OpenAI scraps its plan to go public, SoftBank takes a nosedive first: its share price plunges by more than 10%, and the high-stakes bet on AI has started to be repriced.
The market originally expected SoftBank to make a huge fortune from OpenAI. However, what they got was a statement from Sam Altman: no IPO in 2026.
On Monday, SoftBank Group suffered its worst single-day sell-off on the Tokyo Stock Exchange since late June. Its share price plunged by more than 15% at one point during the session, and still closed down 10.72% at 5795 yen. The Nikkei 225 Index fell 2% that day, making SoftBank the worst-performing constituent stock.
What hurts even more is that SoftBank's share price has fallen by about 30% from its June high. But it is still up nearly 26% so far this year. In other words, this is not a "return to the starting point", but the market has begun to reprice its AI story.
The trigger: OpenAI will not go public in 2026
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed in a magazine interview that the company has no plans to go public in 2026.
This statement directly hit SoftBank.
SoftBank has invested about 650 billion US dollars in OpenAI. The market had previously widely expected that once OpenAI goes public, SoftBank will be able to cash out quickly and obtain rich returns. But now, this exit path has been delayed.
Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities, told reporters: "People are worried that the value of OpenAI may not be as high as previously expected." He also added that investors are closely watching whether the development speed of AI will slow down.
The voice of AI "slowing down" is also coming
What makes the market more nervous is another incident.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing down the R&D of advanced AI last weekend, on the grounds of concerns that AI may pose potential risks to human beings. It is reported that many frontier model developers, including SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Google DeepMind head Demis Hassabis, also support his view.
This directly conflicts with the aggressive timeline of SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son.
Masayoshi Son's AI strategy is built on the word "speed": fast investment, fast expansion, and fast return. However, if the entire AI industry slows down, OpenAI's valuation, listing pace and commercialization speed may all be re-examined.
The real overwhelming pressure comes from debt
Behind the plunge in share price, SoftBank's debt problem has been brought back to the table.
To invest in OpenAI, SoftBank has accumulated a large amount of debt, including bridge loans secured by a combination of its existing assets.
SoftBank announced last week that it plans to repay 25.9 billion US dollars out of the 40 billion US dollar credit line it previously obtained to support OpenAI investment, and the repayment deadline is exactly September 15.
According to Bloomberg reports, SoftBank has also arranged a new two-year credit facility of 11.87 billion US dollars, with commitments from about 20 financial institutions, exceeding the initial target of 10 billion US dollars.
In addition, SoftBank is also considering a variety of financing methods:
- Issue US dollar bonds worth up to 200 billion US dollars;
- Raise 100 billion US dollars by using its held OpenAI shares as collateral;
- Issue retail bonds worth 1 trillion yen, equivalent to about 65 billion US dollars.
According to the company's disclosure, SoftBank has obtained about 370 billion US dollars in funds before 2026 to support its commitments in the AI field. These funds are not only used for OpenAI, but also for other major transactions, including the planned acquisition of ABB Robotics and DigitalBridge.
SoftBank's AI exposure goes far beyond OpenAI
SoftBank's exposure to AI is not limited to OpenAI.
Arm Holdings, its chip design subsidiary, used to be a bright pearl in its investment portfolio, benefiting from the AI-driven surge in semiconductor demand. Once AI development slows down, the valuations of Arm and other technology companies will likely come under pressure accordingly.
Investors are also weighing: competition in the AI industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and issues such as security vulnerabilities and unauthorized activities of AI systems are constantly being reported. All these are increasing uncertainties.
The market is asking: When will the returns come?
The combination of multiple factors has made the market start to reassess one thing:
Can the tens of billions of US dollars that SoftBank has poured into AI quickly generate meaningful returns? If not, is the leverage added for this strategic financing reasonable?
Despite Monday's plunge, SoftBank's share price is still up nearly 26% so far this year, which shows how fierce the previous rally was. The stock's 52-week high is 9074 yen, and its 52-week low is 3365 yen.
The recent sell-off highlights that SoftBank's valuation is becoming increasingly sensitive to several factors: the outlook for AI spending, the future value of OpenAI, and whether large-scale investments can truly deliver returns.
For investors, there is only one key question:
Are the long-term potential gains from private AI equity investments sufficient to offset the short-term pressure brought by SoftBank's growing debt?
Monday's market reaction shows that at present, skepticism has gained the upper hand.
Masayoshi Son's big bet on AI is not over yet, but the capital market has begun to ask: When will the returns come? At what price?
This article is from the WeChat official account "Tech Business", and is authorized for release by 36Kr.