Multiple investment banks have sounded the alarm: AI investment sentiment will take a sharp turn in September

Following JPMorgan Chase, cautious sentiment on Wall Street is spreading rapidly.

On September 2, Wells Fargo officially joined the bearish camp, becoming the second large investment bank this week to turn cautious on the future trend of U.S. stocks.

The analyst team led by chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon explicitly pointed out that after entering September, the market will show a sentiment of "general caution".

This statement undoubtedly poured a bucket of cold water on the U.S. stock market that has been hovering at historical highs recently.

Wells Fargo's shift is not an isolated incident. Just the day before, JPMorgan Chase had taken the lead in adjusting its stock view for the coming weeks to "tactical caution".

The successive statements of the two major investment banks mark that Wall Street's attitude towards U.S. stocks is undergoing subtle and profound changes.

The core logic behind Wells Fargo analysts' turn to caution lies in deep doubts about the sustainability of the AI investment boom.

Kwon said bluntly in the report: "AI demand will continue to accelerate, but the economy and capital will be constraints."

He expects that concerns about capital expenditure on AI infrastructure construction will peak in the near term.

If economic growth is not sufficient to support further massive investment, the AI capital expenditure cycle may enter a late stage in 2027, and the growth rate is expected to peak in the next quarter.

In addition to the expectation of peaking AI capital expenditure, the approaching U.S. mid-term elections have also added huge uncertainty to the market.

Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that as election day approaches, there may be more cases of suspended data center construction in the United States.

This risk of sudden policy brake directly hits the long-term growth logic of the AI industrial chain.

In addition, the deterioration of the macro environment cannot be ignored.

The hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh earlier have pushed the market to increase bets on interest rate hikes this year.

The continuation of the high interest rate environment and the sell-off of European and American bonds will undoubtedly further curb enterprises' willingness to spend capital, especially for AI infrastructure projects that are highly sensitive to capital, while AI users themselves will also be constrained by the high interest rate environment.

Although Wells Fargo has issued a cautious warning, the market is not entirely pessimistic.

Some analyst teams pointed out that after the sell-off in mid-August, the current sentiment indicators are still more positive than negative.

This shows that although institutions are tactically conservative, the long positions in the market have not completely collapsed, and some funds are still waiting for opportunities. In addition, the VIX index is at a low level, indicating that market sentiment is still calm.

However, this is very subtle for ordinary investors, because the withdrawal of large funds often precedes retail investors, who are often slow to respond.

Over the past two years, the AI narrative has driven an epic bull market in U.S. tech stocks, but any narrative has a valuation ceiling.

When the three factors of peaking capital expenditure growth, intensifying policy risks and tightening macro liquidity overlap, the valuation system of the AI sector will face severe restructuring pressure.

For A-share and Hong Kong stock investors, the trends of leading U.S. AI stocks have strong vane significance. If U.S. AI capital expenditure really peaks in the next quarter, the valuation logic of the global computing power industrial chain will be adjusted accordingly.

In addition, historically, the performance of U.S. stocks in September has not been very good, so some risk avoidance measures need to be taken in advance.

Finally, it should be noted that the long-term value of the AI industry does not need to be proven anymore, but the rhythm of the stock market also needs to be taken seriously. After all, there are countless investors who see the long-term value clearly but step on the wrong rhythm and get washed out by the market halfway.

If you want to seize opportunities steadily, you need reverse thinking and wait for a major market pullback before making a move.

Never worry about missing out, because opportunities are like buses, there is always the next one, and the only premise is that you need a little more patience.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Gelonghui APP" (ID: hkguruclub), written by Gejila, and published with authorization by 36Kr.