Toyota goes left, while Honda goes right.

In the two weeks after the Spring Festival, the Chinese automotive industry has been in the thick of a fierce battle. Just the scramble for pricing power has set the entire industry ablaze. Between joint - venture and domestic brands, as well as new energy and traditional fuel - powered vehicles, the question of who will dominate the future has become the main theme of the whole year.

Among them, compared with Chinese automakers' renewed all - out offensive in the market, the joint - venture brands, which have always shown an air of superiority, are likely to attract more attention during this extraordinary period. After all, in terms of topicality, events with a greater sense of contrast always tend to dominate public opinion.

After experiencing several situations where they were left defenseless by Chinese enterprises, it's not surprising that some people hope to see them make more blunders. However, as the industry's transformation progresses in an orderly manner today and is no longer as impetuous as before, we should also believe that there are still people who are willing and looking forward to seeing new stories unfold for these brands.

The top leaders of the Chinese regions of BBA have all been replaced, indicating that there will be major adjustments to the survival strategies of luxury brands in China. On the other hand, when Toyota, General Motors, and Nissan have successively humbled themselves and shown pricing sincerity to face Chinese consumers directly, one can't help but feel that the old and new eras are being clearly demarcated.

Recently, topics related to the new energy industry have remained a focus of people's attention. However, in the joint - venture camp, unlike Toyota and others, Honda's lack or lag in future planning has shown an increasingly strong sense of contrast.

This year is the most important year for the internal construction of Lexus' Jinshan factory after its topping - out. It is also the first year for Toyota to test the industrial transformation ability of its new president, and a decisive year for Toyota's joint - venture companies in China to completely change their weak positions.

In contrast, Honda has to sell back the electric vehicles produced in China to Japan to digest the excess production capacity. Although it is one of the three major Japanese brands with a strong consumer base, 2026 may be its most difficult year. Without new products and with the restructuring of its new energy strategy, Honda is under heavy pressure.

Toyota's Two - Pronged Approach

Before the Spring Festival, regardless of the outcome, the limited - edition sales of the Fit once again earned Honda a wave of attention in the public opinion field. At the beginning of this year, when Honda actively introduced a new pricing system for its Accord, Crown Road, and Odyssey models, it also added fuel to the brand's exposure. However, compared with the actions of its competitors, all these are just basic operations to leverage the market.

Facing the stagnant situation in 2026, every automaker urgently needs to take drastic measures. After the Spring Festival, the joint - venture brands were the first to sound the horn of the price war, which was quite appropriate. Undoubtedly, this is just a signal for the start of a new battle.

In February, Toyota Motor announced a major personnel adjustment: 57 - year - old Chief Financial Officer Kenta Chika will be promoted to President and CEO, and the former President Koji Sato will be transferred to Vice - Chairman and Chief Industry Officer. Behind this leadership change is the severe situation where Toyota's net profit in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 plummeted by 43% year - on - year. However, this has also forced Toyota to include "China Priority" in its global KPIs to initiate a deep - rooted localization self - revolution.

At the end of March, the bZ7, a strategic new vehicle for GAC Toyota's electrification transformation, will be officially launched for sale.

If measured solely by the pre - sale price of this vehicle at the beginning of this month, the new car is bound to become a key touchpoint for Toyota's development in the Chinese new energy vehicle market in 2026. Moreover, from the bZ3X to the bZ7, if the market performance can be well - connected at a high level, it will be sufficient to outline an orderly and promising new path for the future development of the entire joint - venture camp in China.

In the past two years, Toyota has quietly merged its R & D institutions in China. For the first time, the Chinese team has full decision - making power over styling, configuration, and pricing. The development cycle has been compressed from 48 months to 28 months, and the localization rate of components has been maximally increased, resulting in continuous cost reduction. The direct result of this transformation is that GAC Toyota's bZ3X won the sales championship among joint - venture pure - electric single - models in 2025.

Similarly, in 2025, after initial market trials, the dawn - breaking power brought by new models such as Dongfeng Nissan's N7/N6, Buick's Zhijing L7, and Mazda's EZ - 60 was clearly in the public eye. However, compared with the progress from 0 to 1, the further advancement starting from 1 is undoubtedly much more difficult.

As a leading brand in the joint - venture camp, Volkswagen has gradually reached this point through trial - and - error, but it is still in a very early stage. This clearly shows that 2026 will be the first year for it to modify and implement its electrification strategy. In this context, Toyota's actions have become the focus of everyone's attention.

What has the appearance of the bZ7 changed? After a year of development, the change in the terminal market's perception of Toyota is undoubtedly the most anticipated thing. When everyone's attention is focused on Chinese brands and people think that joint - venture brands have no future, Toyota's ability to break through the market shackles in its own way is extremely inspiring in this era.

The bZ7 and the bZ3X form a coordinated high - low positioning to jointly compete for the top position among joint - venture new energy brands. Furthermore, the plans for the extended - range versions of the Highlander and Sienna are a precise response to the real pain points of family users.

Maintaining Toyota's own manufacturing system, comprehensively cooperating with Chinese enterprises in technology, and leaving product definition to the Chinese team as much as possible, this seemingly fragmented model would have made people think either Toyota or the Chinese side of the joint - venture had gone crazy a few years ago. However, today, reality has taught the entire industry a lesson.

