22 companies have suffered total losses of more than 20 billion yuan, the first-half performance forecasts of listed photovoltaic enterprises have been released, and the photovoltaic industry is truly going through a major tribulation this time.

The entire photovoltaic industry chain is mired in losses, facing supply-demand imbalance, with exports and computing-power-energy synergy jointly exploring a way out.

Insights from Energy Foresight Market Watch show that 26 photovoltaic enterprises have released their first-half performance reports recently. 22 of them are in the red, with total losses ranging from 18.3 billion yuan to 21.4 billion yuan, while only 4 enterprises remain profitable.

The problem does not lie in a single segment of the industry. From silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules, glass to power stations, the entire industrial chain is collectively bleeding. LONGi Green Energy expects a pre-loss of 3.4 billion to 3.8 billion yuan, TCL Zhonghuan expects a pre-loss of 3 billion to 3.3 billion yuan, JA Solar Technology expects a pre-loss of 2.4 billion to 2.9 billion yuan, Hongyuan Green Energy records a loss of 590 million to 690 million yuan, and Shuangliang Energy Conservation posts a loss of 660 million to 805 million yuan. Flat Glass Group expects a pre-loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan in the first half of the year, its first loss since listing, followed by King Glass Group and CSG A, both of which report losses for the first time.

Among the four profitable enterprises, Deye Co., Ltd. nets 2.668 billion to 2.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75% to 79%. First New Material earns 869 million yuan, with a growth of about 75%. Mchang Co., Ltd. gains 295 million to 315 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 200%. None of these three enterprises are on the main photovoltaic industrial chain: Deye manufactures inverters, First New Material produces PV encapsulant films, and Mchang makes diamond wires. While enterprises on the main chain are suffering heavy losses in the price war, these "water sellers" are operating quite well.

One performance report presents two completely different scenarios.

Newly installed capacity plummets by 66% off a cliff, the market suddenly "runs out of momentum"

Data from the National Energy Administration shows that the country's newly connected photovoltaic installed capacity reached 71.768 million kilowatts in the first half of the year, down 66.1% year on year. The newly added installed capacity in May alone plunged 90.66% year on year to only 8.68GW.

The overall base of installed capacity is still expanding. By the end of June, the cumulative national photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1.272 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. But the growth rate of new installations has suddenly hit the brakes hard.

LONGi stated in its performance forecast that the current insufficient new energy consumption, superimposed on the high base of rush-to-install in the same period last year, has led to a phased sharp decline in domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity. The "rush-to-install" in the same period last year pushed the base too high, and after the new electricity price policy was introduced, a large number of projects became unprofitable and were suspended directly.

According to the 2026 new energy mechanism electricity price bidding results in Shandong, the electricity price for photovoltaic projects is 0.261 yuan per kWh. The unified mechanism electricity price in Guizhou is 0.335 yuan per kWh, and the photovoltaic mechanism electricity price in Jilin is set at 0.334 yuan per kWh. At this price level, the internal rate of return of many projects is no longer economically viable.

Once the demand side contracts, the problems on the supply side are exposed more thoroughly. The nominal global photovoltaic production capacity is about 1400GW, while the actual demand is only around 500GW, with the capacity utilization rate less than 40%. The production capacity of silicon wafers, cells and modules all exceeds 1000GW, and the global new installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be only 550 to 600GW, making the supply-demand ratio over 2:1. The operating rate of the polysilicon segment is less than 40%.

This is not a situation that can be explained by simple cyclical fluctuations.

Prices drop by 40%, breaking through the cost line

Hongyuan Green Energy made a detailed calculation in its performance forecast. The average price of dense polysilicon material fell from 52 yuan per kg at the beginning of the year to 32.5 yuan at the end of the reporting period, a drop of 37.5%. The price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers fell from 1.4 yuan per piece to 0.88 yuan, a decline of 37.14%. As of July 20, the polysilicon price index has dropped by about 42.3% compared with January.

Prices have fallen by nearly 40%, while depreciation, labor costs and electricity bills have not decreased at all. The more products they sell, the more losses they incur.

The output of all segments on the manufacturing side is also contracting comprehensively. The polysilicon output reached 538,000 tons, down 9.8% year on year; the silicon wafer output hit 293GW, down 7.3% year on year; the output of solar cells and modules decreased by 21.9% and 35.1% year on year respectively. As output and demand fall in tandem, prices can no longer be maintained.

TCL expects a pre-loss of 3 billion to 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, but the loss has narrowed by 22% to 29% year on year. The company's wording in the forecast is very straightforward: "The imbalance between supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry continues, and the prices of main chain products are adjusting at a low level." But TCL Zhonghuan is taking practical actions: the non-silicon cost of silicon wafers has decreased by more than 13% year on year, the shipment proportion of high-efficiency products such as BC cells and half-cut cells exceeds 15%, and the overseas shipment of modules has increased by 400% year on year. The reduction of losses relies on cost reduction and product structure adjustment, rather than waiting for the market to recover.

