An on-the-spot investigation into the first batch of houses released from the sale restriction in Shanghai: It's hard to get a bargain
If you've been looking at second-hand houses in Shanghai recently, especially those that are relatively new, chances are you've been caught up in a certain kind of mood. On one hand, real estate agents are stoking the fire, saying that landlords are raising prices and if you don't buy now, it'll only get more expensive. On the other hand, the information flow is scaring you - 2026 is the year when a large number of restrictions will be lifted, and tens of thousands of relatively new houses will flood the market. The situation in the Greater Hongqiao area might change dramatically.
Once the data from the National Bureau of Statistics came out, people's confidence hit rock bottom. The entire market has seen a price increase from negative to positive. You'll start asking yourself repeatedly: If I buy now, am I buying at the peak? If I wait a bit longer, can I get a bargain from the wave of houses being sold after restrictions are lifted?
But when you actually enter the market, you'll find a very abnormal phenomenon: The houses that are in high demand are still being snapped up, and the ones that can't be sold are still hanging there unsold. The market neither saw the expected overall price increase nor the concentrated dumping of houses. Instead, a more important thing is quietly happening: Lifting the restrictions is not about releasing risks, but rather a re - grading of the supply quality.
01. On - site exploration of three major areas: The quality of these houses is more solid than expected
Regarding the Greater Hongqiao area, an agent said, "Why would a neighborhood with a 90% occupancy rate have a housing price crash?"
The Greater Hongqiao area is the one that has been "bearish" the most. The restricted - sale projects in 2021, such as Panlong Tiandi, Vanke Sky City, and China Merchants Hongqiao Mansion, were all "instant - sold" projects. These are also the areas where people have always estimated that a large number of houses will flood the market. The theoretical data is indeed quite large.
When visiting Xujing for on - site inspections, it was found that the situation was calmer than expected. In the first phase of Panlong Tiandi, the occupancy rate is over 90%. At 7 or 8 pm, the neighborhood is brightly lit, and the commercial street downstairs is bustling with activity. In the first phase of China Merchants Hongqiao Mansion, the occupancy rate is also close to 80%. There are large areas of relatively new houses, with a well - organized urban layout, a large number of young people, and a strong sense of life.
In a neighborhood with a 90% occupancy rate, the vast majority of houses are for self - occupation. Even if the restrictions are lifted, there are still very few houses that will be sold immediately. The agent said that the number of house viewings has indeed increased. Several owners in Panlong Tiandi contacted Lianjia in advance and planned to list their houses at a relatively high price. The exact words were, "I'm not in a hurry to sell. I'll list it at a high price and negotiate slowly." The buyers who come to view the houses are more serious than before. In the past, most were small - apartment investors, but now most are self - occupation buyers looking for large - apartment improvements.
Moreover, the rental market in the Greater Hongqiao area is also stable. The relatively new houses in Xujing are rented out quickly. Although the rent is not as high as the peak, it gives the landlords a "safety cushion". If they can't sell, they can rent first and not be in a hurry. Back then, the high - scoring buyers with long - term social security contributions and self - occupation buyers with urgent needs were the main forces. The proportion of real investors is much lower than expected, and it is estimated that not many middle - end houses will be put up for sale.
For Pujiang Town in Minhang, the anchoring effect of relatively new houses has determined that there is not much room for price reduction after the restrictions are lifted. Pujiang Town is a large - scale area. Large projects such as New Pujiang City and Pujiang OCT have long occupied the top positions in the list of second - hand house sales area in Shanghai. With a large base, the liquidity is strong, and the replacement chain is clear. Against the background that the price of resettlement houses in this area has been halved from the peak, the commercial housing in this area is unexpectedly stable.