In addition, we have always believed that the deep - rooted brand premium, which brings development resistance to the entire enterprise, is still a major obstacle in the development of joint - venture brands.

In the past two years, perhaps due to the complete disappearance of past dividends, joint - venture enterprises have generally realized that continuing like this is not an option. In terms of measures, starting from changing the main R & D base for electric vehicles, everyone has chosen to define products in China.

However, to be honest, it is still far from enough to truly test the determination of joint - venture enterprises based on just one year (2025) and one or two products. Until GAC Toyota set a pre - sale price for the bZ7 close to that of the Camry.

In an era when the size of new cars is constantly increasing, the product definition of the bZ7 is clearly tailored for the Chinese market. A pure - electric sedan in the 200,000 - yuan range with a size comparable to that of a past D - class sedan is extremely rare in the product system of any joint - venture brand. Not to mention that the usually cautious Japanese automakers would introduce a larger - sized product at the same price to participate in the competition before the decline of fuel - powered B - class sedans.

However, today, as the decision - making power in the market is firmly in the hands of Chinese automakers, no amount of caution can withstand the pressure of survival. Is it Toyota's forward - looking thinking guiding this? Not entirely.

In China, when the entire industry is breaking free from shackles and running forward, Toyota seems to have chosen an uncharted path. In fact, when Honda, also a Japanese enterprise, has struggled without achieving much, being radical sometimes means winning the market. Toyota hopes to maintain its scale through extreme localization and its profits through high - end electrification, advancing on both fronts simultaneously and leaving no gap for competitors to "exchange low prices for market share".

Honda's Helplessness

Japanese automakers have never been the ones to actively engage in corporate reform. Before a foolproof plan emerges, relying on experience is the best approach. This is the reason why in the past two years, only Honda has shown a huge gap from Toyota and Nissan in terms of both sales and product planning.

Recall what Honda was doing before canceling the mass - production project of the Ye GT?

Relying on its long - standing good user reputation, it sold new energy vehicles converted from fuel - powered ones. The implementation of its electrification strategy has always been marked by strong brand paranoia. How many people today can truly recognize the e:N and Ye series? In terms of products, it would rather spend a huge amount on independent R & D than cooperate with the outside world. It always assumes that Chinese consumers don't understand cars and that in the face of driving pleasure, things like human - machine interaction and advanced intelligent driving are unimportant.

Of course, reality soon gave Honda a heavy blow. In 2025, against the backdrop of a sharp decline in sales, shrinking user reputation, and setbacks in corporate transformation, Honda became the most affected among all first - tier joint - venture enterprises.

In 2026, with Toyota making smooth progress in electrification, Honda's sense of desolation has become more palpable. From the existing information, Honda's next move is still unclear. Apart from making some adjustments in price and marketing for existing products, more developments will have to wait until 2027 when it introduces its new electrified products to the public.

During this period, will Honda's sales continue to decline, or will it continue to lose its existing customers? There's no need to elaborate further.

Regarding this year's market, almost everyone in the industry has reached a consensus that it will definitely not be better than last year. This means that any misstep by joint - venture enterprises will be infinitely magnified by the market, and vice versa.

Compared with Toyota, Honda will definitely have a tough time in 2026. What's even more difficult is that when all the surviving leading joint - venture automakers regard 2026 as a crucial year for the further implementation of their electrification strategies, even just watching quietly on the sidelines will be a kind of torture. Holding their ground will be a tough battle.

"The Chinese team lacks autonomy."

Those familiar with Honda know that compared with Toyota and Nissan, Honda is just so stubborn. When Toyota implemented the RCE system (China Chief Engineer) and transferred the vehicle development power to the Chinese team, and Nissan also introduced the "Glocal" (Global - Localization) new model by delegating product definition and R & D decision - making power to the Chinese team, Honda still maintains a model where it relies on long - term imports of core components from Japan and the Chinese team has limited R & D authority. The result is predictable.

After the official launch of the bZ7, the market is likely to give Toyota another relatively positive feedback. Maybe the sales growth won't be as rapid as that of the bZ3X, which dominated the 100,000 - yuan pure - electric SUV market last year, but the image change brought by this vehicle will definitely be very positive.

When "Electric Toyota" is recognized by Chinese consumers, joint - venture enterprises including Nissan and General Motors can also take advantage of this momentum to pave the way for their own transformation and no longer worry excessively about unfounded doubts.

In the Chinese automotive market in 2026, the electrification penetration rate has exceeded 55%, and the intelligentization penetration rate is approaching 40%. In this largest and most competitive automotive market in the world, the two Japanese automotive giants, Toyota and Honda, which used to fight side by side, are now heading towards completely different crossroads of fate. One is on the offensive, the other is on the defensive; one is deeply involved, the other is still groping. Their fates will write the most real footnote for the joint - venture era of the Chinese automotive industry.

For Honda, 2026 is ultimately more like a "last - ditch battle" year of life and death. The company must find its position and start anew. The outcome of life and death will be decided this year. Honda must understand that when the wave of electrification sweeps across everything, only those enterprises that truly humble themselves, integrate into the local market, and respect market rules can find their way out in this once - in - a - century great change.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Automobile Commune" (ID: iAUTO2010), author: Cao Jiadong, published by 36Kr with authorization.