From "Traffic Dependency" to "Trust Compound Interest", what is the next growth formula for cross-border e-commerce? | Super Krypton Salon

Over the past few years, the core growth logic of cross-border e-commerce has been highly dependent on advertising investment. Following a standard workflow of stocking products, testing SKUs, driving traffic and scaling up operations, the business can keep rolling as long as the traffic cost is lower than the profit margin.

However, by 2026, this formula is losing its validity, and the cross-border e-commerce sector is undergoing a profound transformation from traffic-driven growth to trust-driven development. On one hand, traffic costs continue to rise steadily; on the other hand, platform rules are evolving at an accelerated pace, and the commission levels of e-commerce platforms including Shopee, TikTok Shop and Lazada have also been raised. Coupled with the rising costs of advertising and logistics, the overall operational pressure has multiplied, leading to stagnant or declining profits for most sellers.

As the extensive growth driven by traffic comes to an end, the industry has started to rethink what the sustainable growth engine truly is.

Squeezed by both high cost pressure and tightening platform rules, sellers' growth paths are facing unprecedented challenges — and the solution points exactly to a previously overlooked variable: consumer trust.

Traffic is getting increasingly expensive, and trust has become the new "hard currency"

The continuous rise in traffic costs forces overseas-oriented enterprises to re-examine their growth logic. The past model of "traffic investment equals growth" is facing severe challenges, with the ROI of advertising investment continuing to decline. Sellers that purely rely on platform traffic are having their profit margins squeezed by the ever-rising costs.

Synchronized with the change of cost structure is the evolution of consumers' decision-making logic. Trust is changing from a "bonus item" to a key factor that affects conversion rates.

The rise of independent sites is further confirming this trend, as they are accelerating to seize market share and becoming the main position for more and more overseas brands to precipitate user relationships and accumulate brand assets.

Although the user stickiness and long-term value of the DTC model are significantly better than those of the traditional platform model, it also comes with new challenges. On one hand, customer acquisition costs keep rising, the net profit from the first order of excellent brands continues to drop, and the repurchase rate has become the key to improving the overall customer lifetime value. On the other hand, in the process of brands shifting from "stocking products on platforms" to building "independent self-owned brands", they are facing the core trouble of diluted brand value.

The extensive growth driven by advertising investment is gradually being replaced by refined operation and brand trust building. Trust is becoming the scarcest asset in cross-border e-commerce. How to make "trust infrastructure" such as domain names, official websites and brand content truly support long-term brand value, and how to build a unified brand trust system between e-commerce platforms and independent sites, has become a problem that overseas-oriented enterprises must answer.

AI reshapes cross-border e-commerce, and the logic of traffic distribution is rewritten

Another easily overlooked dimension is that AI is reshaping the traffic distribution logic of e-commerce from two directions at the same time.

On one hand, mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and TikTok Shop are accelerating the embedding of AI capabilities into in-site recommendation and search systems, using functions such as AI shopping guides and intelligent Q&A to replace the traditional logic of keyword and advertising ranking; on the other hand, off-platform AI channels such as AI shopping agents and generative search are also bypassing the traditional e-commerce entrances to directly connect consumers with brands.

Therefore, brands are facing dual challenges: they need to be identified and recommended by the in-platform AI systems, and also need to be "understood" and recommended by AI agents outside the platforms. This means that when AI agents start making shopping decisions for consumers, whether brands can be accurately understood, indexed and recommended by AI systems will directly affect their traffic acquisition capability.

Under the traditional logic of search and advertising, brands can gain exposure through bidding ranking and keyword optimization; but under the AI recommendation logic, structured product data, user reviews, the richness of brand content, and the credibility of domain names will all become important bases for AI systems to judge whether to make recommendations.

When traffic is getting more and more expensive, consumers are getting more cautious, and AI is reshaping the entire traffic distribution logic, trust is no longer an abstract brand concept, but a core asset that can be quantified, operated and accumulated.

On September 16, 2026, 36Kr will join hands with VeriSign's "Deep Water Rules" overseas salon series, landing in Shanghai, the strategic hub city for Chinese enterprises' global expansion. We have specially invited guests including Zhi Zhang, Senior Director of Greater China at VeriSign, Yifei Zhang, Cross-border Business Brand Manager at Loctek, Fei Yang, Managing Partner of Ocean Stone, and Xiao Wang, Senior Product Expert for SME Applications at Alibaba Cloud, who will respectively bring forward unique insights and practical experience sharing.

The guests will focus on the theme "From 'Traffic Dependence' to 'Trust Compound Interest' — How Brand Trust Becomes the Ultimate Barrier for Cross-border E-Commerce", center on the core proposition of "how brand trust becomes the ultimate barrier", and discuss the new growth formula of cross-border e-commerce from "traffic dependence" to "trust compound interest". They will share cutting-edge insights and front-line practical experience, and conduct in-depth discussions with participating enterprises. Founders, CEOs of overseas-oriented enterprises, as well as heads of brand, operation and overseas business are welcome to sign up for participation, to jointly explore the new growth path for cross-border e-commerce in the AI era.