The stock market has entered a new phase: after the AI boom, capital is in search of the next round of certainty
Figure 1
Over the past two years, the global capital market has experienced a super bull market driven by artificial intelligence.
From NVIDIA to cloud computing, from chips to data centers, AI has become the most powerful growth narrative in the capital market. Capital has been pouring into tech assets, as investors believe artificial intelligence will reshape the global industrial landscape.
But as we enter 2026, subtle shifts are taking place in the market.
The upward trend is not over, but the investment logic is changing.
In the past, the market focused on: "Who has the AI story?"
Now the market is starting to ask: "Who can truly generate profits through AI?"
Capital is shifting from chasing the future to validating real-world performance.
The AI Wave Enters Its Second Half, As Capital Begins to Recalculate Value
Over the past few years, the AI industry chain has undergone a period of rapid expansion.
The biggest beneficiaries have been the infrastructure segment:
Chips, servers, data centers, and cloud computing enterprises have become highly sought after by capital.
The reason is simple: AI development requires computing power, and the demand for computing power has brought enormous business opportunities.
But problems have also emerged alongside this growth.
As more and more enterprises invest huge sums of money to build AI infrastructure, the market has begun to ponder:
When will these investments translate into real, tangible revenue?
Can corporate profitability match the current valuations?
This has become a key driver of the current volatility in tech stocks.
The unwritten rule of capital markets is that when an industry is in a high-speed growth phase, capital is willing to place bets in advance. But when valuations reach a certain level, the market shifts its focus from growth speed to the quality of profitability.
AI will not come to an end, but the era where "any stock related to AI automatically rises" is fading away.
The enterprises that will truly benefit in the future are not necessarily the companies with the most computing power, but those that can leverage AI to improve efficiency and create tangible business value.
Figure 2
Global Stock Markets Are Entering a Structural Bull Market, As Capital Searches for New Directions
Over the past few years, the rise of the US stock market has been heavily dependent on a handful of tech giants.
These companies have reaped huge capital premiums riding the AI wave, but the increasing market concentration also means risks are accumulating.
As investors begin to reassess the future growth potential of tech giants, capital will start to seek out new opportunities.
This means clear differentiation may emerge in the market going forward:
Some companies will continue to benefit from the dividends of the tech revolution;
While other enterprises that lack profitability and rely solely on conceptual hype will gradually be eliminated by the market.
At the same time, the global industrial chain is undergoing profound changes.
Fields such as intelligent manufacturing, new energy technology upgrading, robotics, high-end equipment, and industrial software are likely to become key areas of capital focus in the next stage.
The capital market will never lack hot topics, but long-term capital ultimately pursues sustainable industrial trends and solid corporate competitiveness.
The Core of Future Investment Is No Longer Chasing Fads, But Seeking Certainty
Every round of market rally follows a similar pattern.
In the early stage, capital chases new technologies;
In the mid stage, the entire industry chain expands comprehensively;
In the later stage, the market begins to filter out the real winners.
The AI era will be no exception.
In the coming years, the investment logic is likely to shift from "looking for the next hot concept" to identifying three types of enterprises:
First, enterprises with core technological moats;
Second, enterprises capable of generating sustained cash flow;
Third, enterprises that can translate technology into tangible business value.
What the market ultimately rewards has never been the most hyped story, but the strongest ability to deliver on promises.
The process of AI transforming the world has only just begun, but the capital market has already entered a new phase.
From chasing imagination to validating real value.
This could be the biggest change in global stock markets over the next few years.
The views expressed in this article represent the author's personal opinions only. The 36Kr platform merely provides an information storage service. For reprint permissions, please contact the original author. Author: @Second Cycle
