Earning 350,000 yuan with one new share subscription: How lucrative is new share investing in the first half of the year?

As the first half of 2026 is coming to an end, the A-share market has reached 4,000 points. What's the profit - making effect in the new - stock subscription market?

On June 24, Zhenbao Technology (688797.SH), a semiconductor component enterprise, was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. On the first day of listing, its stock price opened significantly higher by 905% to 448 yuan per share. As of the close of that day, it rose 1,212.84% to 585 yuan per share, becoming the second stock to increase ten - fold on the first day this year, with a total market value exceeding 90 billion yuan. Calculated based on the closing increase on the first day, an investor who won a lottery for one lot (500 shares) of Zhenbao Technology would have a floating profit of about 270,200 yuan on the first day. This is the third most profitable new stock in the A - share market in the first half of the year.

Looking back at the A - share new - stock subscription market in the first half of 2026 (as of June 25, excluding Huike Co., Ltd., which was listed on June 26), a total of 68 new stocks were listed in the A - share market in the first half of the year. The average increase on the first day reached 280.7%, which means that investors who won the lottery could on average obtain nearly three times the book profit, hitting a new high in the past decade since 2017. The profit - making effect of new - stock subscription continued to be hot. At the same time, none of the new stocks broke their issue prices on the first day of listing, continuing the trend of zero break - even since 2025. In the past few years, after the full implementation of the registration system, new stocks often broke their issue prices.

Regarding the profit - making effect of the new - stock subscription market in the first half of this year, a private equity institution person in Beijing told "Caixin": "On the one hand, the overall liquidity environment in the market in the first half of the year was relatively loose, and the sentiment in the A - share market was good. Funds showed a high enthusiasm for chasing new stocks. On the other hand, the supply rhythm of new stocks in the first half of the year was relatively restrained. The issuance of 68 new stocks in half a year did not have an obvious blood - drawing effect on the market. In addition, the pricing of new - stock issuance has been continuously optimized, and the overall price - to - earnings ratio at the initial public offering is in a reasonable and relatively low range, leaving sufficient room for growth after listing."

In fact, in the past three years, the profit - making effect of A - share new - stock subscription has shown an obvious recovery trend. From 2022 to 2023, under the registration system, the supply of new stocks increased significantly, and the implicit red line of 23 - times price - to - earnings ratio for new - stock pricing was broken. At the same time, combined with the weak market, new stocks in the A - share market often broke their issue prices, and the profit - making effect was significantly weak. The A - share new - stock subscription market reached a freezing point. Since 2024, as the market has gradually recovered and the supply of new stocks has significantly decreased, the profit - making effect of A - share new - stock subscription has returned again.

01

Nearly 80% of new stocks doubled on the first day of listing

Wind data shows that as of June 25, a total of 68 new stocks were listed in the A - share market in the first half of the year. The average increase on the first day reached 280.7%, hitting a new high in the past decade. Since 2022, the returns from A - share new - stock subscription have shown an obvious upward trend, with the first - day increases being 30.3%, 66.5%, 252.8%, and 259.3% respectively.

In the first half of 2026, there were 53 new stocks whose prices doubled on the first day of listing, accounting for 77.9%; 30 new stocks had an increase of more than twice on the first day of listing, accounting for 44.1%; 10 new stocks had an increase of more than five times on the first day of listing, accounting for 14.7%.

Among them, the top five new stocks in terms of the first - day increase were Changjin Photonics (688635.SH), Zhenbao Technology (688797.SH), Lianxun Instrument (688808.SH), Xinrui Electronics (920211.BJ), and Jiadeli (603435.SH), with the first - day increases being 1,510.52%, 1,212.84%, 875.82%, 800.67%, and 710.15% respectively. The increases of the first two stocks were higher than that of Dapeng Industry, the new stock with the largest first - day increase in 2025, which was 1,211.11%. Among these five new stocks, the first three were from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the fourth and fifth were from the Beijing Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board respectively.

The stock with the lowest increase also had an increase of more than 40% on the first day of listing. It was Tongling Technology (920187.BJ), a new stock on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a first - day increase of 41.42%. This shows that in the first half of this year, the break - even rate of all 68 new stocks on the first day of listing was zero. At the same time, it also means that investors who subscribed for new stocks in the first half of this year had no risk of break - even, and could "make a sure profit" and "subscribe for new stocks blindly", continuing the trend of zero break - even since 2025.

In terms of the returns from new - stock subscription, calculated based on an investor winning one lot (1,000 shares for the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board, 500 shares for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's main board, ChiNext, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and 100 shares for the Beijing Stock Exchange) and the closing increase on the first day of listing, a total of 34 new stocks had a return of more than 10,000 yuan from new - stock subscription, accounting for 50%; 25 new stocks had a return of more than 20,000 yuan, accounting for 36.8%; 8 new stocks had a return of more than 50,000 yuan, accounting for 7.4%.

Lianxun Instrument, Changjin Photonics, Zhenbao Technology, Hengyunchang (688785.SH), and Jiadeli ranked among the top five in the list of returns from new - stock subscription in the first half of the year. Calculated based on the first - day increase, the returns from new - stock subscription for winning one lot of these stocks were all more than 100,000 yuan, which were 358,600 yuan, 309,500 yuan, 270,200 yuan, 139,600 yuan, and 111,900 yuan respectively. The 358,600 - yuan return from new - stock subscription of Lianxun Instrument was very close to the 362,600 - yuan record set by Muxi Co., Ltd. on December 17, 2025. Among these five new stocks, the first four were from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Jiadeli was from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board. It is worth noting that all five new stocks were new technology stocks in the fields of semiconductors and hardware equipment.