A more troublesome issue is asset impairment. Flat Glass Group has made impairment provisions for the cold-repaired glass furnaces and part of its photovoltaic glass inventory. Shuangliang Energy Conservation has made inventory depreciation provisions for photovoltaic-related inventory. The photovoltaic segment of Tongda Co., Ltd. has also made large inventory depreciation provisions.

The inventory depreciation provision means that the enterprise itself admits that the raw materials and products in hand are no longer worth the original purchase price according to the current market price. This amount is not included in operating losses, but will still be deducted from profits.

The inverter segment is the only profitable area left

Amid the wave of losses, four enterprises remain profitable: Deye Co., Ltd., First New Material, Ginlong Technologies, and Mchang Co., Ltd.

The performance of Deye Co., Ltd. is particularly eye-catching. In the first quarter, it achieved operating revenue of 4.459 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.8%, and net profit of 1.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.37%. The shipment of energy storage inverters doubled year on year, the shipment of battery packs increased by about 260%, the overall gross profit margin of the company reached 41.45%, and the cash reserve on the book hit 5.615 billion yuan.

Deye and Ginlong both released their performance forecasts at the same time: Deye expects a year-on-year growth of 75% to 79% in net profit, while Ginlong expects a year-on-year decline of 23.61% to 31.91% in net profit. Although both are profitable and engaged in the same business, their results are vastly different. The key lies in the proportion of overseas market share: Deye has a deeper layout in the overseas energy storage market, while Ginlong is more affected by exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in an exchange loss of about 47.94 million yuan on its books.

First New Material produces PV encapsulant films, and Mchang manufactures diamond wires. They are the "water sellers" in the photovoltaic industry, not gold diggers. The logic is very simple: no matter how low the module price falls, as long as there are still people installing photovoltaic systems, there will be demand for encapsulant films, diamond wires and inverters. The competitive landscape in these segments is far less crowded than that of the main industrial chain.

But the other side of the story is that how long the good days for the inverter segment can last depends on the bottom line of installed capacity demand. If the installed capacity continues to decline, the business of these "water sellers" will also shrink. At least in this semi-annual report season, the inverter segment is the only promising direction in the photovoltaic industry.

Exports and computing-power-energy synergy are two necessary paths for the industry

Exports are one of the few bright spots in the first half of the year. From January to April 2026, China's total export volume of photovoltaic products increased by about 43% year on year. In April alone, the export volume of modules to the Southeast Asian market increased by 267% year on year. The total export value of photovoltaic products in the first half of the year was about 17.183 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. Although the export volume of modules decreased by 2.5%, the export value rose against the trend by 14% — this is the first time that the export value of modules has achieved positive growth since the in-depth adjustment of the industry in the second half of 2023.

Although the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was cancelled on April 1, overseas demand remains strong. Europe is still the core market, and the growth in emerging markets such as Africa, Indonesia and India is also very significant. The growth of exports has not yet filled the gap in the domestic market, but it at least provides a breathing space for the industry.

Another notable change is "computing-power-energy synergy". In March 2026, computing-power-energy synergy was written into the *Government Work Report* for the first time. In May, four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the *Action Plan for Promoting the Two-Way Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy*. The National Data Administration clearly required that the proportion of green power used in new computing facilities in the eight national hub nodes of the "East Data, West Computing" project must reach more than 80%. Sichuan has recently released policies for computing power network construction, where computing-power-energy integration projects can obtain additional new energy indicators, and the proportion of surplus power connected to the grid is relaxed to 20%.

The power demand brought by AI and data centers is certain. Combining photovoltaic power generation with computing power centers can not only solve the problem of green power consumption, but also create stable new demand. According to the judgment of the vice president of Sungrow Power, this will be the core incremental market with the fastest growth rate in the industry in the next five years.

However, how much installed capacity demand can be released by computing-power-energy synergy depends on the implementation speed of policies and the construction pace of computing power infrastructure. 2026 is the first year of this development, and large-scale growth still takes time.

The 22 enterprises have suffered total losses of 20 billion yuan, a figure that reflects the superimposed pressure of overcapacity, price collapse and shrinking demand. Some enterprises are reducing losses, some are facing expanding losses, and some are making profits in the narrow gap — a differentiated pattern has taken shape.

A number of institutions judge that 2026 will be the bottoming year of this cycle, and marginal recovery is expected in 2027. Huatai Securities believes that the year-on-year pressure on the photovoltaic demand side will ease in the second half of 2026, and mandatory national standard measures will accelerate the clearance of the supply side in 2027. The China Electricity Council predicts that the installed capacity of solar power generation will exceed that of coal-fired power for the first time this year.

But no one knows the exact answer where the bottom is. The industry is undergoing a reshuffle in the most painful way. The enterprises that survive may not be the strongest, but they are definitely the most resilient.