Competing in the commercial aerospace race: Who will be China's SpaceX?

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX officially went public on the U.S. stock market, raising $75 billion in what became the largest IPO (Initial Public Offering) in global history. On the first day of listing, SpaceX's total market value reached $2.1 trillion, surpassing tech giants such as Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom at once, and ranking sixth among U.S. companies in terms of market value.

On June 15, the second trading day after listing, SpaceX's stock price rose another 19.6%, and its total market value reached $2.52 trillion.

The listing of this commercial space giant founded by Elon Musk in 2002 is of milestone significance for the emerging global commercial space industry.

"SpaceX's listing marks the official entry of commercial space from a high - risk marginal track into the core assets of the global capital market," Lin Yankun, the founder of X GROUP (Deju Investment), who participated in investing in SpaceX in 2021, told Caixin. After SpaceX's listing, it will further expand its leading edge, prompting countries and regions such as China, Europe, and Japan to increase policy support and capital investment in commercial space. In the future, global space competition will no longer be just a competition between national space agencies, but also a competition between commercial space enterprises supported by countries.

Currently, SpaceX is the leader in the global commercial space industry. It was the first in the world to master the key core technology of "reusable rockets" and has the rocket transportation capacity to enter space "stably, frequently, and at low cost", pushing the traditional space engineering into the era of "scalable and profitable" commercial space.

In terms of revenue scale, in 2025, SpaceX's operating income reached 131.3 billion yuan; in the same period, the total revenue of 77 constituent stocks of the A - share Wind Commercial Space Index was 170.7 billion yuan.

SpaceX's leading advantage has brought unprecedented competitive pressure to the Chinese commercial space industry. "Currently, the overall gap between Chinese and U.S. commercial space is about five to ten years, which is quite obvious. The Chinese commercial space industry from top to bottom feels extremely anxious, and the industry pressure is huge," several domestic commercial space practitioners told Caixin.

The gap between the two sides is mainly reflected in the large - scale application of reusable rocket technology, the advancement of low - orbit satellites, the scale of constellation deployment, and the maturity of the commercial space ecosystem. In the competition for near - earth orbit resources that can only accommodate 60,000 - 80,000 satellites, the "first - come, first - served" rule leaves a very limited time window for latecomers.

Driven by external competition, the Chinese commercial space industry is making efforts in three dimensions: "policy, capital, and technology" to catch up with full strength. The Chinese and U.S. commercial space industries have entered a fierce "race".

In terms of top - level design, in November 2025, the state issued a three - year action plan for commercial space and established a Commercial Space Department to uniformly plan orbit, spectrum, and launch site resources, avoiding disorderly competition and space security risks; at the same time, it fully opened up the tracks for social capital, private rockets, and satellite manufacturing, with the national team and private enterprises collaborating in division of labor.

"In fact, China's space industry has long been the second in the world and has the institutional advantage of the whole - nation system. Before the emergence of SpaceX, the competition between China and the U.S. was very close," Zhang Chuanzheng, the managing partner of Chuanxiang Investment, told Caixin. Narrowing the gap with SpaceX is a systematic task. Technological breakthroughs require an innovative environment, and an innovative environment requires flexible policy support. The two are complementary. Currently, the state has issued a series of policies and high - quality development guidance opinions to encourage the development of commercial space. With the support of both policies and capital, these factors will gradually converge, and ultimately achieve a transformation from quantitative change to qualitative change.

01

The "Leader" SpaceX

As the current leader in the global commercial space industry, SpaceX was dual - listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Texas Exchange on June 12, with the stock code "SPCX". On the first day of listing, its total market value reached $2.1 trillion, surpassing tech giants such as Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom at once, and ranking sixth among U.S. companies in terms of market value, only after Nvidia, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon.

It is quite rare for a commercial space technology company to have a market value comparable to that of the seven long - standing core technology giants in the global technology field on the U.S. stock market after listing.

The prospectus shows that SpaceX has three major business segments: space launches, Starlink network, and artificial intelligence business centered on the merged xAI. In 2025, the above three businesses achieved revenues of $4.09 billion, $11.39 billion, and $3.2 billion respectively, and in the same period, they had an operating loss of $660 million, an operating profit of $4.42 billion, and an operating loss of $6.36 billion respectively. Among them, the Starlink network business is its main source of profit.

In this IPO, SpaceX issued a total of 555.6 million shares, raising as much as $75 billion, far exceeding the previous IPO record of $29.4 billion set by Saudi Aramco, a Middle Eastern oil giant, in 2019. At the same time, it also granted the underwriters an over - allotment option within 30 days after the IPO, allowing them to purchase an additional 83.3 million shares at the IPO issue price. On the second trading day after listing, the underwriters fully exercised the over - allotment option, increasing SpaceX's total fundraising to $85.7 billion.

