Is Antarctic tourism losing its heat?

Antarctic tourism has always been regarded as the crown of the global tourism industry, known for its high prices and scarce experiences. However, in the past two years, the number of tourists to Antarctica has been on a continuous decline. What's going on?

Recently, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) quietly released the data on Antarctic tourists for the 2025 - 2026 operating season (from November to March of the following year). The total number was 113,500, a year - on - year decline of 4.2% compared to the previous year.

This is the second consecutive year of decline in the number of Antarctic tourists. Compared with the peak of 122,000 in the 2024 operating season, the cumulative decline is about 7%. What are the reasons for the decline?

Actually, it's not because of the global economic downturn and insufficient demand, nor because the wealthy are afraid to consume. Instead, the Antarctic tourism industry is undergoing a structural reform, eliminating the "low - end production capacity" and leaving high - profit products.

Before 2016, Antarctic tourism was a very niche project, with the number of tourists not exceeding 30,000 per year. After 2016, Antarctic tourism entered a stage of high - growth, rising steadily year by year. In 2020, the number reached 74,000, doubling that of 2016.

During the COVID - 19 pandemic, due to border controls and the suspension of shipping, Antarctic tourism shrank extremely for two years. As soon as it resumed in 2023, the number of tourists immediately soared to 105,000, far exceeding the pre - pandemic peak. In 2024, it soared to 122,000, setting a new historical high.

With 122,000 tourists a year, compared to before 2016, the number has almost increased by an order of magnitude.

Consequently, there have been various controversies and criticisms. Over - tourism, environmental pollution, biological invasion, and interference with penguin breeding... The scientific community, environmental protection organizations, and the mass media have all issued accusations, and many ordinary tourists have echoed, believing that the last pure land on Earth should not be damaged.

The management of Antarctica lies in the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), an inter - governmental organization. Under the pressure of public opinion and the public, the ATS is cautious about Antarctic tourism. At the 2024 Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, representatives from many countries emphasized the need to strengthen supervision of tourism activities and give more consideration to ecological pressure and biological safety.

The International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) is an association of Antarctic tourism operators operating under the guidance of the ATS. Its main members are shipping companies and polar tourism companies from various countries. IAATO interfaces with the management policies of the ATS at the upper level and is responsible for key resources such as ship scheduling and landing site arrangements at the lower level. It is a core player in the Antarctic tourism industry.

In the past, Antarctic tourism activities under the leadership of IAATO were generally self - regulated and self - managed by the industry. Now, the public sentiment triggered by the soaring number of Antarctic tourists has made the ATS feel "environmental protection anxiety". The policy - making level has started to discuss some restrictive measures, such as limiting the total number of tourists, implementing a quota system for landing sites, levying ecological fees, and even exploring the establishment of a specialized Antarctic tourism management department.

IAATO, which is used to industry self - regulation and self - management, definitely does not want the government to intervene in the actual management of Antarctic tourism activities. So what to do? IAATO came up with a radical solution.

On the one hand, IAATO no longer publicly releases data on Antarctic tourists. The previously regularly released data on Antarctic tourism is now made available upon application. Applicants need to fill in their affiliated units and the purpose of using the data, and the data will be sent privately after being reviewed by IAATO. By not releasing the data, it deprives environmental protection organizations and the media that criticize Antarctic tourism of ammunition, objectively cooling down the public sentiment.

On the other hand, it is the so - called "eliminating backward production capacity" mentioned above. What environmental protection organizations, the media, and government organizations are anxious about is the too - rapid growth of Antarctic tourists. By reducing the data, it can relieve the public's environmental protection anxiety and perhaps avoid being criticized by public sentiment and the resulting mandatory supervision.

IAATO's specific method is to keep large ships that only offer sightseeing but do not land away from Antarctica. These large ships have a low per - capita price and carry a large number of passengers. Cutting one large ship can free up space for several small boats. Moreover, most large ships use heavy fuel oil, which causes serious pollution.

In 2024, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced a policy banning the use of heavy fuel oil in Antarctic waters. In 2025, IAATO tightened the restrictions on cruises with more than 500 passengers visiting Antarctica. After a series of policies, large ships were forced to withdraw from the Antarctic market, and the number of tourists on pure cruise sightseeing trips was greatly reduced. In 2024, there were 43,000 tourists on pure cruise sightseeing trips, and in 2026, this number was only 27,000. This is the main reason for the decrease in the number of Antarctic tourists.

In contrast, tourists who land in Antarctica are the main contributors to the profits of Antarctic tourism. Landing in Antarctica requires taking small boats and must be accompanied by on - shore guides. It is a high - end product with a per - capita price 2 - 4 times that of cruise sightseeing. In 2024, the number of tourists landing in Antarctica was 78,000, and in 2026, this number climbed to 85,000.

Even more expensive are products that take tourists deep into the Antarctic interior. These products involve taking a plane to land in the Antarctic interior and are extremely high - end adventure - style tourism. The per - capita price exceeds $100,000. In 2024, 551 people consumed such products, and in 2026, the number soared to 1,106, reflecting the strong interest of the wealthy in Antarctica.

It can be seen that IAATO is playing a game of "sacrificing the pawn to save the rook". It has cut the number of pure cruise tourists while preserving the number of landing tourists. Although the data has been declining year by year on the surface, in fact, the overall environmental protection anxiety in Antarctica has not been alleviated much. A large number of small boats landing in Antarctica and a large number of tourists engaging in on - land activities in Antarctica bring far more environmental protection pressure than pure cruise tourists just having a distant look.

In the view of Zhiku Cultural and Tourism, the Antarctic tourism industry will be caught in a long - term tug - of - war between environmental protection anxiety and tourism business interests. Antarctica is a very special tourist destination. On the one hand, Antarctica is not a sovereign country and is jointly managed by 29 consultative countries. Many decisions are slow and it is almost impossible to establish an effective commercial tourism supervision system in a short time. On the other hand, the strong pressure of public opinion will cause IAATO and the commercial companies operating Antarctic tourism to continuously strengthen self - restraint and industry self - regulation to avoid further stimulating the public and triggering strong policy - level supervision.

These two long - term opposing and entangled forces will be the main theme of the Antarctic tourism industry in the next few years.

For Chinese tourists, inevitably, the price of Antarctic tourism will become more and more expensive in the future. IAATO and related tourism companies will use price to limit the growth of the number of Antarctic tourists. The era when one could take an Antarctic cruise for just a few thousand yuan is gone forever.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Zhiku Cultural and Tourism". Author: Wu Moyan. Republished by 36Kr with permission.