What economic signals has Zhong Caiwen released by publishing four consecutive articles?

From August 22 to 25, *People's Daily* published four consecutive comment articles signed "Zhong Caiwen".

Since 2024, central media have published a total of 23 articles signed "Zhong Caiwen". Judging from the release timing, these articles are basically published around important central economic work conferences, and are known as the "instruction manual" for understanding the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference.

The four comments released this time are titled *The Resilience and Vitality of China's Economy*, *China: A Positive Contributor and Strong Stabilizer to World Economic Growth*, *What Does the 4.7% Economic Growth in the First Half of the Year Indicate?*, and *Promote High-Quality Development Steadily and Far-reachingly*. They provide a comprehensive interpretation of China's economy from the perspectives of domestic and international situations, the economic performance in the first half of the year, and subsequent policy measures.

Reporters from *National Business Daily* (hereinafter referred to as "NBD Reporters") noticed that compared with the relevant statements of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting held on July 30, new expressions such as "actively cultivate and expand emerging consumption", "form a transmission chain of fiscal guidance, financial amplification and market operation", and "gradually and steadily promote the price reform of public utilities such as water supply, gas supply and heating" appeared in the fourth comment. Focusing on this series of new expressions, NBD reporters interviewed relevant experts.

Abundant Available Fiscal Funds

Regarding the economic growth rate in the first half of the year, the article holds that in the first half of the year, major economic indicators operated steadily, employment and prices remained stable, and the 4.7% growth rate basically matches the current conditions of factor supply, technological progress and institutional innovation, which is a realistic speed in line with the potential economic growth rate. Major economic provinces generally exceeded the national average growth rate and played a key supporting role.

Regarding the space for fiscal policy, the article puts forward for the first time: "In the first half of this year, the average daily national treasury deposit balance was relatively large, reflecting that there are abundant available fiscal funds."

How to view the investment direction of fiscal funds? Which fields can play a greater driving role in economic development when invested?

In this regard, Zhang Zhijian, Director of the China Construction Investment Research Institute, said in a written interview with NBD reporters that the high average daily treasury deposit balance represents sufficient deployable financial resources, creating conditions for policy implementation, but the stock funds must be allocated as soon as possible to form actual workload at an early date. Fiscal investment adheres to the performance-oriented principle, strictly controls ineffective expenditures, and directs financial resources to the fields with the highest comprehensive benefits. Key projects such as expanding domestic demand, ensuring people's livelihood, developing new quality productive forces, and shoring up weak links should be given priority for funding guarantee.

Form a Transmission Chain of Fiscal Guidance, Financial Amplification and Market Operation

In terms of the next step of fiscal policy arrangement, NBD reporters noticed that in addition to continuing a series of new expressions from the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting on July 30, such as "timely plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies", "accelerate the progress of fiscal expenditure and the use of bond funds", and "optimize and implement the fiscal-financial coordination policy to boost domestic demand", this series of "Zhong Caiwen" comment articles also put forward a number of new expressions for policy details.

For example, the article proposes: "Optimize and implement the fiscal-financial coordination policy to boost domestic demand, and form a transmission chain of fiscal guidance, financial amplification and market operation."

How to understand this transmission chain? What is the key to forming smooth transmission?

Zhang Zhijian believes that this mechanism represents that the fiscal and financial coordination has shifted from simple superposition to institutionalized linkage, and the key to unblocking this linkage mechanism is "collaborative interaction". Fiscal guidance mainly defines the support direction and releases clear policy signals through interest discount, risk compensation, guarantee and credit enhancement and other means. Financial amplification mainly gives play to the financial leverage function to achieve the effect of "using a small force to move a large weight". Market operation mainly allows market entities to make independent decisions in project selection, risk pricing and other aspects. It is necessary to reasonably divide the risk boundaries of the three parties, prevent financial institutions from bearing all the risks alone, remove the last mile of policy implementation, and promote policy tools to be transformed into implementable financial products.

