The whole world is scrambling for tungsten resources, the price of tungsten has surged 9 times in two years, upstream enterprises have made extremely high profits, some A-share listed companies have recorded a 25-fold surge in net profit, and their stock prices have risen by nearly 150% so far this year.

Known as the "industrial teeth", tungsten is seeing an epic skyrocketing market rally. The international tungsten price has surged by about 9 times in two years. At the same time, multiple countries have rolled out policies one after another to restrict tungsten exports, and competition for global tungsten resources is heating up.

Supply and demand mismatch drives tungsten price hike

Tungsten, with a melting point as high as 3422℃, is the metal with the highest melting point in nature. Known as the "industrial teeth", it is a critical mineral for national defense military industry, semiconductors and AI computing power.

In terms of global output distribution, China accounts for nearly 80% of the world's total output. According to the *China Mineral Resources Report 2026* released by the Ministry of Natural Resources, as of 2025, China's reserves of 14 minerals including tungsten and tin rank first in the world. The research report of China Merchants Securities on August 13 pointed out that China has officially implemented total volume control on tungsten mining (commonly known as the mining quota system in the market) since 2002, with an average annual compound growth rate of output of only 2.47%; China's tungsten reserves account for 47% of the global total and its output accounts for 78% of the global total.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) is the core intermediate product after the smelting of tungsten concentrate, which links tungsten concentrate upstream and tungsten powder and cemented carbide downstream. It is a key price indicator to observe the supply and demand tension of the tungsten industrial chain.

According to CCTV Finance reports, in mid-2024, the APT price in the Rotterdam market of the Netherlands was about 300 US dollars per "metric ton unit"; by May 2026, it has risen to about 3000 US dollars per "metric ton unit", an increase of about 9 times in two years.

Metric ton unit is a special pricing unit for tungsten trade, 1 metric ton unit refers to 1% of tungsten metal contained in 1 ton of material; the total value of goods equals the number of metric ton units multiplied by the unit price per metric ton unit. This pricing method facilitates direct price comparison and settlement of tungsten raw materials and APT of different grades, and is widely used in overseas spot markets.

According to Wind data, from September 2024 to September 2026, the domestic price of 65% tungsten concentrate rose from 138,000 yuan per ton to 415,000 yuan per ton, an increase of about 201%; the price of 88.5% ammonium paratungstate rose from 205,000 yuan per ton to 595,000 yuan per ton, an increase of about 190%; the price of 2-10um tungsten carbide rose from 302 yuan per kilogram to 840 yuan per kilogram, an increase of about 178%. After a round of sharp rise and deep correction during this period, the price is still at a historically high level.

The mismatch between supply and demand is the core logic of this round of price increase. According to CCTV Finance reports, S&P Global pointed out in its report released last month that the global demand for tungsten (calculated as tungsten trioxide) was about 162,000 tons in 2025, which is expected to grow by about 2% per year in the future, exceed 180,000 tons by 2030, and further rise to 202,000 tons by 2035.

The supply side is shrinking. The research report of Guojin Securities on September 11 cited data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association that the domestic output of tungsten concentrate in the first half of 2026 was 53,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.75%. At the same time, emerging demands such as PCB drill bits for AI servers and tungsten wires for photovoltaics are rising.

The research report released by CICC on July 30 predicts that the global tungsten supply and demand gap from 2026 to 2029 will reach 22,000 to 25,000 tons of metal, accounting for 13% to 14% of consumption.

LYU Yannan, tungsten industry analyst from Shanghai Steel Union, told China New Finance and Economics that the core driving factor for the rise in tungsten price is the supply and demand mismatch caused by rigid supply constraints superimposed on demand release, and the price continues to rise from the mining end. China implements total volume control on domestic tungsten mining, with continuously tightening quotas, declining ore grades of raw ores and long production cycle of new mines, resulting in extremely low supply elasticity; the release of new overseas production capacity is slow, superimposed on export control of scrap materials, the global tradable raw materials are further shrunk.

LYU Yannan pointed out that the sharp rise in tungsten price is unsustainable, but if the manufacturing industry recovers, emerging demands are fulfilled and superimposed on global strategic stockpiling, the price center is expected to remain in the historically high range with limited falling space.

