Dongpeng Special Drink was "shorted" by AI: the rumormonger is in custody, but who will reimburse the halved 60 billion yuan?
A video caused a loss of 7 billion yuan in market value. Dongpeng Beverage can't just blame the rumor.
A 39 - year - old self - media person gave a lesson to the listed company Dongpeng Beverage.
On June 22, an AI - forged video of an "internal dinner" spread on social platforms: Someone offered Dongpeng Special Drink to Lin Muqin, the founder of Dongpeng Beverage, but Lin waved his hand and said, "I don't drink this usually. I drink something else."
Within four days, Dongpeng's A - shares fell by more than 8% continuously, and the total market value of A + H shares evaporated by more than 7 billion yuan.
On June 27, Dongpeng Beverage issued a statement saying that the content was "fabricated out of thin air and had no factual basis" and reported the case to the police. Zhang Xue then released the original video: The so - called "refusing to drink" was actually a conversation between her and the co - president Jiang Weiwei in April. The original words were "Have you ever drunk Dongpeng bought by others?" Lin Muqin was not present that day at all.
On June 29, the police in Nanshan, Shenzhen, reported that Luo Moumou (male, 39 years old, a self - media practitioner) fabricated false information and spread rumors with the help of AI tools to gain attention and make profits through traffic. He has been detained. Dongpeng's A - share price hit the daily limit that day, closing at 121.99 yuan per share, and the total market value returned to about 89.6 billion yuan.
(Source: The official Weibo of Nanshan Public Security in Shenzhen)
Spreading rumors is easy, but getting arrested is a certainty.
The whole incident was an unwarranted disaster, and Dongpeng was a real victim. But putting aside emotions and looking at the business level: Can a fake video of just a dozen seconds really cause a loss of 7 billion yuan in market value for a leading company worth hundreds of billions?
Overcoming Red Bull is a real feat
Dongpeng Special Drink is one of the most underestimated examples of a successful comeback in China's consumer goods industry in the past decade. Taking the top position in the industry from Red Bull is not due to luck but a precise "dependent rise" strategy.
It never competes directly with Red Bull. Instead, it targets the groups ignored by Red Bull: long - distance freight drivers, food delivery riders, construction workers, and express delivery couriers. These people have a more rigid demand for "relieving fatigue and drowsiness" than white - collar workers in office buildings, but they are also more price - sensitive. Red Bull sells a 250ml can for 6 yuan, while Dongpeng sells a 500ml can for 4 - 5 yuan.
In terms of product design, Dongpeng also takes into account the ignored needs of users.
The design of the transparent cup lid not only prevents dust when used at construction sites but also can be used as an ashtray by drivers and a measuring cup by fishing enthusiasts. These seemingly insignificant details actually solve real pain points for the blue - collar group.
According to the financial report, in 2025, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue reached 20.875 billion yuan, breaking through the 20 - billion - yuan mark for the first time, a year - on - year increase of 31.80%. The net profit was 4.415 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 32.72%.
According to Nielsen IQ data, Dongpeng Special Drink has ranked first in the sales volume of energy drinks in China for five consecutive years since 2021. In 2025, its sales volume accounted for 51.6%, and its sales revenue share reached 38.3%. For the first time, it surpassed Red Bull in terms of sales revenue, achieving the top position in both sales volume and revenue.
Channels are Dongpeng's strongest card. By the end of 2025, there were more than 3,400 distributors and over 4.5 million terminal outlets. From highway service areas to gas - station convenience stores, from school surroundings to factory shops.
"One - yuan enjoyment" is the core engine of this channel system. After consumers scan the code and win the prize, they pay 1 yuan to exchange for the product, and the 1 yuan goes directly to the store. The supplier replenishes the goods for free.
This kind of activity is essentially the same as Master Kong's iced black tea "One more bottle" and Qiaqia's melon seeds "One more bag". It directly transfers the marketing expenses to the terminals and consumers.