After the listing of Lianxun Instrument, its stock price continued to rise. On May 18, its intraday stock price reached 1,361 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the most expensive stock in the A - share market. As of June 24, the stock price of Lianxun Instrument was as high as 2,586.03 yuan per share, making it the only stock in the A - share market with a price above 2,000 yuan. Its stock price increased by more than 30 times two months after listing, with a total market value of 270 billion yuan.

02

Significant returns from new - stock subscription on the Science and Technology Innovation Board

Looking at different sectors, there was an obvious differentiation in the increases of new stocks and the returns from new - stock subscription among different A - share sectors. Among them, the 11 new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board had the highest average increase of 489.83% on the first day of listing, nearly a five - fold increase; their average return from new - stock subscription on the first day was also the highest, reaching 108,700 yuan, significantly exceeding other sectors.

At the same time, for ordinary investors, the threshold for opening an account to subscribe for new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board is higher than that of other sectors. They need to meet the conditions such as having an average daily securities asset of ≥ 500,000 yuan (excluding margin trading liabilities) in the 20 trading days before opening the account; having at least 24 months of securities trading experience; and having a risk assessment of C4 or above.

In the past two years, there have been continuous new policies for listings on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. On June 17, Wu Qing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced at the Lujiazui Forum that the scope of application of the fifth listing standard on the Science and Technology Innovation Board would be expanded to the artificial intelligence field, and at the same time, support would be provided for the listing of enterprises in future industries such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing.

A group of leading hard - technology enterprises are gradually listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Two star technology companies, Changxin Technology and Yushu Technology, which have attracted much market attention, are expected to start the process of new - stock subscription and listing in the third quarter of this year. Investors are looking forward to the profit - making effect of new - stock subscription after their listing. In addition, Blue Arrow Aerospace, Zhipu AI, MiniMax, etc. have also started the listing process on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

In the first half of the year, 9 new stocks were listed on the ChiNext. Their average increase on the first day of listing reached 317.92%, ranking second; the average return from new - stock subscription on the first day was 38,600 yuan, also ranking second. A total of 14 new stocks were listed on the main boards of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The average increase on the first day was 217.57%, lower than that of the Beijing Stock Exchange, ranking fourth. However, the average return from new - stock subscription on the main board was 37,500 yuan, higher than that of the Beijing Stock Exchange.

The Beijing Stock Exchange had the largest number of new - stock listings in the first half of the year, with a total of 34, accounting for half. The average increase on the first day was 229.12%, ranking third. However, since an investor who wins one lot of new - stock subscription on the Beijing Stock Exchange only gets 100 shares, the returns from new - stock subscription are generally lower than those of other A - share sectors. The average return from new - stock subscription was 4,100 yuan. At the same time, it is worth noting that among all 68 new stocks, the 27 new stocks with the lowest returns from new - stock subscription were all from the Beijing Stock Exchange. Among them, the stock with the lowest return from new - stock subscription was Ruier Jingda (920191.BJ), and the return from new - stock subscription for winning one lot was only 717 yuan.

03

The difficulty of winning the new - stock subscription lottery hits a new high in the past five years

Due to the significant returns from new - stock subscription in the first half of the year, a large number of investors flocked to subscribe for new stocks. The difficulty of winning the new - stock subscription lottery in the A - share market in the first half of the year hit a new low in the past five years. The average online subscription winning rate of the 68 new stocks was only about 0.028%, that is, 2.8 per ten thousand. This means that on average, among every ten thousand subscribers, less than three people win the lottery. The average online subscription winning rates from 2022 to 2025 were 0.034%, 0.043%, 0.050%, and 0.034% respectively.

The new stocks with the lowest and highest new - stock subscription winning rates were Shaanxi Tourism (603402.SH), a new stock on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board, and Meidele (920119.BJ), a new stock on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with winning rates of 0.0131% and 0.057% respectively.

It is worth noting that for the top five new stocks in terms of the returns from new - stock subscription on the first day of listing this year, the difficulty of winning the new - stock subscription lottery was not among the top in the 68 new stocks, but the difficulty was basically in the top one - third. Among them, the winning rate of Lianxun Instrument, which had the highest return from new - stock subscription, was 0.0224%, and the difficulty of winning the lottery ranked 23rd among all 68 new stocks. The winning rates of the other four new stocks, Changjin Photonics, Zhenbao Technology, Hengyunchang, and Jiadeli, were 0.0205%, 0.0217%, 0.0218%, and 0.022% respectively, and the difficulties of winning the lottery ranked 15th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd respectively.

Regarding the new - stock subscription market in the second half of 2026, the aforementioned private equity institution person told "Caixin" that zero break - even and extremely high average increases are positive signals, indicating that the current new - stock pricing mechanism generally tends to benefit the secondary market, and the new - stock subscription strategy has a very high winning rate. For investors who continue to participate in new - stock subscription, this trend may continue in the short term.

However, he also reminded that the high first - day increase also implies the risk of over - heated valuation after the listing of new stocks. Selling on the first day of listing is a better strategy. For investors who did not win the lottery, if they participate in the trading of newly - listed stocks, they may face a relatively large retracement risk in the short term. At the same time, it should be noted that if the IPO (Initial Public Offering) rhythm accelerates or the market sentiment changes in the future, the current extremely high first - day increase may face the pressure of mean reversion. Investors should pay attention to the changes in the subsequent issuance rhythm and the pricing of new stocks.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Caixin Magazine". Author: Kang Guoliang, Editor: Yang Xi