"Apple's most well-versed analyst" Ming-Chi Kuo: Foldable iPhone may see "joint announcement but delayed launch, with tight supply before year-end"

The launch rhythm of the foldable iPhone may be repeating the history of the iPhone X in 2017.

On July 5th, well - known Apple supply chain analyst Ming - Chi Kuo posted on social platform X, stating that his latest industry survey shows that the assembly and shipment volume of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 will be approximately 7 to 8 million units, with the shipment volume in the third quarter being only about 500,000 to 1 million units, accounting for about 10% of the total volume in the second half of the year. In contrast, the estimated third - quarter shipment volume of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is about 22 million units, far higher than that of the foldable model, and it has already met the inventory level required for an official release.

Based on this, Ming - Chi Kuo judged that the foldable iPhone is very likely to be released alongside other new models, but the pre - order and official sale time will be postponed to the fourth quarter, and the supply will remain tight before the end of the year.

Ming - Chi Kuo also predicted that even if the price is as high as about $2300 to $2500, the market demand for the foldable iPhone will remain strong at least until the end of 2026. After the pre - order is opened, it may sell out quickly, and the delivery cycle will rapidly extend to four to six weeks or even longer, and the premium of scalpers may reach 50% to 100% of the official price.

He also pointed out that the best window period to evaluate the real demand for the foldable iPhone will be from the end of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.

01

Lessons from the iPhone X: Joint Release, Delayed Sale

Ming - Chi Kuo highly compares the situation of the foldable iPhone with that of the iPhone X in 2017.

At that time, Apple released the iPhone X and the iPhone 8/8 Plus simultaneously on September 12, 2017. However, due to the high manufacturing difficulty, the estimated third - quarter assembly and shipment volume of the iPhone X was less than 1 million units, and the inventory did not reach the level required for the September release. Eventually, the pre - order was postponed to October 27, and the official sale date was November 3, both later than the pre - order date of September 15 and the release date of September 22 for the iPhone 8/8 Plus.

Ming - Chi Kuo pointed out that the foldable iPhone and the iPhone X are highly similar in core logic: both products take innovative user experience as the core selling point, and both face early - stage production capacity bottlenecks caused by complex manufacturing processes.

The technological breakthrough of the iPhone X back then was the first introduction of the OLED full - screen design, the notch screen, and the Face ID/TrueDepth camera system; the foldable iPhone also represents a major leap in Apple's form design.

The production capacity data is the core basis for Ming - Chi Kuo's above judgment. The third - quarter shipment volume of the foldable iPhone is about 500,000 to 1 million units, accounting for only about 10% of the total volume in the second half of the year. This proportion means that in September, when Apple usually holds new product press conferences, the inventory accumulation of the foldable iPhone is far from enough to support a simultaneous sale.

In contrast, the estimated third - quarter shipment volume of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is about 22 million units, which has fully met the inventory requirements for an official release, and the launch rhythm of these two models is not expected to be affected. The production capacity bottleneck of the foldable iPhone will put it in a special position of "only released, not sold" at the same press conference.

02

Window to Verify Real Demand: End of 2026 to First Quarter of 2027

Despite the limited supply, Ming - Chi Kuo is optimistic about the market demand for the foldable iPhone.

He said that through communication with operators, sales channels, and scalpers, he judged that even if the price is set at about $2300 to $2500, the demand for the foldable iPhone will remain strong at least until the end of 2026.

Ming - Chi Kuo predicted that after the pre - order is opened, the product will sell out quickly, and the delivery cycle will rapidly extend to four to six weeks or longer, and this level will be maintained until December.

The scarce initial supply, highly recognizable appearance design, and innovative user experience will jointly support the short - term second - hand premium. It is "not impossible" for the scalper price to be 50% to 100% higher than the official price.

Although the trends are similar, Ming - Chi Kuo also pointed out the important differences between the foldable iPhone and the iPhone X. The supply shortage of the iPhone X was significantly alleviated in late November 2017, and its final shipment volume in the second half of the year was about 30 million units.

In contrast, the estimated second - half shipment volume of the foldable iPhone is only about 7 to 8 million units, far lower than that of the iPhone X. Ming - Chi Kuo believes that this gap is simultaneously constrained by a higher price threshold and greater manufacturing difficulty. This means that the supply shortage period of the foldable iPhone may be longer, and the relief speed will also be slower.

Ming - Chi Kuo emphasized that the current market enthusiasm surrounding the foldable iPhone is still difficult to serve as a reliable basis for judging long - term demand. He believes that the best time window to evaluate the real demand for this product will be from the end of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.

By then, the year - end peak season effect and the popularity of the new product release will gradually subside, and the early production problems and supply bottlenecks should also be significantly improved. As these short - term factors gradually recede, whether the demand for the foldable iPhone is sustainable will become much clearer.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Wall Street Insights Max", author: Dong Jing. Reposted by 36Kr with permission.