Are egg farmers feigning poverty and consumers complaining about high prices – has the profit from egg price hikes simply vanished into thin air?
In the CPI of May, eggs were one of the few food items whose price increases were specifically mentioned.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in May, the price of eggs increased by 6.1%, contributing about 0.03 percentage points to the month - on - month increase in the CPI. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that since May, egg prices have been rising for five consecutive weeks. As of 14:00 on June 9th, the average price of eggs per kilogram in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 10.85 yuan, a 2.3% increase from the previous day.
This round of price increase was quickly felt at the consumer end. Many consumers and distributors mentioned that the purchase price of eggs has significantly increased.
The results of the price increase have also begun to show differences along the industrial chain.
Differences in the transmission speed of the same round of price increase
It's not hard to hear people in the vegetable market and on social platforms complaining that a tray of eggs has become a few yuan more expensive.
"The price has been rising every day recently," a consumer told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide. The price of a 30 - egg pack they often buy has risen from just over 20 yuan to nearly 30 yuan. Another consumer mentioned that the price of a whole box of eggs (usually 360 eggs, 12 trays per box) has risen from about 165 - 175 yuan to 225 - 245 yuan.
The owner of a bakery also told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide that they usually buy half - boxes of eggs. The price of 210 eggs has recently risen from 110 yuan to 150 yuan. It was as low as over 90 yuan before.
Breaking down the data, for household purchases of 30 - egg packs, the price has risen from 21 yuan to 27 yuan, that is, the price per egg has risen from 0.70 yuan to 0.90 yuan, an increase of about 29%.
In large - scale purchases, taking the median of the data from consumers who buy whole boxes, the price per egg has risen from about 0.47 yuan to about 0.65 yuan, an increase of about 38%.
In bakeries, the price per egg has risen from about 0.52 yuan to 0.71 yuan, an increase of about 36.4%.
The specifications and channels of these samples may not be exactly the same, so they cannot be directly used to represent the national price. But from the perspective of the price per egg, they point to a phenomenon:
In most cases, if only terminal merchants increase the price temporarily, large - scale purchases can usually reduce the price increase through volume discounts, long - term cooperation, and bargaining power. However, this round of egg price increase has entered the wholesale and procurement systems, indicating that the price increase has probably occurred at the more upstream origin price, which is an increase in the upstream benchmark price.
Some small B customers who originally enjoyed lower base prices have seen their price advantages compressed after the price increase, and the price increase for them is even greater.
To put it simply, for agricultural products like eggs with strong spot - market attributes, when the supply is tight, large - scale purchases may not necessarily result in stronger bargaining power. This round of cyclical price increase has a greater impact on the B - end.
Ou Fangxia, the chairman of Foshan Egg Warehouse, which is engaged in the fresh - egg supply chain, told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide that they purchase directly from farms. Since February and March, the price of a 360 - egg box has increased by about 100 yuan, a rise of about 30%. The B - end price has basically adjusted according to the market, while the retail end was able to absorb part of the price increase in the early stage, and the current increase is about 20%.
There isn't much buffer in the fresh - egg distribution channels. Ou Fangxia mentioned that the daily inventory cycle of fresh eggs is usually only two or three days. When the volume is large, they directly purchase and ship every day. When the price rises, distributors don't have enough low - price inventory to gradually absorb the increase; when the price drops, the inventory will affect the selling price.
Interestingly, not all eggs are increasing in price. Edible - raw eggs, ready - to - eat eggs, and fresh eggs of some leading brands have not fully adjusted their prices in sync with the market. These branded egg enterprises, which have established more complete industrial chains, are relatively less affected by spot - price fluctuations.
Take Huangtian'e for example. Its edible - raw egg business has long emphasized self - owned farming and full - industrial - chain management, and the egg supply mainly comes from its own system. The Red Meal Supply Chain Guide learned that the recent increase in the egg market price has not significantly affected Huangtian'e's terminal sales price, and its terminal price has basically remained unchanged.
Tian Min, the vice - president of Fengji Food Group, told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide that the industry was really struggling last year, but Huangtian'e's customer group is relatively stable. Therefore, it has not been disrupted by short - term market fluctuations. Its production capacity planning is more driven by the needs of partners and consumers, and the plan to replenish chicken flocks has been progressing in an orderly manner.
In his view, the advantages of the full - industrial - chain model are mainly reflected in quality, supply, and cost. Huangtian'e conducts full - link control from breeding chickens, feed to farming and processing. Its self - owned bases and deeply coordinated farming system can also avoid the disorder of production and sales plans caused by cyclical fluctuations. Its self - owned feed factory and centralized procurement can offset some costs when raw - material prices are high, preventing large fluctuations in customer prices.