The "Millennium New City" where the restrictions are being lifted this time is a typical example. The commercial housing has a good layout and strong property management, so the price is stable. Even compared with the contemporary commercial housing in the surrounding areas, although the view is not as good and the price is a bit higher, the sales volume still leads. As long as the layout is good, it can still be sold easily. More interestingly, the stable price of relatively new houses, in turn, has boosted the sales of new houses. Since the price of relatively new houses doesn't drop, buyers find that the price of new houses is not that expensive either. This is the "anchoring effect" of relatively new houses. For example, Xiangyu Tianchen Yasonsong has received the overflow of improvement - oriented buyers who were originally planning to buy relatively new houses, and its sales volume is extremely good.
The agent also said that for the houses with lifted restrictions in Pujiang Town, the landlords' attitude is "sell if it can be sold, and continue to live if not". There is no sense of urgency to "get rid of them at all costs". After all, the inventory of second - hand houses has indeed decreased.
Zhoupu and Kangqiao in Pudong: Liquidity is more important than price. Zhoupu and Kangqiao are one of the most active areas for property replacement in Pudong. From rental housing to commercial housing to villas, the housing structure is complete, and the internal liquidity of the area is extremely strong. Many people who are used to living in government - subsidized rental housing buy affordable housing in the same area, and there are also many who replace their houses in the same area after getting married.
Among the houses with lifted restrictions, some were indeed bought by investors back then. However, these houses are well - maintained, almost brand new, and the internal environment and community space are also well - maintained. Compared with the current new houses, they have an obvious price advantage, which is very attractive to affordable - housing buyers with limited budgets.
The most interesting thing is that in the same neighborhood, there are both houses with lifted restrictions and those without, listed at the same time. The price reference is very transparent, and as a result, the bargaining space is very small. The agent said that a buyer wanted to knock off 50,000 yuan from the price of a house he liked. The landlord directly replied, "Look at the house next door that hasn't had its restrictions lifted. It's listed at a higher price than mine." The buyer was stunned for a moment and finally signed the contract. The speed was astonishing. The buyer saw the house in the afternoon, and in the evening, the agent said that someone had come to the store to sign the contract. It only took a total of 6 hours.
02. The 'good' seen during on - site inspections can be explained by data
After visiting these areas, one can intuitively feel that the quality of these relatively new houses with lifted restrictions is more solid than expected, the popularity of house viewings is higher than expected, and the price is more stable than expected. Behind this contrast in expectations, there is more substantial data support.
First, the number of listed houses in the whole city has been continuously decreasing. Since August 2025, the second - hand housing market in Shanghai has entered a de - inventory stage, and the number of listed houses has decreased by 25.7% compared with the peak. In February this year, the number of listed second - hand residential houses in the whole city has been decreasing for four consecutive months. In March, the number of house viewings within Lianjia increased by 28% compared with January, and the average transaction cycle has been shortened from 49 days to 39 days. The water level in the pool is dropping, and there are more and more fish. The basic supply - demand situation has changed.
Second, the real proportion of relatively new houses is much smaller than expected. Among the more than 80,000 listed houses on Shanghai Lianjia, there are only about 10,000 houses with a house age of less than 10 years, and only more than 1,000 are truly relatively new houses with a house age of less than 5 years. Even if we calculate the 30,000 - plus houses with lifted restrictions at a high - estimated listing rate of 10%, there will only be 3,000 to 6,000 houses that may enter the market throughout the year. For the Shanghai second - hand housing market with a monthly transaction volume of 20,000 to 30,000 houses, the impact is quite limited.
Third, the projects that can trigger the points - based system are top - notch ones. Among the 94 restricted - sale projects in 2021, 48 projects have listing records, and nearly 70% of the listing prices are higher than the new - house filing prices of that year. The filing price of Fuxing Longyu in Huangpu District was 136,000 yuan per square meter, and now it is listed at 200,000 - 210,000 yuan per square meter. The filing price of the fifth phase of Cuihu Tiandi was 165,000 yuan per square meter, and the latest listing price is 254,000 yuan per square meter. The scenario of "sell immediately after restrictions are lifted" simply doesn't play out for luxury houses in the core areas. There are price drops for relatively new houses in the suburbs, but the decline is not that large, and the listing prices are quite firm, with the intention of negotiating slowly later.
