The "Age of Great Navigation" of China's New Energy Vehicles: Competition, Rooting, and Symbiosis
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first two months of 2026, China's automobile exports continued the previous strong growth trend. The cumulative export volume reached 1.352 million vehicles, a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4%. Among them, the export volume in February was 672,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, continuing to maintain a high - level operation. The performance of new energy vehicles was particularly outstanding. In the first two months of 2026, the export volume was 583,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 110%, accounting for more than 40%, becoming the core engine driving the growth of automobile exports.
Looking at the longer time - line, China's new energy vehicle export journey has already achieved a qualitative leap. From 2020 to 2025, the export scale of China's new energy vehicles soared from 223,000 to 2.615 million vehicles, more than 11 - fold growth in five years, marking a historical leap for China's new energy vehicles from trial exports to global layout.
According to the prediction of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile exports are expected to maintain steady growth. In the next few years, the export scale will exceed 10 million vehicles, and a global market worth trillions of yuan will be formed, with extremely broad growth space.
This huge market increment is driving more and more new energy vehicle manufacturers to elevate overseas expansion to the core development strategy and establish it as a necessary option for performance growth. A new game related to the reconstruction of the global automobile industry pattern, the competition for technological discourse power, and the reshaping of the global market position has already begun.
01. Competing for the Global Market
The upsurge of China's new energy vehicle exports is not accidental but an inevitable result of the combined effects of domestic industrial development, global market demand, and the policy environment.
From the perspective of domestic industrial development, in the first week of December 2025, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China exceeded 62.2% at one go, and remained above 60% throughout the month. With the domestic new energy vehicle market reaching the peak of growth and the stock competition becoming increasingly fierce, new energy vehicle manufacturers are forced to accelerate their layout in overseas markets to find a second growth curve to support long - term development.
From the perspective of global market demand, the world is currently in a critical period of energy transformation and upgrading of automobile consumption demand, providing broad market space and development opportunities for China's new energy vehicle exports. With the continuous promotion of the global "dual - carbon" goal, countries have intensively introduced industrial incentive policies to promote the accelerated transformation of the local automobile industry to electrification. For example, the German government recently officially announced a new round of new energy vehicle subsidy plan with a total scale of 3 billion euros, and Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers are also eligible for the subsidies.
The continuous release of policy dividends has provided many conveniences for new energy vehicle exports. In recent years, the state has introduced a series of policies to support new energy vehicle exports, including simplifying the export customs clearance process and increasing export credit support. The 2026 government work report clearly proposed to "guide the reasonable and orderly cross - border layout of the industrial chain and supply chain" and "improve the overseas comprehensive service system", providing policy guidance for new energy vehicle exports.
In the wave of new energy vehicle exports, leading vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, Chery Automobile, and SAIC Group, relying on their scale advantages and technological barriers, firmly occupy the first echelon of exports and dominate the market; traditional vehicle manufacturers such as Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor are accelerating their global strategic transformation, expanding their overseas market territory through local production and cross - border brand cooperation; new - force vehicle manufacturers such as XPeng Motors, NIO, and Li Auto are using their intelligent advantages as a breakthrough to gradually pry open and enter the overseas high - end market. New energy vehicle manufacturers in different echelons give full play to their respective strengths, jointly promoting China's new energy vehicle exports into a new stage of development.
In 2025, BYD achieved the goal of overseas sales exceeding one million vehicles for the first time, reaching 1.0496 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 145%, accounting for 22.81% of its total sales. On this basis, BYD has set an overseas sales target of 1.3 million vehicles for 2026, a year - on - year increase of 24.3%; SAIC Group has officially set an overseas sales target of 1.5 million vehicles for 2026, an increase of about 40% compared with the overseas sales of 1.071 million vehicles in 2025. To achieve this goal, SAIC Group will continue to rely on the "global + local" strategy to upgrade from product exports to value - chain exports.
Changan Automobile has set an overseas sales target of 750,000 vehicles for 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%, accounting for an estimated 23% of the total sales; Geely Automobile's overseas sales target for 2026 is 640,000 vehicles, expected to achieve a leap - forward growth of more than 50% compared with 2025, and the proportion of total sales will increase to 18.5%.
In 2025, Leapmotor became an outstanding player among new - force vehicle manufacturers with overseas sales of 67,000 vehicles. Its overseas sales target for 2026 is set to exceed 100,000 vehicles, planning to cover the European, Asia - Pacific, Middle East, African, and South American markets; XPeng Motors' overseas sales in 2025 were 45,000 vehicles. XPeng Motors Chairman He Xiaopeng clearly stated that the expected overseas sales in 2026 will double, which means its overseas sales target in 2026 is about 90,000 vehicles, entering the stage of large - scale production.
In contrast, NIO's overseas expansion pace is more prudent and conservative. NIO President Qin Lihong has clearly stated that the overseas sales target for 2026 is several thousand vehicles. The core goal of NIO's overseas expansion strategy is not to pursue sales scale, but to focus on "acting according to the situation and consolidating the foundation", building the initial sales and service capabilities, establishing initial user satisfaction, and the harvest period may still require several years of in - depth development and precipitation.
