of trending 3D printing products increased by more than 110%.

All these data indicate that consumers have been more inclined to complete printing solutions: home offices need inkjet printers, creative design needs 3D printers, personalized image processing needs photo developing services, and small enterprises need color laser printers. Printing demands are becoming scenario-based, equipment is becoming segmented, and consumables are becoming specialized.

The changes on the industrial side are more drastic. The explosion of digital textile printing machines is backed by the transformation of the garment industry from mass standardized production to small-batch personalized customization. Traditional printing can produce ten thousand identical clothes, while digital printing can produce one hundred different clothes.

The former does not need printers, while the latter cannot do without printers.

The counter-trend growth of UV ink products is driven by the rising demand of the packaging industry for environmental protection, durability and multi-material adaptability.

What traditional ink cannot achieve, UV ink can do.

Therefore, from all these situations, printing demands have not disappeared. They are shifting from office scenarios to commercial, industrial and consumer scenarios.

Who Is Making Money in the Printing Industry?

So, under such changes, are brands or distributors making huge profits?

It should be noted that the most classic business model in the printing industry is the "razor-blade" model: sell machines at a low price or even at a loss, and make continuous profits from subsequent cartridges, toner, ribbons and paper.

This model has dominated the printing industry for 30 years, and has shaped the profit distribution pattern of the entire industrial chain.

However, as the industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect, this model is also undergoing tremendous structural changes.

China's 2025 export data of printing consumables is very illustrative.

It is reported that the total export value reached 34.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. Laser/copier consumables reached 30.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, which is the largest drag. Inkjet consumables reached 2.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and ribbon consumables reached 1.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%.

Laser consumables are declining, while inkjet and ribbon consumables are rising.

This differentiation is backed by changes in the equipment structure. Laser printers mainly target office scenarios that are shrinking; inkjet printers target home, education and commercial scenarios that are growing; ribbons target bill, label and logistics scenarios that are exploding. The rise and fall of consumable categories directly reflects where printing demands are heading.

Zhuhai occupies a very special position in this pattern. In 2025, the export value of consumables in Guangdong was 20.556 billion yuan, of which Zhuhai accounted for about 18.556 billion yuan, accounting for 59.6% of the total national export value. Zhuhai's export of laser/copier consumables reached 17.224 billion yuan, inkjet consumables accounted for 42.3% of the national total, and ribbon consumables accounted for 31.1% of the national total.

Zhuhai is a veritable global capital of printing consumables, with complete industrial supporting facilities covering chips, molds, injection molding, toner, ink, packaging, logistics and foreign trade in a one-stop manner.

However, Zhuhai's advantages are almost exhausted. The stronger the compatible consumables industry is, the more original manufacturers will use patents, firmware and chips to block it.

Amazon has launched multiple 337 investigations against compatible consumables on its platform in 2025.

Original manufacturers add encryption to consumable chips, add verification to firmware, and lay patent mines. If compatible consumables enterprises only do substitution without original innovation, their road will become narrower and narrower.

At the same time, we found that the service market has been rising rapidly in recent years. Server-based printing is expected to account for 61.36% of the market share in 2026. Large enterprises, governments and banks need centralized management, security audit and permission control. Serverless and cloud printing has a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, driven by remote work, SOHO and distributed teams.

Large organizations need security and controllability, while small and micro enterprises and families need convenient wireless printing. Therefore, from the convergence of all these details, I believe that the future will definitely see the coexistence of two architectures: cloud printing and server-based printing.

On the other hand, managed print services (MPS) is another growth point. Enterprises no longer buy equipment, manage consumables or repair machines by themselves, but pay by page and outsource the entire printing infrastructure.

This model is relatively mature in North America and Europe, and is just starting in China.

For distributors, shifting from selling equipment to selling services, and from earning price differences to earning subscription fees, is the most important transformation direction in the next five years.

But behind all this, one thing is becoming more and more critical, that is chips.

The main control chip of printers, the encryption chip of consumables, and the connection chip of cloud printing determine the performance, security and compatibility of the equipment.

China has a very high localization rate in A4 black and white printers. Pantum and Lenovo alternately win bids in the central government procurement of A4 black and white printer packages, and domestic brands account for more than 80% of the total volume.

However, the localization rate of A3 copiers is less than 1%. Two Japanese manufacturers, Toshiba and Kyocera, jointly account for 83.41% of the volume and 86.53% of the amount.

The root of the gap lies in chips.

The technical threshold of A4 black and white single-function printers is relatively low, and the main control chip, domestic operating system adaptation and consumable system can be broken through gradually.

A3 copier is a complex system integrating printing, copying, scanning, fax, image processing, precision optics, double-sided document feeding, binding and network management. The difficulty of domestic substitution of main control chips, image processing units, precision optics and the complete consumable system is much higher.

The scope of security and reliability assessment has added the category of printer main control chips, and products such as Loongson 2P0500 have entered the testing stage. This is a positive signal, but there is still a long way to go before large-scale commercial application.