At the same time, the high winning rate not only sets a consumption expectation of "a pleasant surprise when opening the lid" for consumers, directly driving repeat purchases, but also forms a spontaneous word - of - mouth fission in the strong acquaintance - social atmosphere in the sinking market.
In terms of the product matrix, the annual revenue of Bu Shui La in 2025 was 3.274 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 118.99%. Its revenue share increased from 9.45% in 2024 to 15.70%. Multiple new products such as Guo Zhi Cha and Dongpeng Da Ka are accelerating their growth, contributing more than 1.5 billion yuan in total. The revenue share of non - special - drink products increased from 15.9% in 2024 to 25.2% in 2025.
In terms of marketing, in January 2026, Dongpeng officially announced that it had become the official sponsor of Zhang Xue's motorcycle team, and in April, it was upgraded to a global naming cooperation. In March, Zhang Xue's motorcycle team won two championships in a row at the WSBK Portugal station. The logo of "Dongpeng Special Drink" on the motorcycle body received a lot of exposure through the global live broadcast.
Coupled with sponsoring the KPL Honor of Kings Professional League for four consecutive years, Dongpeng is gradually penetrating into the daily consumption scenarios of Z - generation e - sports users.
These are all facts. Dongpeng's foundation is indeed solid.
It's not all the fault of public opinion
Looking at the K - line chart, the A - share price of Dongpeng Beverage was 203.76 yuan at the beginning of the year, and the historical high (in June 2025) was about 256.86 yuan. After the daily limit on June 29, it was only 121.99 yuan. It has fallen by nearly 40% since the beginning of the year and has been cut in half from the historical high.
(Source: Xueqiu.com)
The shrinkage of market value had been going on before the public - opinion outbreak. The rumor was just the spark, but the powder keg was self - made.
1. Business level: Both the flagship product and the second - growth curve have stalled
From Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, the revenue growth rates were: 39.23% → 34.10% → 30.36% → 22.88% → 21.46%. In five quarters, the growth rate dropped from nearly 40% to about 20%.
The bottleneck of the core flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, is more obvious.
In 2025, the revenue of the special drink was 15.599 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of only 17.25%, while the growth rate of this category was as high as 41.60% in 2021. In Q4 last year, the year - on - year increase was only 8.5%. In the first quarter of 2026, the revenue growth rate of energy drinks further dropped to 13.11%.
What is even more worrying is the second - growth curve. The annual growth rate of Bu Shui La was 118.99% in 2025, but in the first quarter of 2026, the growth rate dropped sharply to 13%, and the sales volume was only 645 million yuan.
The growth rate of the core product dropped from 40% to 13%, and that of the second - growth curve dropped from 119% to 13%. Both legs are slipping at the same time.
The capital market has never been kind to companies that rely on a single product.
This is the same as the market anxiety behind Dongfang Zhenxuan's "removing Dong Yuhui": A big anchor or a big product can support high - speed growth, but it also means extremely high uncertainty. Once the core target fluctuates, the foundation of the whole company will be shaken.
When more than 70% of a company's revenue comes from one product, and the growth rate of this product drops from 40% to 13%, there is no reason not to lower the valuation.
This also explains why a negative public opinion can cause such a big fluctuation in the stock price. It's not that the market believes the rumor. The market has concerns about the "single - leg - walking" model from the beginning, and the public opinion just happens to be the outlet for emotional release.
2. Brand level: The label of "blue - collar drink" is too sticky, and the sugar - content controversy makes it worse
The brand's persona has both helped and trapped it. The labels of "affordable and down - to - earth" helped Dongpeng build its market share, but they have also become a heavy shackle for the brand to move up.
In the minds of users, the perception that "Dongpeng = a cheaper alternative to Red Bull" is deeply rooted. As soon as the price increases, users vote with their feet, and the price ceiling is firmly fixed at the 5 - yuan level.
