In July, Shanghai saw a surge in land supply, with transaction volume expected to exceed 20 billion yuan.

The land auction market in the first half of the year generally showed a trend of "stable at first and then heating up", with land auctions in core cities seeing a notable uptick from the end of May to June.

Entering July, 22 major cities have launched a total of 98 residential-related land plots with a total starting transfer price of 69.2 billion yuan. Market supply is sufficient, while structural differentiation among cities and land plots is prominent.

Beijing and Shanghai have concentrated their land supply. On July 28, a riverside plot within the Inner Ring Road of Yangpu District in Shanghai is only about 300 meters away from the Huangpu River, with a starting price reaching 11.868 billion yuan, which is likely to become a highlight of July's land auction market. On July 30, Beijing released 3 land plots in a single day, with a total starting price of 6.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative starting price for July has reached 10.94 billion yuan.

Cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an, and Guangzhou have maintained a moderate scale of land supply.

Judging from the currently released land plots, it is expected that the popularity of July's land auctions will moderately decline from the high level in June, while investment expectations will continue to improve steadily.

01

According to incomplete statistics, as of June 30, 2026, the 22 major cities are projected to launch 98 residential-related land plots in July, with a total starting transfer price of 69.2 billion yuan.

The tier gap among cities is distinct, among which the total price of 3 residential land plots in a single batch in Shanghai leads by a large margin. According to the 6th residential land supply announcement of Shanghai, 3 residential plots located in Xuhui, Yangpu, and Fengxian have been listed, with a total starting transfer price of 17.872 billion yuan.

Among them, the residential plot in Yangpu District has the highest starting price, reaching 11.868 billion yuan, which consists of three sub-plots: the 03A1-05 residential plot has a floor area ratio of 2.39, the 03A2-02 residential plot has a floor area ratio of 2.3, and the 03A2-01 commercial plot has a floor area ratio of 1.1.

The total permitted floor area is approximately 156,000 square meters, of which the residential floor area is 145,000 square meters, with an average starting floor price of about 80,000 yuan per square meter. The transfer requires that all supporting facilities including hotels, wet markets, and commercial spaces be fully held by the developer.

The plot is located in the core riverside area within the Inner Ring Road of Yangpu, only about 300 meters away from the Huangpu River, with multiple headquarters of leading enterprises gathered around. The average price of high-end new residential projects in the surrounding area is about 160,000 to 180,000 yuan per square meter.

The Xuhui plot is also a combined plot, adjacent to Guilin Park, with 2 historical buildings on the site, one of which is the former Guan Sheng Yuan Food General Factory, where the famous White Rabbit Creamy Candy was once produced. Lu Aifei, Deputy Director of the Xuhui District Planning and Natural Resources Bureau, stated in an interview with the media that after multiple rounds of planning refinement, the project has struck a balance between inheriting historical context and upgrading urban functions, finally forming a mixed layout of "residence + hotel" to inject new vitality into the mature area between the Inner and Outer Ring Roads. Notably, there has been no new residential land supply in this area since the development of Xinyao Zhongcheng and Poly Tianyue in recent years. The launch of this combined plot is a key step for Xuhui District to optimize urban space and supplement the functions of mature areas.

As for the plot in Fengxian New City, it is a low-density plot with a floor area ratio of only 1.05.

Following Shanghai, cities including Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Fuzhou have a monthly total transfer amount exceeding 3 billion yuan, forming the second tier of land supply.

Among them, Beijing will launch 5 land plots on July 22, 28, and 30, with 3 plots released on the 30th and 1 plot each on the other two days. The total starting price of the 3 plots on July 30 is 6.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative starting price of the 5 plots reaches 10.94 billion yuan.

These 5 plots are located in Daxing, Chaoyang, Shunyi, Mentougou, and Changping respectively. The plot in Jiuxianqiao, Chaoyang, is an old urban reconstruction plot with a starting floor price of 64,000 yuan per square meter, showing relatively high market popularity.

Cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an, and Guangzhou maintain a moderate scale of land supply, belonging to the third tier, while other cities have relatively smaller land launch volumes.

02

The land auction market in the just-concluded first half of 2026 generally showed a trend of "stable at first and then heating up", with land auctions in core cities seeing a notable uptick from the end of May to June.

From the perspective of key monitored cities, no city has recorded a land transaction amount exceeding 100 billion yuan in the first half of the year. The land transaction amounts of relatively high-popularity cities Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 51.1 billion yuan, 47 billion yuan, and 38.7 billion yuan respectively. The total transaction amount of the top 3 cities reaches 136.7 billion yuan, accounting for 21% of the national total land transaction amount, a decrease of 14 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The number of high-quality investment opportunities in core cities has decreased compared with the same period in 2025, which is one of the objective reasons for the rising popularity of the land auction market since the second quarter.

In terms of market popularity, there have been 88 residential-related land plots with a total transaction value exceeding 1 billion yuan since 2026, of which 42 were sold at a premium, with a premium transaction ratio reaching 48%. Most of these high-value, high-premium plots were concentrated in the second quarter, with 37 transactions. A typical example is Shenzhen's land auctions since June, where the premium rates of three residential plots in Yuehai, Qianhai, and Bao'an Central are 151%, 114%, and 99% respectively, with transaction floor prices all exceeding 80,000 yuan per square meter. These plots integrating high-end industries, mature supporting facilities, and excellent ecological environment will still attract fierce competition from leading enterprises.

Driven by multiple hot plots, the average premium rate of first-tier cities in the first half of 2026 reached 16.3%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, making it the only city tier that recorded a year-on-year increase.

In addition, it is worth noting that in third- and fourth-tier cities, some high-quality plots with clear development prospects still maintain high market popularity, typically represented by cities such as Jinhua, Yiwu, Wenzhou, and Zhuhai. The logic supporting the popularity of these plots is clearly differentiated: some plots rely on the implementation of industry-city integration plans with clear long-term development expectations; some are repurchased resettlement plots with clear revenue boundaries that can effectively lock in project profit margins; other plots with differentiated products that fit local industrial characteristics and residential demand also achieve high-premium transfers.

The most representative example is the vertical building product in Yiwu, where the property form of "commercial on the lower floors and residential on the upper floors" highly matches Yiwu's trade-dominated economic model and the production and residential needs of local business operators. Taking a residential-related plot in Jiangdong Subdistrict, Yiwu with a height limit of 27 meters as an example, this plot is suitable for developing vertical building products. The bidding process attracted 4 local real estate enterprises including Yiwu Tonghui Real Estate and Yiwu Zhongtuo Real Estate. After 63 rounds of fierce bidding, it was finally acquired by Yiwu Tonghui Real Estate, with a premium rate as high as 75% and a transaction floor price of about 17,000 yuan per square meter.

Overall, driven by the concentrated transfer of multiple high-value residential plots in core areas such as Qianhai, Yuehai, and Bao'an Central in Shenzhen in June, the market premium rate peaked at the highest level of the year. Affected by the normalized land supply rhythm and decentralized plot structure in July, the national average premium rate is likely to decline from the current high level, but it is still expected to maintain an operating level higher than that of the first quarter.

At the same time, the policy orientation released at mid-year to repair the balance sheets of residents and enterprises and stabilize asset price expectations is clear. With the marginal improvement of the new residential market and the gradual stabilization of housing price expectations, real estate enterprises' investment confidence will continue to recover. The competitive popularity of high-quality plots in core cities will still be supported, and the overall investment atmosphere in the land market will continue to improve.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Ding Zuyi Reviews the Real Estate Market", authored by the Editorial Department, and published with authorization from 36Kr.