Has NIO Stabilized After Burning Through 100 Billion in 8 Years?

If we talk about who in the automotive circle can burn the most money, it must be Li Bin.

He burned 100 billion in 8 years and only made a profit for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of this year, he achieved profitability again.

Then, BYD launched its flash charging technology at this time.

The media chased after Li Bin and repeatedly asked the same question: With the arrival of flash charging, is NIO really worried?

Is battery swapping a competitor to flash charging?

When many people see flash charging for the first time, their first reaction is: BYD is like the Li Jiaqi in the automotive circle, and NIO's prices are also going to be driven down.

My view may disappoint you. Flash charging won't have any impact on NIO for the time being.

Let me ask you a question first - do you know which NIO car sells the best now? That's right, it's the ES8. Its sales volume in the first quarter accounted for 54% of the total sales of its three major brands.

Data source: China Passenger Car Association

The price starts at 400,000 yuan. What do you think a person who is ready to spend 400,000 yuan to buy an ES8 values? It's the car - using experience and whether it's worth the premium.

Actually, BYD's flash charging targets users who are hesitating between fuel - powered cars and electric cars, those who are worried about slow charging and inconvenient use in winter. This battlefield doesn't overlap with the users of NIO ES8 at all.

Some people may say that it may not have much impact on the NIO brand, but it must have a significant impact on LeDao and Firefly, right?

Still, the impact may not be as big as you think. In the business world, the principle is "have what others don't have, and be better when others have it". In simple terms, BYD's flash charging is catching up with NIO's battery - swapping speed. BYD has achieved "having what others have". In the field of battery convenience, they are on par. The real anxious car - makers should be fuel - powered car companies and new - energy car companies without flash - charging technology.

Speaking of "being better when others have it", battery swapping has a core advantage that flash charging can never replace, which is the transfer of battery assets. When you buy a NIO car, you can choose not to buy the battery and rent it directly. Then all the risks such as battery aging, attenuation, and residual - value loss are borne by NIO.

How can Li Bin achieve his KPIs?

Since flash charging won't have a significant impact on NIO, why is Li Bin still under great pressure this year? Because NIO set a high goal this year. Investment banks mainly focus on three indicators: whether the delivery volume can reach 450,000 vehicles, whether the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle can be maintained at 16%, and whether the non - GAAP net profit can turn positive for the whole year.

Data source: Wind

To achieve these goals, Li Bin also has four aces up his sleeve.

The first card is to boost the gross profit margin with the ES9. NIO's gross profit margin of the whole vehicle in the first quarter of this year was 18.8%, reaching a four - year high.

Data source: NIO

The core support behind this is the good sales of high - priced cars like the ES8.

The newly launched NIO ES9 also has a clear mission: to enable NIO to maintain a high profit margin while increasing sales volume.

The second card is whether the LeDao L80 can succeed in increasing sales volume. In the first quarter of this year, the LeDao brand only accounted for 16% of the total delivery volume.

Data source: China Passenger Car Association

In NIO's long - term plan, LeDao should be the most promising brand. The sales - volume structure target for NIO, LeDao, and Firefly is 35%, 55%, and 10%. To achieve the 55% target, if calculated based on the target annual sales volume of 450,000 vehicles this year, the monthly sales volume of the LeDao brand needs to reach 20,000 vehicles.

Data source: Netcom News Agency

JPMorgan Chase directly describes the LeDao L80 as a "killer - level model". After all, only when LeDao's sales volume increases can there be enough users to swap batteries, and the battery - swapping stations can make a profit. So, the sales volume of the LeDao L80 in 2026 is also a main line that the capital market is very concerned about.

The third card is whether Firefly can open the door to the European market. In the first quarter of this year, the domestic sales volume of Firefly was only 11,000 units, but the mission of this small car can be said to be "the hope of the whole village for going global". Of course, it will take more time for the company to build overseas battery - swapping stations and sales networks.

The last and most important card is whether other car - makers will buy NIO's chips. Before NIO's self - developed chips were mass - produced, NIO spent hundreds of millions of dollars on purchasing chips from external suppliers such as NVIDIA every year. As we mentioned in the NVIDIA episode before, NVIDIA's gross profit margin can reach 75%. Isn't this brand premium too exaggerated?

After self - developing the Shenji chip, the relevant cost of chips per vehicle can be reduced by about 10,000 yuan. This is also the main reason why NIO's gross profit margin can climb to 18.8%. Of course, Li Bin's intention doesn't stop there. He also plans to spin off "Shenji" into an independent company to supply chips to other car - makers. This means that NIO's business model will extend from a "whole - vehicle manufacturer" to a "Tier 1 technology supplier".

Highlights of NIO in the second half of the year

Of course, in addition to increasing revenue, NIO also needs to cut costs to achieve annual profitability.

NIO achieved profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 because both the sales and management expenses and R & D expenses were lower than market expectations. By the first quarter of this year, the proportion of these two expenses in the total revenue had increased to some extent.

Data source: Wind

CFO Qu Yu once said that the quarterly R & D expenses in 2026 will be controlled between 2 and 2.5 billion yuan. The R & D expenses in the first quarter were about 1.9 billion yuan. It is expected that the proportion of R & D expenses in the total revenue will still increase slightly. In terms of sales expenses, the second quarter is the period when the products of NIO, LeDao, and Firefly are intensively launched, so the marketing investment will inevitably increase.

If the expense ratio rebounds, even if the gross profit margin is maintained, the net profit will be eroded. So next, in addition to the gross profit margin, we also need to look at these two ratios. Only when the ratios are low enough can the profitability be sustained.

In summary, in the short term, we should look at the sales volume of the NIO ES9 and the LeDao L80. If the ES9 sells well, NIO's gross profit margin can be maintained. If the L80 sells well, it means that the revenue will continue to grow rapidly. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the changes in the proportion of R & D expenses and sales expenses, which are the key indicators for NIO's subsequent sustainable profitability. In the long term, we should look at the overseas sales volume of Firefly and the number of external car - makers using the Shenji chip. These two are the key elements for building NIO's new growth curve.

Finally, let's do a small survey. If you want to buy a car, will you choose BYD or LeDao?

This article is from the WeChat official account “Autostinger” (ID: autostinger), author: Gao Yuhang, published by 36Kr with authorization.