Previously, in the public subscription phase, SpaceX was warmly pursued by institutions and retail investors, attracting subscriptions of more than $250 billion, nearly four times the total issued share capital. Among them, the subscription orders from retail investors exceeded $100 billion. In addition, many large institutional investors such as BlackRock also participated in the subscription of SpaceX, indicating the optimistic expectations of investors for this company full of "space economy" imagination.

"Many people regard SpaceX as a rocket company, but it is now a space infrastructure company that reconstructs the cost structure of the space industry through engineering innovation. So its business scope is getting larger and larger, and it has completely gone beyond rocket launch services. This is also an important reason for its epic - level IPO," Zhang Lu, the founder and managing partner of Fusion Fund in Silicon Valley and an investor in SpaceX, told Caixin.

"For many years, the main competitor that Chinese commercial space has targeted is SpaceX. Its IPO's greatest role in the industry is to confirm the commercial closed - loop and value of commercial space. SpaceX's listing and the business forms and valuations disclosed in its prospectus prove that commercial space not only has value but also has a closed - loop value chain and huge value," Zhang Chuanzheng told Caixin.

Zhang Chuanzheng further mentioned that SpaceX's IPO also plays a role in anchoring value. In the past, there was no suitable reference for the valuation of Chinese commercial space enterprises. After SpaceX's listing, Chinese enterprises can set a valuation with a reference based on their own positions in the industrial chain, referring to SpaceX's revenue scale, revenue system, and business structure. This is also one of the most important impacts on the industry and the capital market.

In fact, SpaceX is currently the leading enterprise in the global commercial space field, dominating the market.

Public information shows that SpaceX is a space transportation company founded by Musk in June 2002. On September 28, 2008, after three consecutive failed launches, the fourth launch of the Falcon 1 (Falcon - 1) launch vehicle developed by SpaceX was finally successful, becoming the first private liquid rocket to enter orbit. In December 2015, the first - stage rocket of the Falcon 9, a reusable rocket developed by SpaceX, was successfully recovered on land for the first time, thus mastering the low - cost and high - frequency reusable rocket technology, and human space engineering entered the era of commercial space. In May 2019, the first batch of Starlink satellites of SpaceX was launched, starting the layout of the low - orbit satellite Internet.

Currently, SpaceX has a rocket launch capacity far exceeding that of other enterprises and countries. The launch cost of the reusable Falcon 9 rocket has reached about $2,500 - $3,000 per kilogram, approximately equivalent to 17,000 - 20,000 yuan per kilogram, far lower than the current domestic launch cost of about 50,000 - 100,000 yuan per kilogram. The Starship, a fully reusable super - heavy launch vehicle system with a payload capacity of over 100 tons that SpaceX is developing, aims to reduce the launch cost to $100 per kilogram.

At the same time, SpaceX's rocket launch frequency is also significantly ahead. In 2025, SpaceX conducted a total of 170 rocket launches, accounting for 85.86% of the world's total launches, truly "dominating the market".

As of the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX's satellite Internet project, Starlink, had a total of about 9,600 near - earth orbit satellites, accounting for about 75% of the world's total number of maneuverable in - orbit satellites. It provides broadband services to 10.3 million subscribed users in 164 countries and regions, forming the largest space - based constellation in human history.

Based on this powerful space transportation capacity, SpaceX is building a trillion - dollar space business map from the Starlink project to space computing power and then to space colonization.

"SpaceX has reduced the launch cost by an order of magnitude through the Falcon 9, and the maturity of the Starship will reduce it by another order of magnitude. Low - cost access to space will completely release the potential of the space economy. It will accelerate the full - scale explosion of the space economy. In the past, only governments could undertake space missions, but now small and medium - sized enterprises and even individuals can participate. Emerging industries such as space computing power, space tourism, space manufacturing, space solar energy, and deep - space exploration will gradually be commercialized in the next decade," Lin Yankun told Caixin.

However, some institutions have also reminded that there may be bubble and volatility risks in SpaceX at present. Well - known short - selling investor Jim Chanos mentioned, "We are witnessing a $75 - billion IPO with a valuation close to $2 trillion, while the company's revenue is only $19 billion and its free cash flow is negative. This is a 'hope and dream' - style IPO."

David Trainer, the CEO of investment research institution New Construct, believes that SpaceX is over - priced and extremely risky, and investors should avoid it. He said that if investors hope to achieve an annualized return of about 10% in the next decade, then SpaceX's revenue must reach $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is 58 times its revenue in 2025. To achieve this growth curve, SpaceX needs to maintain an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% for ten consecutive years.