02. In - depth Localization Becomes the Consensus for Overseas Expansion
Comprehensively promoting in - depth local layout has become the core strategic consensus for China's new energy vehicle exports. New energy vehicle manufacturers will completely bid farewell to the traditional overseas expansion model of "domestic production, overseas sales" and truly integrate into the overseas market environment to achieve sustainable local development.
In terms of local production, 2026 will be a key node for the concentrated commissioning and expansion of overseas factories of new energy vehicle manufacturers. BYD's Hungarian factory is expected to be officially put into operation in the second quarter of 2026, with a long - term planned annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles; Great Wall Motor's second factory in Brazil is planned to have an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. After its completion, its annual production capacity in the Brazilian market will soar to 300,000 vehicles; multiple overseas bases such as Chery Automobile's Vietnam factory will be officially put into operation in 2026, and the production capacity layout in markets such as Indonesia and Mexico is also being continuously implemented. Industry institutions predict that the total production capacity of overseas production bases of Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers will exceed 2 million vehicles by the end of 2026.
In terms of local R & D, in 2026, new energy vehicle manufacturers will comprehensively increase the intensity of local R & D according to the regulatory requirements, climate characteristics, and consumption habits of different overseas markets: conduct exclusive product adaptation and compliance R & D for the Euro 7 emission standard, WLTP test regulations, and GDPR data security regulations in the European market; complete the exclusive optimization of the battery thermal management system for the high - temperature and high - humidity environment in the Southeast Asian market; promote the targeted development of the vehicle's sealing performance and air filtration system for the high - temperature and sandy environment in the Middle East market. In addition, Dongfeng Motor officially launched its styling design center in Munich, Germany, in January 2026, to conduct exclusive vehicle design according to the aesthetics and market needs of European users. BYD, SAIC Group, NIO, etc. are also simultaneously promoting the upgrading and improvement of the European R & D and design system.
In terms of local supply chain, in 2026, the local procurement rate target of new energy vehicle manufacturers in overseas core markets is generally increased to over 50%. For example, BYD's Hungarian factory aims for a local parts procurement rate of 50% in 2026, and the Brazilian factory plans to achieve 50% local parts procurement by the end of 2026; Changan Automobile's Thailand factory plans to achieve a localization rate of 90% in 2026, and the Vietnam factory aims for a localization rate of over 80% in 2026; the local procurement rate targets of Geely Automobile, Chery Automobile, etc. in the factories put into operation in Southeast Asia and Latin America are also over 50% in 2026. The in - depth localization of the supply chain can not only further reduce production and logistics costs and effectively avoid international trade tariff barriers but also drive the coordinated development of the local industrial chain, thus obtaining policy support from the local government and truly integrating into the local economic ecosystem for long - term development.
The in - depth local layout of production, R & D, and supply chain marks a qualitative change for Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers from product output to ecological integration. This wave of in - depth localization not only consolidates the core competitive barriers of China's new energy vehicles but also helps them enter a new era of taking root overseas.
03. Multiple Dilemmas Need to Be Overcome
Although China's new energy vehicle exports have achieved remarkable results, the escalation of global trade barriers, high compliance thresholds, and insufficient brand influence still pose many challenges and difficulties for new energy vehicle manufacturers.
The intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the rise of global trade protectionism are the biggest risks faced by China's new energy vehicle exports. The EU's anti - subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles is the most representative case of trade barriers. On October 29, 2024, the European Commission officially announced the final ruling of the anti - subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, deciding to impose a final anti - subsidy duty on imported electric vehicles originating from China for a period of five years starting from October 31. This typical trade protectionist act not only directly increases the compliance cost of China's new energy vehicle exports to Europe but also has a significant impact on the medium - and long - term strategic layout of new energy vehicle manufacturers in the European market.
The high threshold and high cost of global compliance are also major constraints for China's new energy vehicle exports. As global countries become more and more strict in the regulation of the new energy vehicle industry, compliance requirements in multiple dimensions such as vehicle safety, emission and environmental protection, data security, intellectual property rights, and labor rights are continuously increasing and nested. Any compliance omission in details may lead to project stagnation, forced product withdrawal from the market, and even administrative penalties and huge fines, becoming a highly lethal compliance minefield and fatal trap in the process of China's new energy vehicle exports.
Brand perception bias and lack of user trust are the most difficult challenges for China's new energy vehicle exports to overcome. Brand influence is one of the core decision - making factors for global consumers to purchase new energy vehicles. In the global mainstream markets, consumers still generally have a stereotypical impression of Chinese automobile brands as "low - price, low - quality", and their trust in Chinese automobile brands is far lower than that of international automobile brands such as BBA, Volkswagen, and Toyota. More importantly, the construction of the user trust system requires continuous resource investment and user word - of - mouth accumulation, so it is difficult to achieve a fundamental breakthrough in the short term.
China's new energy vehicle exports have fully entered the deep - water area, with both opportunities and challenges. In the long run, the trend of global new energy transformation is irreversible, and the prospects for overseas expansion are still broad. The ultimate goal of China's new energy vehicle globalization journey has never been one - way market conquest but to deeply integrate into the global market and become an important participant and leader in the global automobile industry transformation.
This article is from the WeChat official account “DoNews” (ID: ilovedonews). Author: Zhang Yu, Editor: Yang Bocheng. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.