Global scramble for tungsten continues to heat up

Behind the soaring price, the strategic status of tungsten is also leaping. According to the research report of Orient Securities on August 20, the hoarding and protection of strategic resources by various countries will continuously compress the total amount of available tungsten resources in global circulation and amplify price elasticity.

The United States is the most urgent. According to Reuters reports at the end of April, there are currently no operating commercial tungsten mines in the United States. According to another Reuters report on August 7, the United States imposed a one-year export ban on tungsten scrap and battery shreds at the end of August, and plans to tighten tungsten procurement restrictions in the national defense field starting from 2027.

The UK National Wealth Fund released information on August 25, planning to invest up to 71 million pounds to support TungstenWest to restart the Hemerdon Tungsten and Tin Mine, with a planned annual output of tungsten concentrate exceeding 3,000 tons after full production.

In addition, according to CCTV Finance reports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam has put forward a proposal to remove tungsten from the list of exportable minerals; Zimbabwe has fully suspended the export of all forms of antimony and tungsten.

Facing the global "scramble for tungsten" boom, China's advantages remain stable. The research report released by CICC on July 29 shows that the average processing fee of domestic APT and tungsten powder in China has increased by 331% and 447% respectively compared with 2025, the export structure is shifting to high value-added products, and the overseas premium has hit a record high.

The research report released by Minmetals Securities on September 14, 2026 pointed out that the end-user demand for tungsten in traditional fields is stable, and the explosive growth of emerging fields such as AI, humanoid robots and nuclear fusion will support the total tungsten consumption growth in the long run. Enterprises with high-quality mine resources and existing layout of high-end tungsten products will continue to benefit.

LYU Yannan said that in the next 5 to 10 years, it is difficult for other countries to shake China's tungsten resource advantages; in the medium and long term, China's share in global tungsten supply may decline slightly, but the advantage of a complete whole industrial chain can be maintained for a long time. The construction of new overseas tungsten mines generally takes 8 to 15 years from exploration to stable production, with low ore grades and higher costs than domestic mines, and smelting and processing is still a short board, a large number of overseas raw ores still need to be sent to China for processing. Alternative materials can only replace part of the application scenarios, and the high density and ultra-high melting point characteristics of tungsten are irreplaceable. China's core advantages are not only ore reserves, but also a complete industrial chain, mature smelting technology, scale cost and tungsten scrap recycling system.

Upstream tungsten mining enterprises gain huge profits

According to Wind statistics, the core A-share tungsten mining targets are Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-Tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten. The four enterprises saw a sharp profit growth in the first half of 2026: the attributable net profit of Xiamen Tungsten was 2.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.04%; the net profit of China Tungsten High-Tech was 2.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280.53%; the net profit of Zhangyuan Tungsten was 688 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 497.38%; the net profit of Xianglu Tungsten was 482 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2522.40%, which mainly benefited from the simultaneous rise of sales volume and price brought by the high tungsten price.

Wind shows that as of the close of September 16, the share prices of the four companies have risen sharply since the beginning of this year. China Tungsten High-Tech closed at 62.04 yuan, up 124.5% since the beginning of the year; Xianglu Tungsten closed at 35.95 yuan, up 149.4%; Zhangyuan Tungsten closed at 24.13 yuan, up 70.7%; Xiamen Tungsten closed at 50.60 yuan, up 24.0%.

LYU Yannan pointed out that upstream mining and beneficiation enterprises are the biggest beneficiaries, but restricted by quotas, the incremental space is limited; midstream smelting and processing enterprises only earn processing fees, raw material prices rise while product price adjustment lags behind, and the gross profit of enterprises that purchase raw materials externally is severely squeezed; the downstream market shows significant differentiation: high-end fields can pass on costs by technical barriers and bargaining power, low-end products face shrinking profits due to homogeneous competition, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the pressure of market exit. In the long run, the rise of tungsten price will promote production capacity to concentrate on leading enterprises, and the recycled tungsten recycling industry will speed up.

This article is from the WeChat official account "China New View" (ID: jwview), written by LI Ziman, published with authorization from 36Kr.