What is more difficult to break through than the price is the consumption scenario. Dongpeng's core consumption scenarios are heavily tied to physical labor. In high - premium scenarios such as business offices, sports fitness, and social gatherings, high - end brands like Red Bull are still the first choice.
The narrowing of consumption scenarios directly limits the brand's imagination space. Dongpeng Special Drink can only make money from the "rigid demand for relieving fatigue" and cannot make money from brand premium.
What is more fatal than the narrowing of scenarios is the real health risks.
According to the results of tests sent by Consumer Reports to a third - party authoritative institution, a 500ml bottle of Dongpeng Special Drink contains about 66.5g of sugar, ranking first among 12 mainstream functional drinks. Its sugar content is 2.1 times that of Red Bull.
According to the standards of the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2022), the daily added - sugar intake of adults should preferably be controlled within 25g, with an upper limit of no more than 50g. In other words, drinking one bottle of Dongpeng Special Drink already exceeds the daily upper limit of sugar intake, which is equivalent to eating nearly 15 cubes of sugar, more than 2.7 times the recommended amount.
To be fair, Dongpeng has tried to make its products healthier, but it took the wrong steps and ended up in a pit.
In April 2026, the topic of "writing 0 fat for full - sugar products and 0 sugar for full - fat products" hit the hot search. "Dongpeng 0 - sugar" was accused of being a registered trademark rather than a product description. The information on Tianyancha APP also confirms this. Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. has applied for the registration of multiple trademarks related to "Dongpeng 0 - sugar", "Dongpeng 0 - sugar Special Drink", and "0 - sugar Special Drink".
(Source: Tianyancha)
A marketing campaign that aimed to fit the health trend ultimately turned into a backlash of trust.
According to the Report on Chinese Consumers' Sugar Awareness and Sugar - Control Behaviors, 67.87% of consumers across the country believe they have a need to control sugar intake. For Dongpeng's core user group, the demand for a high - cost - performance, affordable low - sugar version of the product is quite high.
But this raises a soul - searching question: If the sugar is removed from Dongpeng Special Drink, is it still the Dongpeng Special Drink that can "refresh the mind" of drivers?
The "refreshing feeling" of functional drinks is deeply tied to the rapid blood - sugar increase and energy supply brought by high sugar. There is a natural tension between "function" and "health", and the whole industry has not yet come up with a perfect balance plan.
3. Financial level: Cash flow and profit are deviated, and the dealer rebates are expanding rapidly
According to the financial data, in the first quarter of 2026, the revenue was 5.888 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.46%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.257 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.31%. Both showed high growth, but the net cash flow from operating activities was 452 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28.35%.
It is worth noting that by the end of Q1 2026, the total balance of sales rebates and discounts payable by Dongpeng Beverage was 3.448 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 70%, which is equivalent to 78% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025.
This means that the company is continuously increasing the rebate subsidies for dealers. From the perspective of industry rules, when the growth rate of rebates far exceeds the growth rate of revenue, it usually indicates a slowdown in the natural sales at the terminal. The enterprise needs to offer greater discounts to maintain the purchase rhythm of dealers.
Lin Muqin attributed it to "the intensification of market competition and the increase in promotional efforts, which are routine marketing arrangements in the industry". It is indeed routine. But when the scale of a routine marketing provision is approaching 80% of the net profit attributable to the parent company of last year, the weight of this "routine expenditure" cannot be simply described as "routine".
Beating Red Bull is just the first half
Many people think that beating Red Bull is the end - game for Dongpeng. But from an industry perspective, reaching the top is actually the start of a new and tougher battle.
In the past few years, Red Bull has been deeply involved in trademark disputes, with serious internal brand consumption. There has been a vacuum period in channels and the market. Dongpeng firmly grasped this window period and quickly filled the gap through channel sinking and cost - effectiveness. It has grown from a small factory in South China to the national leader in both sales volume and revenue.
But after reaching the top, the days have become even more difficult.
Energy - drink track: Although Lehu and Zhanma have not caught up, they