Li Bin of NIO bets on a "bet" worth hundreds of billions in market value

For 11 years since its establishment, NIO has often become the center of topics and been criticized by the outside world for "losses", "burning money", and "when it will turn a profit". There are even more people in the secondary market who are dissatisfied with NIO's continuous losses.

This time, NIO finally got a chance to feel proud.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO achieved single - quarter profitability for the first time. Li Bin, the founder, fulfilled the military order he made a year ago as scheduled, triggering a frenzy in the capital market.

After the release of the financial report, the cumulative increase of NIO's US stocks exceeded 25% within three days, with a single - day maximum increase of 15.18%; the Hong Kong stocks (09866.HK) also rose in tandem, with a single - day increase once exceeding 16%. The market expressed its recognition of NIO's turnaround from losses to profits with real money.

Meanwhile, another piece of news caught the market's attention.

On the day the financial report was released, NIO disclosed a long - term equity incentive plan for Li Bin - granting 248 million restricted shares of the company to Li Bin, divided into ten equal batches.

(Source: Financial report)

The unlocking conditions are deeply tied to the company's market value and net profit - only when the market value successively breaks through $30 billion, $50 billion, $80 billion, $100 billion, and even $120 billion can the corresponding batches of stocks be vested.

This is regarded by the industry as a disguised "billion - dollar gambling agreement". The signal released by this "gambling agreement" spanning twelve years is far more complex than a financial report.

Is the single - quarter profitability due to luck or strength? What makes Li Bin believe that he can lead NIO to a market value of over $100 billion?

Li Bin Fulfills the Military Order, NIO "Makes a Comeback"

In March 2025, the news that Li Bin made a military order to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of that year spread widely. At that time, NIO was deeply in huge losses, and there were continuous doubts from the market. On March 10, 2026, the latest financial report data of NIO gave the answer.

(Screenshot of media report)

The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO achieved an operating profit of 807 million yuan and a net profit of 283 million yuan - this is the first single - quarter profitability recorded since the company was established 11 years ago.

The capital market quickly gave a positive feedback: after the release of the financial report, NIO's US stocks rose 15.18%, and the Hong Kong stocks once soared by more than 16% during intraday trading the next day. The market value returned above HK$100 billion, hitting a new high since 2026.

Is NIO's "comeback" and single - quarter profitability due to luck or strength?

This profitability is not due to luck, but the result of the combined effects of sales growth, product structure optimization, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

First, the delivery volume reached a new high. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of NIO cars reached 124,800 units, a year - on - year increase of 71.7% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 43.3%, setting a new historical high. The annual delivery volume was 326,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 46.9%, also setting a new high. The scale effect was released, diluting the fixed costs.

Second, the product structure was optimized, and multiple brands collaborated to cover different markets, driving sales growth. The collaboration of the three brands NIO, LeDao, and YingHuoChong enabled the Q4 delivery volume to reach a historical high of 124,800 units. Among them, the delivery performance of the NIO ES8 refreshed the single - month delivery record for models above 400,000 yuan; the LeDao L90 became the sales champion of pure - electric large SUVs in 2025; YingHuoChong remained in the leading position in the high - end small - car market.

The sales scale is the foundation, and it is the growth of profitability that really enables NIO to "make a comeback".

In Q4 2025, NIO's gross profit margin for the whole vehicle reached 18.1%, 5 percentage points higher than 13.1% in the same period of 2024 and 3.4 percentage points higher than 14.7% in Q3 2025.

The hot sales of high - margin models improved NIO's profitability. In December 2025, the NIO ES8 achieved a single - month delivery of 22,256 units, accounting for nearly 70% of the NIO brand's sales, with a gross profit margin of 20%. In the fourth quarter, about 39,700 ES8s were delivered, accounting for 31.8% of the total delivery volume, and the gross profit margin was closer to 25%.

The sub - brands LeDao and YingHuoChong also began to contribute to the increment. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the LeDao brand delivered 38,300 units, and YingHuoChong delivered 19,100 units. The multi - brand layout not only expanded the sales coverage but also began to support the revenue and gross profit.

Finally, cost reduction and efficiency improvement. In the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO's R & D expenses were 2.026 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 44.3%. The R & D expense ratio dropped from 26.43% in the first quarter to 5.83% in the fourth quarter; the sales and administrative expenses were 3.537 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%, and the marketing expense ratio dropped from 36.58% to 10.22%.

(Source: Financial report)

Meanwhile, NIO replaced the NVIDIA Orin - X chip with its self - developed chip "Shenji NX9031" to optimize the cost per vehicle.

Signing Another Billion - Dollar "Gambling Agreement", Is It "Drawing a Pie" or "Sure to Achieve"?

On the same day the financial report was released, NIO's board of directors approved a share incentive plan for Li Bin: about 248 million restricted shares were granted, to be vested in ten batches. The vesting conditions are linked to specific performance targets of the company's market value and net profit. This is regarded by the industry as a disguised "billion - dollar gambling agreement".

