Securing licenses, scrambling for ecosystem dominance, betting on standards: the undercurrents and hidden strategic calculations behind the two satellite IoT licenses
For constellation operators, every day in the past two years has been eroding their first-mover advantage, and the final results are entirely measured by delivery and contracted data.
On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued the second commercial test license for satellite Internet of Things in China, with a test period of two years, held by Geespace.
The first license was issued more than three months ago. In May 2026, Guodian Hi-Tech obtained the first domestic license, and will carry out a two-year commercial test based on the Tianqi constellation.
Two licenses issued within three months belong to Guodian Hi-Tech (41 satellites in orbit) and Geespace (64 satellites in orbit) respectively. There are many domestic companies developing LEO satellite IoT constellations, but the licenses are exactly awarded to the two companies with the largest in-orbit scale at present.
Comparing the official approval documents and access conditions with the actual operations of these two companies, you will find that the changes in the industry can never be summed up simply by the phrase "accelerated commercialization".
I. Five Thresholds and Two Licenses
The thresholds for commercial testing originate from the Notice on Organizing and Carrying out Commercial Tests of Satellite Internet of Things Services issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in November 2025, which requires meeting five conditions at the same time:
Obtain the satellite mobile frequency use license and space station license;
The constellation construction project has been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission;
Possess in-orbit serviceable satellite systems and complete supporting ground operation control, service and management support systems;
Have complete capabilities in cybersecurity, data security and emergency support;
Have the capability to provide long-term stable services across the country.
The first two conditions mainly test time and capital input.
The application cycle for satellite mobile frequency licenses is usually calculated in years, and the approval from the National Development and Reform Commission corresponds to the entire project initiation process of constellation construction. Both licensed companies have invested several years in these two links.
The third condition directly screens out companies that have not yet completed constellation networking.
The current progress of major domestic players is as follows:
▪ Guodian Hi-Tech: The first phase of the Tianqi constellation, consisting of 38 satellites, has completed networking, with a total of 41 satellites launched. The second phase plans to launch test satellites by the end of this year and complete networking before 2028.
▪ Geespace: Completed the first-phase networking in September 2025, with 64 satellites in orbit covering the global surface except the North and South Poles, capable of processing about 340 million communication requests every day.
▪ CASIC: The Xingyun constellation has a total planned 80 satellites, with 18 satellites in orbit as of April 2026.
Most other commercial constellation companies still have single-digit to more than a dozen satellites in orbit. Comparing these five thresholds, only the two licensed companies can currently meet the three hard conditions of frequency approval, national development and reform commission verification, and in-orbit systems at the same time. For companies with smaller in-orbit scale, it is difficult to apply for commercial tests in the short term.
The core change brought by the license is the legitimacy of charging fees. Prior to this, China's satellite IoT was managed for a long time with reference to terrestrial IoT or traditional satellite communications, lacking an independent business classification, and there were compliance risks in signing long-term commercial contracts.
After obtaining the approval, licensed companies can carry out pilot operations in accordance with the law and sign multi-year service contracts.
Lv Qiang, Chairman of Guodian Hi-Tech, said that previously, government and central SOE customers could not carry out large-scale cooperation due to qualification issues, and the business could only shift from demonstration applications to full commercialization after obtaining the approval.
For constellation companies, this is the premise of shifting from project-based delivery to continuous service revenue.
Wang Yang, founder of Geespace, also expressed a similar view:
The real watershed does not lie in the number of launches or satellites, but in the operational capability to continuously acquire paying users and achieve long-term revenue after the constellation networking is completed.
In terms of equity structure, China Mobile's subsidiary CM Capital has made a strategic investment in Guodian Hi-Tech, holding 39.85% of the shares to become its largest shareholder. So far, one of the two licenses is backed by operator capital, and the other relies on Geely's automotive industry chain, showing different background attributes.
II. Open Source Hierarchy and Vertical Delivery
Before getting the license, Geespace released the full-stack open source ecosystem of LEO communication constellation during MWC Shanghai on June 24, splitting the constellation communication capabilities into five layers for open access: terminal hardware, standardized communication modules, self-developed satellite communication chips, satellite communication protocols, and satellite system resources.
Hierarchical opening allows different types of partners to access as needed. Chip manufacturers can integrate communication protocols in the design stage, terminal manufacturers can directly call modules, and system integrators can get complete solutions to deliver to customers.
