The largest unlock wave in history

Some rejoice, others grieve.

Recently, a cohort of high-profile Hong Kong-listed companies has seen their restricted shares lifted from lock-up periods, yet the market's reactions have been starkly different—

Zhipu surged against the market trend on its lock-up expiry day, with its market capitalization jumping by HK$100 billion in a single day; Days Intelligent Micro saw a modest 5% rise with little fanfare. Meanwhile, MiniMax, another AI-track firm, retreated after a sharp rally, and Yunzhisheng nearly halved in value on the first day of its lock-up expiry.

Juxtaposing these outcomes leaves observers with mixed feelings.

This is perhaps the most authentic portrayal of this year's trillion-dollar lock-up expiry wave in the Hong Kong stock market. Calculations from multiple institutions estimate that the total value of unlocked shares in Hong Kong's market will reach HK$1.7 trillion in 2026. July is just the beginning, and September will bring the peak—with a single-month unlocked market value of HK$530 billion, accounting for one-third of the annual total, an extremely rare event in Hong Kong stock market history.

After the sharp rallies, the real test has arrived. And divergence has become the most thought-provoking element of this tide.

Facing the Lock-Up Expiry Test Head-On: Some Rejoice, Others Grieve

Zhipu has broken the curse that "lock-up expiry spells a sharp drop."

Back in January this year, Zhipu listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at an issue price of HK$116.2, bearing the title of the "world's first large model stock." On its first trading day, it posted a market capitalization of HK$550 billion, a performance that was hardly spectacular.

But over the subsequent six months, it traced the steepest growth curve of the AI era—taking five months to climb from HK$500 billion to HK$5 trillion, and only one month to surge past HK$1 trillion. On June 22, Zhipu opened with a rally of over 40%, with its market value briefly exceeding HK$1.3 trillion, marking a more than 20-fold increase from its first listing day.

As the lock-up expiry approached, Zhipu's share price began to fluctuate violently. On July 8, approximately 25.6 million shares held by cornerstone investors were released from lock-up, accounting for 6% of the total share capital, with an unlocked market value exceeding HK$400 billion. But before the expiry, nearly 70% of cornerstone shareholders explicitly stated their intention to hold their shares without selling, removing most of the market's biggest fear of selling pressure in advance.

That day, Zhipu opened nearly 3% lower and once plunged by around 10%. But buying interest quickly flooded in, pushing the share price upward, rising nearly 15% during the trading day, and closing firmly at HK$1800. Its single-day market value surged by HK$100 billion, with more than ten cornerstone investors behind it seeing paper profits exceeding 13 times.

A HK$100 billion single-day market value rally is virtually unprecedented in the history of Hong Kong stock lock-up expiries.

The "two giants of large models" in the Hong Kong market have taken different paths. One day after Zhipu, MiniMax saw its first large-scale lock-up expiry on July 9—with the overlapping unlock of cornerstone shares and Pre-IPO restricted shares from early investors, accounting for about 50% of total share capital, making it the most structurally complex and largest-scale participant in this wave of unlocks.

The night before the expiry, over 80% of cornerstone shareholders stated their commitment to long-term holding, and the founding team voluntarily extended their lock-up period by 12 months, sending the share price up more than 20% at one point during the trading day. But on the actual expiry day, the stock still closed lower.

At the same time, founder Yan Junjie released an all-staff internal letter announcing that he would no longer draw any salary from the company until the day the firm achieves AGI. "The market will fluctuate, there will be noise from the outside, but the direction forward will not change." The implication of this statement is self-evident.

Biren Technology has also drawn widespread attention. On January 2 this year, Biren Technology listed in Hong Kong, earning the title of "Hong Kong's first GPU stock," and became the company with the highest fundraising amount since the introduction of Chapter 18C rules. Within half a year, its market value peaked at HK$170 billion—until July 2, when cornerstone investors' shares were unlocked, triggering volatility on that day.

However, even after the sharp drop on the lock-up expiry day, MiniMax and Biren Technology still maintain significant gains from their issue prices, with cornerstone investors still sitting on substantial paper profits.

Unlike the six-month cornerstone lock-up periods of Zhipu and MiniMax, Yunzhisheng, known as "Hong Kong's first AGI stock," had its cornerstone investors commit to a 12-month lock-up period at the time of listing. Shortly after the company completed one year of listing, the restricted shares from cornerstone investors, early financial investors, and controlling shareholders were all released simultaneously. The stock dropped by over 40% during the trading day, its price fell well below the issue price, and its market value is now a tiny fraction of its peak level.

The experience of Yaojie Ankang has been even more dramatic. Previously, the company's share price rallied more than 50 times, pushing its market value past HK$250 billion, but it could not hold up once the lock-up valve was opened—on expiry day, it plummeted by over 60%, with its market value shrinking to less than HK$5 billion. The contrast between before and after is like a rollercoaster ride.

Looking further out, the collapses have been even more severe in the unnoticed corners of the market.

From the Listing Frenzy to the Lock-Up Expiry Wave: The State of Market Liquidity

This entire scene traces back to last year's massive wave of companies seeking listings in Hong Kong.