What information does this "gambling agreement" release? Is it "drawing a pie" or "sure to achieve"?

First, the interests of shareholders and management are deeply tied: The management is deeply tied to the company's future, and their interests are highly consistent. This means that only by creating huge shareholder value can they benefit themselves.

Second, the company's long - term strategic goals are clarified: The unlocking conditions of this share incentive plan are very strict, directly linked to the market value (breaking through $120 billion) and net profit (currently in the range of $1.5 billion - $6 billion). This means that NIO is no longer satisfied with short - term profitability but has established a long - term ambition to become a global technology car company.

Finally, it boosts investors' confidence. The company's long - term losses and multiple survival crises have caused dissatisfaction among investors. As the soul figure of NIO, Li Bin also tries to tell investors through this move that NIO's market value is seriously underestimated. Li Bin tries to use the long - termism story to reunite the confidence of the capital market and attract long - term funds.

What makes Li Bin believe in himself? Where does his confidence come from? How likely is NIO's market value to break through $100 billion?

In the development history of NIO, Li Bin has always been able to obtain investments at critical historical moments of the company's development and lead the company to grow and expand. In the global capital investment winter, why can Li Bin be favored by investors from all over the world? I think it's not just about Li Bin's personal charm, but more about the company's financial indicators.

The single - quarter profitability proves that NIO has the ability to turn losses into profits, but whether the profitability can be sustained faces multiple challenges. Judging from the annual performance, NIO has not yet emerged from the quagmire of losses. Based on the current stock price, NIO's US stock market value is still in the tens of billions of dollars, with more than ten times the growth space from the target of $120 billion. The probability of achieving this goal is very small, and it needs to make a leap from an "automobile company" to a "technology and energy giant".

First, NIO needs to achieve sustainable growth in sales and profitability.

In Q4 2025, NIO achieved single - quarter profitability, opening up the space for re - evaluation of its valuation. However, to support a market value of $100 billion, it needs to achieve continuous annual profitability and prove that the profit growth is predictable.

Not to mention the huge challenge of a $100 - billion market value, for NIO, which had an annual net loss of 14.9 billion yuan in 2025, achieving "Non - GAAP annual profitability" in 2026 is already a daunting task.

From the external environment, the competition in the new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly fierce; on the policy side, the further reduction of subsidy policies puts pressure on the gross profit margin; on the cost side, the raw material prices are rising, bringing "huge pressure" to cost control and gross profit margin.

The annual delivery volume in 2025 was 326,000 units. At present, NIO's three - brand matrix has taken initial shape. The NIO brand adheres to the high - end market, the LeDao brand focuses on the family market, and the YingHuoChong brand covers the small - car market. It is not easy for the future market penetration rate to support an annual sales scale of one million units.

What NIO is currently facing is how to transform "quarterly profitability" into "sustained profitability".

The financial structure also needs attention. As of the end of 2025, NIO's current liabilities were 78.58 billion yuan, exceeding its current assets of 76.63 billion yuan. Although the company believes that the existing funds are sufficient to support its operations in the next 12 months, the liquidity pressure has not been completely eliminated. The annual net loss still reached 14.943 billion yuan. To achieve the goal of Non - GAAP annual profitability in 2026, continuous verification is still needed.

Second, can the value release of the battery - swapping ecosystem help the company complete the transformation of the valuation logic? Whether the battery - swapping business can achieve full - scale socialized operation and successfully transform the battery - swapping network into a stable cash flow determines the transformation of the company's future valuation logic from "manufacturing" to "platform".

In 2025, NIO's service and community business revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan and achieved profitability. Qu Yu expects that even if 1,000 new battery - swapping stations are added in 2026, the profitability of this business will continue to improve. The transformation of the energy - replenishment network from a cost center to a profit center is expected to provide new support for the valuation.

Finally, the commercialization of full - stack self - developed technology. The external software subscription revenue brought by intelligent driving algorithms and self - developed chips can help the company open up a larger incremental space, but the revenue contribution needs to be significantly increased in the revenue proportion.

NIO's self - developed advanced intelligent driving chip "Shenji NX9031" has been authorizing its technology externally since last November, with a cumulative shipment of more than 150,000 sets. The chip subsidiary Shenji completed its first - round financing of more than 2.2 billion yuan, and its post - investment valuation is nearly 10 billion yuan. The independent operation of Shenji has opened up the imagination space for external empowerment. How large the future market can be remains to be seen.

NIO's story is no longer just about car - making, but a comprehensive competition about technology routes, business models, ecological construction, and entrepreneurial will. The market will wait and see what kind of ending Li Bin and NIO will have.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Different View Finance" (ID: DifferentFin), written by Yechaxuebai, and is published by 36Kr with authorization.