This lowers the threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises to build satellite communication systems. During the exhibition, more than 200 partners reached cooperation intentions, and the on-site signed orders exceeded 100 million yuan, covering ten industries including marine fisheries, construction machinery, energy, smart agriculture, and low-altitude economy.
Combining open source and licensing, its business logic is relatively clear, the open source part is concentrated on the access side (hardware, modules, chips, protocols, system resources), partners access the constellation through these interfaces, and the generated connection revenue flows back to the operator; while the core assets (spectrum, licenses, the constellation itself) remain in the hands of the operator.
Hardware profits are transferred to ecological partners, and connection revenue belongs to operators, this model is similar to the mobile operating system ecosystem.
However, the barriers of satellite IoT are higher. The ecosystem of mobile systems relies on first-mover advantage and scale accumulation, while the spectrum and licenses of satellite IoT have delineated the competition pattern before the ecosystem is established.
Guodian Hi-Tech has not adopted the open source route, but is also promoting ecological construction. The Tianqi constellation is equipped with a self-developed module system, focusing on the implementation of industrial applications:
▪ According to public reports, the number of its globally connected operating terminals has exceeded 100,000, with services covering more than 20 countries and regions;
▪ The satellite communication power bank for the consumer market is priced at two to three hundred yuan;
▪ Overseas, it has signed a cooperation agreement with Malaysian satellite operator MEASAT, and is also docking markets in the Middle East, South America, South Africa and other regions.
The difference between the two companies lies in the choice of downstream control granularity. One side opens the interface to the chip layer for partners to combine freely; the other side controls modules and terminals for vertical delivery. This provides downstream enterprises with different access paths.
III. Private Protocols and IoT NTN Standards
In terms of communication protocols, both constellations currently adopt private systems and select the UHF/VHF frequency band. The private protocol means that the terminal ecosystem will be bound to the constellation operator, and accessing the network of one party means belonging to its system.
At the same time, the 3GPP standard route is also advancing:
▪R17 (2022): Wrote NB-IoT NTN into the standard, allowing standard chips to connect directly to satellites.
▪R19 (frozen at the end of 2025): Added on-board regenerative payloads and store-and-forward capabilities, promoting the evolution of satellite IoT from "transparent forwarding" to "on-board autonomy".
Among overseas players, Sateliot bets on the standard route, has raised a total of nearly 100 million euros, and launched a 100 million euros Series C financing in April 2026, with 270 million euros of reservation contracts in hand; Skylo provides NB-IoT NTN commercial services based on GEO satellites.
Overseas companies that adopt private protocols show differentiated performance. Swarm was acquired by SpaceX in 2021 and became a business supplement of Starlink; Astrocast adheres to the private protocol route, has a constellation of 18 nanosatellites, and after listing in Oslo in 2021, completed privatization and delisting in August 2024.
Domestic constellation companies are also following up the standard construction. Geespace has completed ground tests based on the 3GPP IoT NTN standard. In July this year, the 7th meeting of the 5G NTN Working Group of the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group passed the research project led by it, planning to include the VHF/UHF frequency band into the IoT NTN standard frequency band. Private constellation companies have thus begun to participate in the formulation of national standards for LEO satellite IoT.
If the VHF/UHF frequency band is finally included in the IoT NTN standard, private protocols and standard protocols will gradually converge. The first-mover protocol advantage of constellation operators may be transformed into standard discourse power, or may be diluted by the unified standard, which will affect the pattern of the terminal industry in the next few years.
The implementation of the two licenses brings a multiple-choice question to the downstream industrial chain: accessing Geespace has a low upfront cost, but the switching cost is high after deep technical binding; accessing Guodian Hi-Tech has fast delivery, but the terminals are heavily bundled with a single constellation. Therefore, many manufacturers choose the "universal baseband + dual protocol stack" solution to spread risks.
During the two-year commercial test period, tariffs and policies are still uncertain, and the downstream industry is also observing the expansion capability and operation stability of the two companies.
Referring to the experience of overseas Iridium, which generates hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue with 80% of its users coming from the IoT sector, whether the constellation scale, qualification and ecology can be coordinated determines whether domestic satellite IoT can achieve profitability.
For constellation operators, every day in the past two years has been eroding their first-mover advantage, and the final results are entirely measured by delivery and contracted data.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Xingdong Wuji", author: UniLym, authorized by 36Kr for release.