The risk of "walking on one leg" behind NIO's Q4 profitability
After 11 years of operation, NIO has finally started to make a profit.
The financial performance report for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025 recently released by NIO shows that the total revenue, delivery volume, and gross profit all reached record highs. In particular, the operating profit after deducting equity incentives in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.25 billion yuan, marking NIO's first quarterly profit.
Picture/Source of NIO's operating profit in Q4 2025/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
Li Bin, the chairman of NIO, believes that the quarterly profit fully confirms the core competitiveness of NIO's technology roadmap, products, and business model, and also reflects the continuous improvement of NIO's systematic capabilities and operational efficiency.
We have no doubt about NIO's growth and the strategic significance of this profit for NIO. However, regarding the profit in the fourth quarter, it seems more like "profit for the sake of profit", with insufficient data quality and questionable sustainability.
Why do we say so?
Li Bin once put forward three core conditions for quarterly profit, namely monthly sales of over 50,000 units, an overall gross profit margin of 17 - 18%, and precise control of the expense ratio.
Looking back at the financial report, NIO delivered 124,800 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, which did not reach the theoretical threshold of 150,000 units. Combined with Li Bin's public statement that "there were no new cars and no R & D expenses in the fourth quarter, and all the spending was completed in the third quarter (the NIO Day event, usually held in the fourth quarter, was moved to the third quarter)", it can be seen that NIO's profit mainly depends on the increase in gross profit margin (the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle is 18.1%) and the extraordinary reduction of expenses, rather than the natural spill - over of the scale effect.
It may not be difficult to achieve a single - time profit, but the difficult part is to make profit a normal state. If NIO can achieve the goal of "full - year profit in 2026", then it will truly stand firm.
01 A Milestone "Stop - Loss"
Undoubtedly, this financial report is the most impressive one in NIO's history and is worthy of being recorded in NIO's annals.
Data shows that NIO's total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 34.65 billion yuan. This figure not only increased by 75.9% year - on - year but also soared by 59% quarter - on - quarter, setting a new record for the highest single - quarter revenue since NIO's establishment.
Along with the leap - forward growth of revenue, NIO's delivery scale also achieved a milestone breakthrough. The delivery volume in the fourth quarter was 124,807 units, soaring by 71.7% year - on - year and surging by 43.3% quarter - on - quarter, also setting a new record for the highest single - quarter delivery volume in history.
Driven by the strong scale effect, the profit quality of NIO achieved a qualitative leap. The total gross profit in this quarter reached 6.074 billion yuan, skyrocketing by 163.1% year - on - year and doubling quarter - on - quarter, with an increase of 100.8%.
Picture/Source of NIO's revenue in Q4 2025/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
Most importantly, NIO's comprehensive gross profit margin recovered to 17.5%, and the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle rebounded strongly to 18.1%, reaching a new high in the past three years, indicating the strong premium ability brought by the high - end product cycle.
Picture/Source of NIO's gross profit margin in Q4 2025/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
Thanks to the resonance of the "three highs" of revenue, delivery volume, and total gross profit, NIO achieved a net profit of 283 million yuan and an operating profit of 1.25 billion yuan in this quarter. This result is a dramatic reversal compared with the huge single - quarter loss of 7.11 billion yuan in the same period last year, and it also completely reversed the loss of about 1.9 billion yuan in the previous quarter, marking NIO's historic leap from "burning money" to "self - financing".
In 2025, NIO delivered a total of 326,000 new vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.9%; the total annual revenue was 87.488 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%; the net loss was 14.943 billion yuan, a year - on - year narrowing of 33.3%; the operating loss was 14.041 billion yuan, a year - on - year narrowing of 35.8%.
Picture/Partial data of NIO's 2025 financial report/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
As of December 31, 2025, NIO's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short - term investments, and long - term time deposits totaled 45.9 billion yuan, which laid a solid financial foundation for its future continuous expansion.
Picture/Source of NIO's cash reserve in Q4 2025/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
The core driving force behind NIO's milestone stop - loss is the perfect resonance of the "cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement" strategy and the "high - end product cycle".
First of all, NIO demonstrated unprecedented operational discipline in 2025. By optimizing the organizational structure, improving R & D efficiency, and precisely controlling marketing expenses, it compressed the period expense ratio to a record low.
In particular, moving the asset - heavy NIO Day to the third quarter in advance, this refined financial operation directly relieved the burden on the profit statement in the fourth quarter, reflecting the management's extreme pursuit of the profit target.
Secondly, the outbreak of the high - end product cycle provided a strong profit engine. With the higher price, better configuration structure of the new NIO ES8 and the adjustment of the BaaS policy, the profit contribution per vehicle of the new ES8 far exceeded market expectations, becoming the core engine to drive up the overall gross profit.
