Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses is approaching: over 40 institutions including Ant Group and JD.com are vying for them, with thresholds comparable to those of banks

In 2026, Hong Kong is emerging as the center of a quiet strategic game. The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance came into effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a licensing regime for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers. More than 40 institutions, including Ant International, Ant Digital Technologies, JD Coin & Chain Technology, Yuen Coin Innovation, and Standard Chartered, are queuing up to apply for licenses or explore the market, with the first batch of licenses expected to be issued in early 2026 (Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority / CLSA, 2026).

Many people regard stablecoins as "a type of cryptocurrency", but the essence of this licensing race goes far beyond the business of issuing digital tokens. What is at stake is the right to speak in cross-border settlements in the digital era, and even "monetary sovereignty". This seemingly unremarkable digital token deserves serious understanding from ordinary people.

First, Understand: How Stablecoins Generate Profits

Let's start with a basic explanation. A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies (such as the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar) with relatively stable prices, serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the blockchain. Its core profitability comes from the "reserve spread": when users exchange fiat currency for stablecoins, issuers invest these funds in low-risk, highly liquid assets such as US Treasury bonds to earn interest, and typically do not distribute this interest to stablecoin holders. This difference constitutes their profit.

How large is this business? The global market capitalization of stablecoins has soared from less than $20 billion in 2019 to over $250 billion in early 2025. Taking the largest stablecoin USDT as an example, its issuer Tether holds more than $100 billion in US Treasury bonds, with a net profit of $13 billion in 2024 (Source: China Europe International Business School / Public Reports, 2025). Stablecoins have already become a staggering-scale business in digital finance.

A Critical Question: Why Do US Dollar Stablecoins Account for 90% of the Market

This reveals the core of this hidden battle: US dollar stablecoins occupy more than 90% of the global stablecoin market share (Source: China Europe International Business School, 2025). This means that in the rapidly expanding world of digital payments and cross-border settlements, the dominant position of the US dollar has not been weakened; instead, it has been further strengthened and extended through stablecoins.

For a major trading nation, this is an issue that must be faced squarely: if future cross-border settlements increasingly run on the track of "US dollar stablecoins", monetary sovereignty and settlement security may be further locked into the US dollar system. This is the deep-seated motivation behind Hong Kong's strategic move.

Hong Kong's Strategy: Betting on Offshore Renminbi

Hong Kong regards stablecoins as a key pillar of its digital asset strategy, focusing on promoting three categories: Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, offshore renminbi (CNH) stablecoins, and others. The most strategically significant one is the offshore renminbi stablecoin, which is regarded as a "digitalized offshore renminbi". It helps Chinese-funded enterprises improve capital turnover efficiency in cross-border trade and energy settlements, and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system (Source: China Europe International Business School, 2025).

There are already pioneers. Conflux has taken the lead in launching a stablecoin project in Hong Kong that is 1:1 pegged to the offshore renminbi, mainly targeting trade settlements and cross-border payments along the Belt and Road Initiative, making Hong Kong the world's first jurisdiction to conduct large-scale tests on offshore renminbi stablecoins (Source: China Europe International Business School, 2025). This tiny token carries an exploration for the renminbi to go global in the digital era.

Key Data: Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance took effect on August 1, 2025, with licensing requirements including a paid-in capital of no less than HK$25 million and 100% highly liquid reserves. The global stablecoin market capitalization exceeded $250 billion in early 2025, with US dollar stablecoins accounting for more than 90%. The first batch of licenses is expected to be issued in early 2026, with only a few available in the initial stage (Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority / China Europe International Business School, 2025-2026).

Why Are the Licensing Thresholds Comparable to Those of Banks

It is worth noting that Hong Kong's regulatory attitude is quite prudent. The licensing thresholds are not low: a paid-in capital of no less than HK$25 million, 100% highly liquid reserves. Unlicensed issuance or false publicity can lead to a maximum fine of HK$10 million and 7 years of imprisonment. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has repeatedly emphasized "strictly prohibiting speculation" and clarified that in the initial stage, "at most only a few licenses will be approved" (Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2026).

The following is a reasoning for readers' reference. This strict regulation, "comparable to that of banks", precisely shows that Hong Kong is not aiming for a crypto carnival, but to bring stablecoins into the compliant financial system, making them closer to "an extension of digital fiat currency". This also means that the institutions that can eventually obtain licenses are most likely leading entities with real cross-border scenarios, the ability to withstand compliance costs, and risk control capabilities, rather than concept players chasing trends. For ordinary investors, they need to be extremely cautious when chasing so-called "stablecoin concept stocks", as regulatory and market cooling often comes faster than the hype.

A Takeaway Framework · Three Core Elements of Stablecoins (Reserve × Scenario × Sovereignty): To judge the value and ambition of a stablecoin, look at three points: ① Whether the reserve assets are safe and sufficient (determines its credit bottom line); ② Whether there are real cross-border payment and settlement scenarios (determines whether it can survive); ③ Which currency it is pegged to (determines whose monetary sovereignty it serves). US dollar stablecoins win in scenarios and first-mover advantage, while all the significance and imagination space of offshore renminbi stablecoins rest on the third point.

What Does This Have to Do With You

The first layer involves enterprises engaged in cross-border trade, cross-border e-commerce, and international payments. Stablecoins can significantly improve the efficiency of cross-border capital turnover and reduce settlement costs. If offshore renminbi stablecoins mature, they can also reduce exchange rate risks and reliance on a single currency.

The second layer includes practitioners and investors in finance, payments, and the blockchain industry. Stablecoins and RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization) are opening up new tracks, but licenses are scarce, thresholds are extremely high, and regulation is prudent. Opportunities belong to the few with real scenarios and compliance capabilities, not concept speculators.

The third layer covers all those who pay attention to renminbi internationalization and the global monetary landscape. As the US dollar extends its hegemony through stablecoins, how far a digital token pegged to the renminbi can go is related to China's settlement security and right to speak in the era of digital finance.

This hidden battle for "digital currency sovereignty" has just begun. US dollar stablecoins have seized the first opportunity, while offshore renminbi stablecoins are quietly paving the way in Hong Kong. It may not immediately change the landscape, but the very act of taking this step means that on the new chessboard of digital currency, China does not want to be absent. What do you think about this? Feel free to share your views in the comment section.

This article is for information sharing and trend analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, investment analysis opinion, or transaction invitation. The data in the article comes from named sources such as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, China Europe International Business School, and CLSA, along with their corresponding dates. All data shall be subject to the original sources. Stablecoins and virtual assets have high volatility and high risks. The content marked as "reasoning" in the text is a logical deduction based on public information and does not represent the official position. The market has risks, and decisions should be made with caution.

This article is from the WeChat public account "BT Finance" (ID: btcjv1), authored by BT Finance, and published with authorization from 36Kr.