02

The Race under "Reverse Pressure"

Facing SpaceX's leading advantage and the pressure of seizing limited space resources on a "first - come, first - served" basis, the world has gradually entered a race in the commercial space industry. Currently, U.S. companies led by SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab and Chinese companies led by the national team and private commercial space enterprises form a two - strong confrontation in this field. However, China still lags far behind the United States in the commercial space field and needs to catch up quickly. The Chinese and U.S. commercial space industries have entered a state of competing development.

From the current situation, according to data from the CCID Think Tank, the scale of the Chinese commercial space market reached 2.83 trillion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year increase of more than 23%, and the compound annual growth rate in the past five years was as high as 23.1%. It is estimated that the market scale will exceed 3.5 trillion yuan in 2026 and is expected to reach the level of 7 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan.

CITIC Construction Investment believes that the strategic significance of the development of Chinese commercial space is self - evident. Both China and the United States have placed commercial space at a very high strategic level. Currently, the core of China's development of commercial space is to "occupy frequencies and protect orbits". The United States has proposed to "ensure space superiority". The development of SpaceX's Starship is going smoothly, and the recovery of the New Glenn rocket of Blue Origin, the world's second reusable rocket, was successful. China's demand for "occupying frequencies and protecting orbits" of constellations is more urgent.

According to data provided by the Yuanhe Chenkun Research Institute to Caixin, in the global space launch pattern, except for China and the United States, which are very active, the launch frequencies of other countries basically remain at a normal level. Since 2022, with the high - frequency launches of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets, the gap in launch scale between China and the United States has widened, but in recent years, the gap has shown a narrowing trend. In 2024, the number of U.S. launches was 2.3 times that of China, the in - orbit payload mass was 13 times that of China, and the average single - launch payload capacity was 6 times that of China; in 2025, the above data decreased to 2.1 times, 8 times, and 4 times respectively.

Meanwhile, as of the end of 2025, among the world's in - orbit satellites, the United States is absolutely leading, China is close to Europe, ranking third. As of the end of 2025, the total number of in - orbit satellites in the world was 14,195. The United States had 10,826, accounting for 76.3%; China had 1,170, accounting for 8.2%. There was a nearly ten - fold gap in the number of in - orbit satellites between China and the United States.

Driven by the "reverse pressure effect", the Chinese commercial space industry is making efforts in three dimensions: "policy, technology, and capital" to catch up with the U.S. commercial space industry led by SpaceX.

At the policy level, in November 2025, the China National Space Administration officially established the Commercial Space Department, which is the first national - level full - time regulatory agency for the Chinese commercial space industry. In the same month, the China National Space Administration issued the Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027), incorporating commercial space into the overall layout of the country's space development.

Industry insiders believe that the core of the above policies is to strengthen top - level design and capital support by establishing the full - time regulatory agency, the Commercial Space Department, and a national fund of 20 billion yuan in the first phase. The focus is on breakthroughs in low - cost launch technologies such as reusable rockets and the expansion of new business forms such as space manufacturing and in - orbit services. At the same time, it promotes the open sharing of national scientific research facilities and expands government procurement, aiming to build a safe and efficient industrial ecosystem. It is expected that high - quality development of commercial space will be basically achieved by 2027.

In terms of local policies, as of October 2025, 15 provinces had issued special policies for commercial space. Focusing on the ecological construction of the entire commercial space industry chain, many places such as Shanghai, Hubei, and Beijing have given special subsidies ranging from one million to tens of millions of yuan in satellite manufacturing, rocket development, and ground station construction, and the subsidy for breakthroughs in key core technology products can reach up to hundreds of millions of yuan.

At the capital level, on December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Application of the Fifth Listing Standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board for Commercial Rocket Enterprises, pointing out a clear path for commercial space enterprises to sprint for the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

At the technology level, the national team and private commercial space enterprises are accelerating the development of reusable rockets to break through the "bottleneck" in this key technology field in China as soon as possible.

December 2025 was a crucial month. On December 3, the Zhuque - 3 reusable carrier rocket of LandSpace successfully achieved second - stage orbit insertion, completing the first domestic verification of the first - stage vertical recovery technology. Although the first - stage recovery failed, the core flight control plan was verified. On December 23, the Long March 12A of the national team, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, also achieved its first orbit insertion, but the first - stage recovery failed. Although still facing technical challenges, this means that the development of Chinese reusable rockets has entered the next stage of technical engineering verification.

Especially in key technical links such as "deep variable thrust and multiple ignition capabilities" and "attitude and navigation control", the Chinese commercial space industry is accelerating the conquest of these technical difficulties of reusable rockets.

At the beginning of June this year, the eighth successful launch of