Actively Cultivate and Expand Emerging Consumption

In terms of effectively expanding domestic demand, the article makes a judgment on China's consumption structure: the commodity consumption in some fields in China has become saturated or entered a phased plateau period. It is necessary to adapt to the consumption needs of different groups, expand high-quality supply, and actively cultivate and expand emerging consumption.

Different from the previous "cultivate and expand new-type consumption", this article puts forward "actively cultivate and expand emerging consumption" for the first time.

Which emerging consumption fields are worthy of attention?

In this regard, Zhang Zhijian believes that the adjustment from "new-type consumption" to "emerging consumption" reflects the change of the judgment focus. "New-type consumption" focuses more on model and business format innovation, such as the integration of online and offline and platform business models, with the focus on transforming and upgrading existing consumption forms. While "emerging consumption" puts more emphasis on "new growth drivers", pointing to the new supply and new demand spawned by technological iteration and industrial transformation, such as AI+ consumption, service consumption, experience consumption, etc. The key word "emerging" means that it is in the growth stage and in the period of cultivation and rise.

Strengthen the Supply of Advanced Computing Power

In the first half of the year, new driving forces contributed more than 40% directly to economic growth. In the first 7 months, the contribution rate of new driving forces to the growth of industries above designated size exceeded 50% for the first time.

The article points out that to promote high-quality development steadily and far-reachingly, it is necessary to promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. We will further implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, create new forms of intelligent economy, promote artificial intelligence technology to empower all industries, and at the same time improve the artificial intelligence governance system and accelerate the process of basic legislation on artificial intelligence.

At the same time, on the supply side, compared with the relevant statements of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting on July 30, the article proposes that "we should not only strengthen the supply of advanced computing power, but also avoid rushing into projects without proper planning".

How to understand this statement? What kind of computing power belongs to advanced computing power?

Pan Helin, a member of the Expert Committee on Information and Communication Economy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in a WeChat interview with NBD reporters that "strengthening the supply of advanced computing power" solves the problem of "insufficient supply". At present, the underlying shortcomings of domestic computing power are still prominent, and the pressure to catch up with the international cutting-edge level is relatively high. Especially in terms of high-end intelligent computing power required for AI (Artificial Intelligence) large model training and reasoning, restricted by the production capacity and process technology of advanced chips, the supply gap is still prominent. "Avoid rushing into projects without proper planning" solves the problem of "poor usability". Some regions, divorced from their local industrial foundation and technical capabilities, blindly launch computing power projects, resulting in a tendency of high idle rate of computing power and intensified homogeneous competition.

Pan Helin believes that advanced computing power includes intelligent computing power and supercomputing power. Intelligent computing power takes GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), NPU (Neural Network Processing Unit), ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) as the core computing units, while supercomputing power is provided by supercomputers, and ordinary computing power mainly refers to general-purpose computing power.

Gradually and Steadily Promote the Price Reform of Public Utilities

In terms of creating a fair and orderly market competition environment, aiming at the supply of public utilities, compared with the relevant statements of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting on July 30, the article proposes to "gradually and steadily promote the price reform of public utilities such as water supply, gas supply and heating".

How to understand the direction of price reform of public utilities such as water supply, gas supply and heating?

Pan Helin believes that the key words are "gradual" and "steady", which convey a firm yet prudent attitude towards the price reform of public utilities. The main direction of public utility reform is market-oriented reform, with the general principle of "controlling the middle link and liberalizing the two ends". Specifically, it includes improving the dynamic price adjustment mechanism, promoting the linkage of upstream and downstream prices of natural gas and other products, optimizing the tiered price system for residents, and clearing unreasonable charges, etc..

(Disclaimer: The content and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before use. Anyone who operates based on this shall bear the risks on their own.)

This article is from the WeChat official account "National Business Daily", author: Zhang Hong, authorized by 36Kr for release.