This is also the difference between branded egg enterprises and small and medium - sized enterprises. Although they also face costs such as feed and labor, self - owned supply chains can reduce the direct impact of short - term fluctuations in external spot prices. They need to maintain a long - term price system and are less likely to adjust terminal prices based on short - term market conditions.
The price - transmission speed of ready - to - eat egg products is even slower.
Leader Fresh Food mainly produces ready - to - eat egg products such as soft - boiled eggs. Its CEO, Zhou Xiabiao, told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide that the company doesn't hold large - scale inventories. Its products are short - shelf - life and refrigerated, with a shelf - life of generally 1 - 2 months. After the price of raw eggs rises, the processing end needs to recalculate costs quickly. However, its products are mainly for B - end customers, and the pricing method is different from that of ordinary fresh eggs, so it can't adjust prices daily according to the market.
Looking upstream along this chain, the consumer end is just the place where the price change is felt later. The real reason for the egg price increase lies in the ever - fluctuating chicken cycle.
Fewer chickens replenished last year led to less egg supply this year
In 2025, egg - laying farmers had a tough time.
According to data from the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of eggs in the national market in 2025 was 9.25 yuan per kilogram, a 13.55% decrease from 2024. There were 11 months of losses throughout the year. Zhang Junmin, the chief scientist of the National Egg - laying Chicken Industry Technology System, also mentioned in a public analysis that due to continuous losses, farms and farmers accelerated the culling of egg - laying hens, and the willingness to replenish chicken flocks decreased significantly.
Losses won't immediately affect the price of eggs in consumers' hands. Instead, they will first change farmers' production - capacity decisions.
Zhou Xiabiao has long been in contact with upstream chicken farms. He told the Red Meal Supply Chain Guide that many chicken farms sold their chickens and waited last year because of the low unit price and long - term losses. Some farms reduced their chicken flocks by 300,000 or 500,000. When it came to supplying eggs this year, some of the original partner farms directly said that "there aren't enough chickens, so the egg supply can't keep up."
The problem in the egg - laying chicken industry is that production capacity won't recover immediately as the price rises. After chicken chicks are replenished, it takes more than 100 days for them to enter the egg - laying stage. The reduction in chicken - flock replenishment at the end of last year and the beginning of this year will result in a supply gap a few months later.
Yuan Zhengdong, the chief technology officer of Jidan Tang, gave a more specific judgment. He said that from August to October last year, the number of laying hens in production remained above 1.35 billion. By April this year, it had dropped to less than 1.3 billion, and in May, it was about 1.28 billion.
Another set of more critical data comes from the chicken - flock replenishment end: In March 2025, the monthly chicken - flock replenishment was about 95 million. After that, it declined all the way. By January this year, it dropped to more than 68 million, and in February, affected by the Spring Festival, it dropped to about 43 million. The laying hens entering the high - production stage in June basically correspond to the chickens replenished at the beginning of this year.
Egg supply is determined by both the number of laying hens and their production performance. After the number of laying hens decreased and the replenishment was low at the beginning of the year, the basic supply of eggs in the market will directly decline a few months later.
This explains why the price increase became more obvious in May and June. Eggs are a necessity, and consumption won't drop rapidly due to short - term price increases. A small decrease in supply often leads to a more significant price increase. Fresh eggs are difficult to store for a long time, and the distribution chain usually follows the market. Once the upstream production can't keep up, it will quickly be reflected in the wholesale and procurement ends.
Egg - laying performance was also affected during this period. After the end of April, China gradually entered the high - temperature season, and high temperatures affect the feed intake and egg - laying efficiency of chicken flocks. In Yuan Zhengdong's view, there have been three changes on the supply side: a decrease in quantity, a decline in production performance, and an aging chicken - flock structure.
High temperatures and holiday stocking have further widened this supply gap.
Before the Dragon Boat Festival, schools, food companies, and terminal channels all had stocking needs. The National Bureau of Statistics also mentioned in its interpretation of the May CPI that factors such as temporary supply shortages, a decline in egg - laying rates due to summer heat, and concentrated stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival drove the 6.1% increase in egg prices in May.
The distribution end has felt this change. Ou Fangxia said bluntly that the cold - stored eggs have basically been consumed, and the egg - laying volume of new chickens hasn't caught up after the old chickens were culled. The demand during the Dragon Boat Festival and the early pre - orders for mooncakes by food companies for the Mid - Autumn Festival have further exacerbated the supply - demand imbalance.
Putting this round of market conditions in the context of the egg - laying chicken cycle, it's not special.
