CXMT starts subscription: a capital carnival under a market value of 579.2 billion

462.85x — The valid intended subscription shares from offline investors of Changxin Technology, which is 462 times the initial offline issuance volume before the strategic placement clawback.

On July 16, 2026, Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Changxin Technology") launched online and offline subscriptions at an issue price of 8.66 yuan. It is expected to raise 57.919 billion yuan before over-allotment, corresponding to a post-issuance market value of 579.188 billion yuan.

July 16 is the subscription date rather than the listing date, but before entering the secondary market, the sentiment surrounding Changxin Technology has already formed: 285 offline investors and 10,907 placement objects participated in valid quotations, and 30 institutions entered strategic placement; calculated based on 2025 profits, the P/E ratio before non-recurring items reached 308.92x.

The market's frenzied expectations go far beyond that. According to a report by *Caijing*, some institutions estimate that based on a 2026 attributable net profit of 150 billion to 200 billion yuan and a 20x P/E ratio, Changxin Technology's market value after listing is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, and some institutions even give valuations above 4 trillion yuan. This extrapolated profit far exceeds the company's performance forecast of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan for the first half of the year.

For this subscription, public market calculations suggest that the online winning rate may reach 0.3% to 0.7%; if the post-listing market value reaches 3 trillion yuan, the corresponding share price will be about 44.86 yuan, and the book profit for one lot (500 shares, cost 4,330 yuan) will be about 18,100 yuan.

A large number of investors are also worried about its "drainage effect" on the secondary market after listing. When asked about position suggestions after Changxin's listing, a quantitative practitioner said, "Consider appropriately reducing holdings in the STAR Market."

When domestic substitution, AI demand, and memory price increases are all compressed into a single stock, how high a price is the market willing to pay for these expectations, and who will benefit from it?

01 Crowded Buyers

Founded in 2016, Changxin Technology mainly engages in DRAM under the IDM model. According to Omdia's statistics, its global market share of DRAM sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 7.67%, ranking first in China and fourth in the world. This makes it a rare memory IDM target in the A-share market.

The explosive growth of profits has reinforced this sentiment. In the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue reached 50.8 billion yuan, and its attributable net profit was 24.762 billion yuan, turning around losses year-on-year; it is expected that the attributable net profit in the first half of the year will reach 50 billion to 57 billion yuan.

Calculated based on 2025 profits before non-recurring items, Changxin Technology's post-issuance diluted P/E ratio is 308.92x, while the average static P/E ratio of its industry in the most recent month is only 76.32x, and the average static P/E ratio of six comparable companies after non-recurring items is 134.62x.

An investor told Tencent Technology, The core logic supporting this extremely high valuation is the scarcity premium of domestic substitution, rather than the temporary profits at the top of the cycle. He believes that while the 300+ P/E ratio certainly includes profits at the cyclical peak, the market values more the strategic scarcity of its DRAM IDM, as well as the "foundation of domestic substitution" and the "long-term imagination space for domestic HBM driven by AI", which cannot be explained solely by cyclical factors.

From the results of offline inquiry, 10,907 placement objects managed by 285 investors formed valid quotations, with the valid intended subscription volume reaching 1,238.222 billion shares, representing a subscription multiple of 462.85x.

The strategic placement list is crowded. A total of 30 institutions and products were allocated 1.667 billion shares, amounting to about 14.437 billion yuan, accounting for 24.93% of the initial issuance volume. The list includes social security funds, pension funds, the second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, as well as sponsors, executive and employee plans, and industrial capital. Upstream players include Montage Technology and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, while downstream players include NIO, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Alibaba Cloud. This group of buyers fully covers the capital side, equipment and materials side, and end application side.

02 Who Is Benefiting

Before issuance, Changxin Technology's original shareholders Qinghui Jidian held 21.67%, Changxin Integration held 11.71%, the second phase of the National IC Fund held 8.73%, and the Hefei state-owned capital system held a total of about 36.79% through full penetration.