It also proves that NIO's brand moat in the high - end market above 300,000 yuan is still solid and has a strong premium ability.
02 "Cracks" under the Prosperity
Under the seemingly prosperous appearance of NIO's main brand advancing vigorously with the new ES8 and the excellent financial report, an undercurrent has been surging.
The sub - brand strategy that NIO placed high hopes on is showing signs of "starting strong but ending weak". At the beginning of their launch, LeDao and Firefly detonated the market with their competitive prices. However, by the end of 2025, this momentum suddenly stopped.
In particular, LeDao L90, which was regarded as the main volume - driving model, gradually "disappeared" in the market's expectations. It failed to take over as expected, become the sales pillar of NIO, and effectively share the heavy responsibility of revenue growth borne by the ES8.
At the beginning of 2026, the monthly sales volume of LeDao even dropped to the range of 3,000 - 4,000 units. This cliff - like cooling makes people have to re - examine its market positioning and product strength. Meanwhile, Firefly has also fallen into a similar bottleneck, with weak growth after the initial outbreak.
Picture/Sales volume of LeDao L90 in the past 7 months/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
This raises a sharp and cruel question: If we strip away the high - gross - profit blood transfusion brought by the high - end premium of the main brand ES8, can the monthly sales volume of only a few thousand units of these two sub - brands currently support NIO's huge R & D system, service system, and hundreds of millions of operating expenses? The answer is probably no. The "stall" of the sub - brands has caused obvious loosening in NIO's multi - brand pyramid structure.
Another crack is hidden in the "battery - swapping alliance" that was once depicted as a grand blueprint.
Two years ago, leading automakers such as Changan, Geely, and Chery announced their participation in NIO's battery - swapping camp, making a great fanfare. It seemed that the battery - swapping standard would unify the world overnight.
Picture/Cooperating enterprises of NIO's battery - swapping alliance/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
However, after the whole year of 2025, the reality is extremely harsh: Except for NIO's own vehicles, it is almost impossible to see vehicles of other alliance members entering the battery - swapping stations for energy replenishment on the road. The so - called "sharing of ten thousand stations" is more like a much - ado - about - nothing one - man show at present.
The delay in the launch of the cooperation models of major automakers seems to be due to technical adaptation on the surface, but in fact, it is the difficulty of standard unification and the pain of interest game at a deeper level. Battery specifications, chassis architecture, and settlement systems are all insurmountable obstacles. Each automaker wants to enjoy the convenience of battery - swapping but is reluctant to hand over its core lifeline to others, resulting in a difficult cooperation process.
The final result is that NIO is still "walking alone", bearing the heavy investment in building and maintaining a large - scale battery - swapping network by itself, while the vehicles of its allies have not been able to convert into actual battery - swapping traffic. This "loner" dilemma not only drags down the capital turnover efficiency but also greatly reduces the social value of the battery - swapping network.
Amid the cheers of the profitable financial report, the weakness of the sub - brands and the false boom of the battery - swapping alliance constitute the most real hidden worries under NIO's prosperous appearance.
03 A Race Against Time in 2026
How to solve the problems? NIO's answer is clear and practical: It's better to rely on oneself than on others. Return to the essence of business and sell more cars. Whether it's the main brand NIO or the sub - brands LeDao and Firefly, in the current market environment, the only right way is to exchange sales volume for real - money benefits.
In fact, NIO has keenly found a second moat besides the battery - swapping stations, which is to firmly "sell large - sized cars". In the words of NIO's CFO Qu Yu, "Large - sized cars have a higher gross profit and stronger risk - resistance ability."
Moreover, NIO has tasted the sweetness of selling large - sized cars and knows well how to sell them well.
From Li Bin's speech at the earnings conference call, we can confirm that the "Five Tiger Generals" that NIO relies on to achieve the full - year profit target in 2026 are three new models, namely NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and LeDao L80, plus the currently hot - selling NIO ES8 and LeDao L90.
It is reported that the NIO ES9 will be launched in the second quarter. It almost absorbs all the core technologies of the flagship sedan ET9. Under the BaaS model, it is expected to enter the price range of 400,000 - 450,000 yuan and is expected to replicate the success of the ES8.
Picture/NIO ES9/Screenshot from Internet's New Energy View
The ES7 to be released in the third quarter can be simply understood as a five - seat version of the ES8 based on the new ES8 platform.
The upcoming LeDao L80 is a five - seat version of the "LeDao L90", which may precisely activate the incremental market in the 200,000 - 250,000 yuan range with a lower threshold.