Yuan Zhengdong believes that this round of price increase is still a normal cyclical fluctuation in production and operation. The core depends on the production - capacity structure and the chicken - flock structure: the number of new laying hens and the number of culled old hens ultimately determine whether the market supply increases or decreases.
Yuan Zhengdong's prediction for the future is not overly optimistic. He mentioned that from May to June this year, the number of newly hatched chicks has recovered to 85 - 86 million. In the next four to five months, production capacity will gradually return to a more normal state. As the Dragon Boat Festival stocking ends, the rapid price increase may slow down, and there may even be a temporary price correction.
Ou Fangxia and Zhou Xiabiao have the same view. They believe that the egg price may remain around the current level in the second half of the year, with a small room for correction. However, the change won't be significant. The price may still reach a high point around the Mid - Autumn Festival, and the fluctuations will probably continue after the festival.
Price increase, but making money isn't that easy
After the egg price increased, the situation for egg - laying farmers has improved slightly.
Last year, when there were losses, egg - laying farmers lost money on every kilogram of eggs sold. After the price increased this year, as long as they still have laying hens, their income will be much better than last year. Yuan Zhengdong also mentioned that after the egg price increase, life will be a little easier for production enterprises.
However, Tian Min believes that simply equating the egg - price increase with increased profits for farming enterprises is not entirely accurate. "This round of price increase is essentially a restorative rebound after the previous deep losses in the industry. Currently, feed costs are still high, and investments in environmental protection and biosecurity are also increasing continuously. For full - industrial - chain enterprises, profits need to be reinvested in product technology R & D, brand building, and supply - chain upgrading."
In fact, for farmers who culled old hens and reduced chicken - flock replenishment during the previous low - price cycle, it's difficult to immediately increase the supply even if they see the price rising. It takes time for the newly replenished chicken chicks to start laying eggs, and the recovery of production capacity can't keep up with the market changes.
After the price increase reaches the distribution end, it's difficult for profits to increase along with the egg price.
Foshan Egg Warehouse has basically adjusted its B - end quotes in line with the market. The retail end was able to absorb part of the price increase in the early stage, but it has also started to follow the price increase. However, the person in charge's profit forecast is not optimistic. They hope to "just avoid losses" this year.
Just because distributors can increase prices doesn't mean their profits will increase. After the egg price rises, the upstream purchase cost increases first, the value of each box of goods becomes higher, and the capital occupation also increases. The inventory cycle of fresh eggs is short, and the price changes every day. There isn't much room for distributors to operate between the purchase price and the selling price. The price increase will also reduce the customer's purchase volume. Ou Fangxia also mentioned that the recent purchase and sales volumes have both decreased.
The pressure on processing enterprises is more direct.
The raw - material price is quickly reflected in the cost, but it takes much longer to be reflected in the selling price. Zhou Xiabiao mentioned that raw eggs account for about 50% - 60% of Leader Fresh's overall cost. After this round of price increase, Leader Fresh's raw - material cost has increased by 10% - 30%.
This part of the cost has not been fully passed on to customers yet.
Leader Fresh usually locks in the price with customers for the whole year. Once the price is set, it's difficult to adjust it daily like ordinary fresh eggs. Zhou Xiabiao said that currently, the company is absorbing this change internally. Only if the fresh - egg price continues to rise will they consider adjusting the downstream selling price.
In fact, the pricing of such processed products doesn't just depend on the price of a single fresh egg. The costs of raw - material screening, processing, quality - control testing, and distribution channels are all included in the final price. Customers are also paying for breakage - rate control, food safety, and product - stability. Because the price structure is more complex, the price - adjustment rhythm of such products usually doesn't fully follow the fresh - egg market.
It's worth noting that after eggs enter the high - price cycle, the purchasing logic of downstream customers is also changing.
An counter - intuitive change is that, as Zhou Xiabiao mentioned, the higher the egg price, the more customers come to inquire about ready - to - eat eggs.
The reason is simple. The price of fresh eggs has increased. Although the original terminal price of ready - to - eat eggs was relatively higher, the price difference between the two has been compressed because the price - adjustment space for ready - to - eat eggs is smaller. In addition, ready - to - eat eggs are more stable in terms of breakage - rate control and food safety. After recalculating the cost, catering customers will find that the relative cost - effectiveness of ready - to - eat eggs has increased.
Ou Fangxia has also observed a similar change. After the general price increase, downstream customers in the same price range will be more inclined to choose eggs with more stable quality because stable quality can reduce losses.
In Tian Min's view, during the high - price cycle, downstream customers are most worried about supply disruptions and product - safety issues. Therefore, the stable supply capacity and quality - safety guarantee of partners are given higher priority, and price sensitivity decreases temporarily. More and more catering and retail customers are starting