Calculated at the issue price of 8.66 yuan, the book value of the shares held by Qinghui Jidian is about 112.959 billion yuan, that of Changxin Integration is about 61.034 billion yuan, and that of the second phase of the National IC Fund is about 45.518 billion yuan. Among industrial shareholders, the Alibaba system holds a total of about 25.938 billion yuan, GigaDevice about 9.402 billion yuan, and Tencent's holdings through Beijing Fengyi correspond to about 7.819 billion yuan.

According to calculations in the research report of Guolian Minsheng Securities, if Changxin Technology's market value after listing reaches 3 trillion yuan, the appreciation gain from the approximately 1.714% of shares held by China Construction Bank through entities such as CCB Investment will reach 410 billion yuan, accounting for about 12.09% of its 2025 attributable net profit.

The company's management also holds a considerable number of shares. The company's directors, executives, core technical personnel, and their close relatives indirectly hold a total of about 2.034 billion shares, which is about 17.618 billion yuan at the issue price; Chairman Zhu Yiming indirectly holds about 1.59 billion shares, corresponding to about 13.772 billion yuan.

However, this issuance consists entirely of new shares, and no original shareholders have publicly sold their shares, so the above figures cannot be equated with realized gains. Most management members hold shares indirectly through shareholding platforms, which are locked up for 36 months. Zhu Yiming promises not to transfer the shares he holds for the first ten years after listing. The final realized amount still depends on the share price after the lock-up period.

The second tier of beneficiaries comes from the industrial chain. Changxin Technology is expected to raise a total of 57.919 billion yuan. For equipment, materials, packaging and testing, and module enterprises, this means new capital expenditure and order expectations.

Some institutions believe that upstream links such as etching, thin film deposition, and photoresist, which are tied to Changxin's capacity expansion needs, have enhanced performance certainty, and their valuations may move closer to overseas leaders. Post-cyclical sectors such as memory modules and packaging and testing will also benefit from demand transmission, forming a "chain revaluation".

The third layer of impact of market sentiment falls on the STAR Market. Changxin Technology has a pre-non-recurring items P/E ratio of 308.92x and a post-issuance P/B ratio of 5.06x. A fund manager believes that in the short term, the 57.919 billion yuan issuance and subsequent transactions may form a liquidity pulse; in the long term, the STAR Market will add a memory IDM company with a market value of nearly 580 billion yuan.

Frenzy also has its fundamental basis. It is widely believed that the industry's prosperity will be relatively optimistic in 2027 and 2028: AI-driven demand will grow exponentially, while capacity expansion on the supply side will lag behind.

This is because current AI applications are still in their early stages, and global data volume will see a structural growth of hundreds to thousands of times in the future, continuously driving up memory demand; after going through loss-making cycles, memory manufacturers are cautious about capital expenditure, and building new capacity takes 18 to 24 months, making it impossible to effectively respond to the demand tsunami in the short term.

However, the aforementioned fund manager told Tencent Technology that Changxin Technology still has a technology gap of one to two generations with international leaders, its HBM business started late, its competitiveness in the high-end market is limited in the short term, and its current profits still rely heavily on the supply-demand gap of general-purpose DRAM. The market's confidence in its subsequent development mainly comes from the demand scale of the Chinese market, the continuous support from the National IC Fund and local state-owned assets, and the fact that the company has listed HBM as a strategic priority and is trying to directly promote the R&D of new-generation products. However, these conditions also indirectly indicate that Changxin Technology is still in the stage of technological catch-up.

He believes that three indicators need to be continuously observed after listing: whether the technology generation gap between the company and international leaders is narrowing, whether the fundraising projects can complete capacity ramp-up as planned, and whether the localization rate of equipment and materials can continue to increase.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Tencent Technology", author: Worth Paying Attention To, published with authorization from 36Kr.