Fourth, the market structure is differentiating. In the second - hand housing transactions in Shanghai in March, more than 70% of the total prices were below 3 million yuan. The relatively new houses entering the market after restrictions are lifted are mostly mid - class improvement projects starting at 6 million yuan. They are completely different customer groups from the main affordable - housing buyers with budgets below 5 million yuan. Old and shabby houses and relatively new houses have followed two completely different market trends. They don't compete with each other, and each has its own buyers. Thus, the trend of increased stability in the second - hand housing market is clear.
03. What are the people behind the data doing?
Second - hand houses are not stocks. Behind each transaction are real people making decisions, and each product is a non - standard one.
Nowadays, the landlords are as calm as experienced experts. In March, the average listing price of second - hand residential houses in Shanghai increased by 0.08% month - on - month, ending a 33 - month continuous decline. A customer in Pujiang Town wanted to negotiate the price during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. As a result, it was not uncommon for the landlord to raise the price by 50,000 - 100,000 yuan on the same day. This is not an isolated case, and the same situation also exists in other areas. Even the front - line workers in the Greater Hongqiao area now feel that there is no impact.
There are even landlords who directly take their houses off the market. More than 70% of the removed listings are due to landlords taking the initiative. The bargaining space has narrowed from 10% - 15% at the end of last year to less than 5%. However, the sources of the landlords' confidence are also differentiating: Self - occupation landlords "can sell or not sell", and they list at a high price and wait patiently. The prices of the houses owned by investors are indeed more negotiable. The large - apartment houses and those whose landlords are eager to cash out are the easiest to negotiate, but the number is really small.
It can be said that the affordable - housing buyers should take the credit for this small price increase. Among these affordable - housing buyers, there are a large number of out - of - town buyers. They have less attachment to the ring - road areas and value the convenience of the surrounding living environment and children's education more. In addition, the demand for house replacement based on area requirements from families is very strong, and they have been waiting for this wave of relatively new houses. They have no illusions about the "price - inversion myth" back then and simply look at the budget and transaction price. Cost - effectiveness is basically the only determining factor.
On the other hand, it is the real estate agents who can stabilize the prices of the relatively new houses with lifted restrictions. Through social auctions and early down - payments, some houses have actually locked in buyers before the restrictions are lifted. At the same time, it also provides a more direct reference for the subsequent houses with lifted restrictions. The price anchor has been formed without waiting for the full lifting of restrictions. The rental market is also a safety cushion. For example, it is easy to rent out houses in the Greater Hongqiao area, and the rent is stable, which further calms the landlords' minds.
04. How to handle this late entry ticket?
So, going back to the original question: What should people who are currently looking at houses do?
If you are an affordable - housing buyer, focus on the areas with a large number of houses with lifted restrictions (such as Xujing, Pujiang, Zhoupu and Kangqiao, Tangzhen, etc.). Look at more houses and negotiate more, but don't expect a big price cut. The landlords who are willing to sell now are either in a hurry to replace their houses or eager to cash out their investments. There is indeed some room for negotiation, but not much. It's also a choice for landlords to follow the market trend. But if you wait for a bigger price drop, there is basically no chance.
If you are a house - replacement buyer, your biggest opponent is not the current house - owners but the "can - sell - or - not - sell" landlords of your target replacement houses. In this regard, the most useful strategy may be to look at more houses, compare more, and negotiate patiently. Be the one who exchanges time for space. Look for sincere sellers - those whose house prices have been adjusted three or four times in half a year, or those who are willing to lower the listing price actively while others are raising prices during the spring housing market boom. These are the ones you can really negotiate with.
If you are a wait - and - see person, this time point may not be very good. If you are determined to buy a relatively new house, you should start looking at houses now because the number of listed relatively new houses has always been small. By looking at more houses, you can develop a sensitivity to prices. Only when you see enough houses can you recognize a good opportunity when you really encounter it.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Zhen Jiao Lu Jun", author: Zhen Jiao Lu Jun Team. Republished by 36Kr with permission.