In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw a bumper IPO year—119 companies listed, raising a total of HK$286.9 billion, exceeding the sum of the previous three years, and securing Hong Kong the title of the world's top market for new share fundraising.

The flip side of this IPO boom is the concentrated expiry of batches of restricted shares.

Under Hong Kong stock market rules, the lock-up period for cornerstone investors is typically 6 months, while controlling shareholders and major shareholders usually face 6 to 12 months of restrictions. This means that for the technology and biotech companies that listed densely in 2025, the lock-up periods for their cornerstone and Pre-IPO shareholders will consecutively expire in 2026.

An unprecedented wave of lock-up expiries is now upon us.

Combining estimates from institutions including SPDB International and Wind, the total value of shares to be unlocked in the Hong Kong market in 2026 will reach HK$1.55 trillion to HK$1.7 trillion, nearly tripling from the roughly HK$600 billion in 2025 and hitting an all-time record high.

These shares are heavily concentrated in three sectors: information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare, accounting for over 60% of the total. For some companies, the unlocked shares will make up more than 50% of their total share capital, nearly doubling their tradable share supply.

In terms of timing, July is the peak month for cornerstone investor lock-up expiries, with a monthly scale exceeding HK$200 billion. Nearly 30 companies including Mingmang Busy, GigaDevice, Livzon Pharma, and Jifeng Medical will see their shares unlocked this month, with targets clustered in hot tracks such as AI large models, GPUs, storage, and high-end manufacturing.

An even greater test lies in September. SPDB International estimates that the single-month unlocked market value in September will hit HK$530 billion, accounting for roughly one-third of the annual total—this figure even exceeds the total IPO fundraising amount for the entire year of 2025. The vast majority of this comes from a large-scale unlock by the controlling shareholder of Zijin Gold International.

With such a massive volume of shares about to become tradable, it is hard not to feel a sense of anxiety. After all, multiple stocks have already suffered flash crashes on their lock-up expiry days, with no shortage of cases where single-day drops exceeded 20%, 30%, or even reached 50%.

While lock-up expiry does not equal immediate selling, emotional volatility often arrives first. SPDB International conducted a statistical analysis covering 766 new stocks with lock-up periods listed between 2018 and 2025, and the results show that the three months before and after restricted share unlocks are the period of greatest downward pressure on share prices, with nearly 60% of companies underperforming the Hang Seng Index.

"The current situation is significantly different," a Hong Kong-based investment banking associate observed. Historically, stampedes of selling tend to occur when the market is depressed and liquidity is scarce. If the market maintains upward expectations over the next three to six months, unlocking shareholders will be more inclined to reduce their holdings in batches rather than selling all at once.

But no one can precisely predict market sentiment, and liquidity remains an unavoidable challenge for the Hong Kong stock market.

Returning to Rationality: How Much Is a Company Actually Worth?

While the downward trend from lock-up expiries spreads on one side, the queue of companies heading to Hong Kong for listings remains long.

Since the start of this year, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen a constant stream of listing ceremonies that feel almost surreal. This week alone, 15 new companies including Momenta, Luxshare Precision, Luoshi Robotics, Jinghe Integration, and Econtrol Smart Driving made their debuts, even staging a memorable scene where seven IPOs rang their listing bells on the same day.

But for all the fanfare, subtle shifts have emerged in the market mood for the second half of the year.

The most intuitive sign is the growing number of stocks falling below their issue price on the first trading day. Among the latest batch of newly listed companies, Pu Yuan Jing Dian dropped more than 30% on its debut, and Tong Ren Tang Elderly Care fell nearly 40% below its issue price, pouring a bucket of cold water on the Hong Kong market's hot streak this year.

In sharp contrast, the queue outside the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's doors is still lengthening. Currently, listing applications including those submitted under confidential procedures have exceeded 500, hitting a historical high. The eagerness of companies to complete their IPOs is palpable.

"Can the Hong Kong stock market really absorb all this?" An investment banking associate I know has grown cautious.

Past experience repeatedly reminds us that the IPO frenzy does not guarantee sufficient liquidity. The real test often comes at the critical moment when restricted shares are unlocked and a large volume of shares hits the market—whether the market is still willing to pay attention and absorb the supply.

And the mirror of liquidity reflects not just the market's attitude, but the ultimate test of a company's fundamental value. Without solid fundamentals as support, even the most compelling narrative cannot withstand the selling pressure of real money.

Right now, the trillion-dollar lock-up wave is gradually unfolding. For some companies, this is a harsh moment of valuation normalization; for others, it may be a turning point where negative factors are fully priced in.

VC/PE firms are watching all this unfold. Behind this year's cohort of unlocking companies are numerous institutional investors who witnessed the listing ceremonies and cheers when their portfolio firms went public, with paper returns that once looked dazzlingly attractive.

But once entering the lock-up expiry window, paper profits are ultimately just numbers. The real practical test is at what price and how many shares they can actually exit. Only by converting their holdings into cash can they complete the full investment cycle.

IPO sets the price, lock-up expiry verifies it—when the tide recedes, who has been swimming naked will quietly become clear.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Pedaily" (ID: pedaily2012), written by Zhou Jiali, and republished with authorization from 36Kr.