In 2026, none of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto is having an easy time.

"After more than a decade of establishment, the three new - force automakers, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto, still need to consider how to survive and how to stay in the game. To be honest, it's a bit ironic. Building cars is really not easy. The Chinese auto market is a place of both heaven and hell."

These days, when chatting with a friend, he suddenly made the above - mentioned remarks at the beginning.

I deeply agree with him. Especially after seeing the terminal sales reports of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto in February, their situations can only be described as "each family has its own hard - to - read scriptures".

The decline of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy, the impact of the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, the price war reignited by joint - venture brands, the intensifying siege by tech giants led by Huawei and Xiaomi, the fierce competition from traditional independent automakers such as BYD and Geely, and the rapid increase in the cost of core raw materials. Each of these factors is enough to give NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto a hard time.

In the following part, I'd like to talk about what exactly I'm worried about regarding them. Although just looking at their annual sales targets for 2026, all of them are ready to make a big fight, and they have also prepared enough products. However, the story may not go as smoothly as expected.

The title of today's article is not alarmist. To win the cruel battle that has already begun, whoever it is has to be determined to fight to the death.

Of course, it also continues to test the leadership abilities of Li Bin, He Xiaopeng, and Li Xiang.

NIO Urgently Needs the Next ES8

In February, NIO delivered a total of 20,797 new vehicles.

Among them, more than half came from the new ES8. If divided by brand, NIO delivered 15,159 new vehicles, Le Dao delivered 2,981 new vehicles, and Firefly delivered 2,657 new vehicles.

May I ask, how do you feel about the above performance? My answer is, "There is still a long way to go."

On the evening of the Lantern Festival, Li Bin didn't have time to enjoy the full moon. Instead, he sat in front of the camera for a live - stream. He invited many senior executives including Qin Lihong, Shen Fei, Jin Ge, Li Tianshu, and Yang Bo.

The intention was very straightforward: Besides sharing the user travel data during the Spring Festival holiday, it was also an external announcement of how NIO would operate in 2026.

Regarding NIO, the "5566" models will have annual upgrades, adding options such as the zero - gravity driver's seat and standardizing the intelligent driving blue light. The highlight, the ES9, will officially hold a technology press conference on April 9. On the contrary, according to Li Bin, the new - generation ES7 will enter the market in the third quarter.

Regarding Le Dao, the L90 will first launch a lidar version, which will be sold in parallel with the pure - vision version. The L60 will complete its annual facelift and upgrade. The L80, which targets the large five - seater market, will also debut later.

Regarding Firefly, relying on the limited - edition special models and the gradual layout of the fifth - generation battery - swapping stations, it will continue to deepen its presence in the pure - electric small - car market.

So far, it can be said that NIO has basically "revealed its cards".

In my opinion, the most urgent task for this new - force automaker in 2026 is essentially to find the next best - selling model.

It must be admitted that the new - generation ES8 delivered 70,000 vehicles in just 160 days, which is indeed a remarkable miracle. It almost single - handedly enabled NIO to reach the threshold of quarterly profitability.

However, rationally and objectively speaking, this wave of popularity will eventually fade. Considering the actual situation in the past three months, the initial sales period of the new - generation ES8 is gradually passing. Considering its relatively high price and the competitive situation in the large six - seater market, it is difficult to maintain a stable monthly delivery volume of over 10,000 vehicles.

The emergence of this gap requires NIO to find new models to fill it.

So, will it be the ES9? Li Bin is full of expectations for this SUV flagship. During the live - stream, he strongly stated that it would be the best - selling model in its class.

If so, pricing is very important. The ET9, priced over 800,000 yuan, has little reference value. Closely following the new - generation ES8 might be the mission of the ES9.

However, even if it shows great sincerity, it still seems a bit unrealistic to rely on an SUV flagship, which is ultimately for a minority, to shoulder the heavy responsibility.

In contrast, I've always firmly believed that the success or failure of the L80 and the new - generation ES7 is the key "catalyst" for determining whether NIO can achieve a transformation and even fulfill Li Bin's promise of annual profitability.

Externally, the competition in the "large six - seater" market is extremely fierce, while the "large five - seater" market has opportunities. Internally, Le Dao, which has shown a decline recently, urgently needs to break the deadlock with new products. And NIO also needs someone to recapture the market lost by the ES6 and EC6.

More directly, only when the L80 and the new - generation ES7 form a "one - two punch" similar to the effect of the L90 and the new - generation ES8 in 2025 can NIO have a sufficient chance of winning.

Meanwhile, taking advantage of the facelift opportunity, the L60 really needs to abandon its hesitation and fight hard. In the mainstream mass market, it's all about close - quarter combat. Le Dao must find a completely different path from NIO.

As for Firefly, expanding into lower - tier markets and exploring overseas markets are also crucial. Don't use the positioning of pure - electric high - quality small cars as an excuse to "trap" itself in big cities.

In short, from NIO's perspective, since it has firmly chosen the multi - brand strategy, it should minimize internal strife and give full play to the synergy of the three brands, rather than fighting separately.

2026 will be a year to test the strategic foundation.

As for the main tone, it was set in an internal letter written by Li Bin earlier: "We will face stronger opponents, better products, more intense price wars, and a more complex public opinion environment. Every colleague should be fully mentally prepared, give up illusions, and face the challenges directly."

XPeng Should Understand a Truth

As usual, at the beginning of this section, let's first look at XPeng's report card.

In January, a total of 20,011 new vehicles were delivered, a year - on - year decrease of 34% and a month - on - month decrease of 46.6%. In February, a total of 15,256 new vehicles were delivered, with a year - on - year decline of 49.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 23.7%.

The situation is worse than expected. Whether we admit it or not, among the three "NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto", XPeng has become the most volatile one since entering 2026.

The reasons behind this are very complex. In my opinion, the biggest obstacle is the "positioning" choice. Different from NIO and Li Auto, which adopt a high - end strategy, the main models of XPeng on sale are mainly in the mainstream price range of 100,000 - 200,000 yuan.

Once there are any fluctuations in the market, this segment will inevitably be the most affected. Even though XPeng launched four new models in January and officially entered the so - called "one - car, dual - capabilities" era, it was still difficult to stop the downward trend.

In 2025, as the biggest best - selling model, the MONA M03 accounted for more than 40% of the terminal sales of this new - force automaker. Unfortunately, in the first two months of 2026, the shrinkage of the A - class sedan market is a foregone conclusion. XPeng is inevitably affected.

At this point, for the protagonist of this section, all that's left to think about calmly is how to break the deadlock. And the first answer it gives is the newly released intelligent driving system - the second - generation VLA.

In the past, "strong intelligent driving" has always been a key label firmly attached to XPeng and also its golden signboard for selling cars. However, in the past two years, with the entry of oligopolies like Huawei and the efforts of many top suppliers, its first - mover advantage has been gradually wiped out.

Fortunately, at this week's press conference, we can feel that this new - force automaker is regaining confidence.

Regarding the advancement of the second - generation VLA, He Xiaopeng directly stated in an interview: "Through our internal comparative tests, I think it is nearly five times ahead of the first - class players in the industry, whether in terms of approach rate, smoothness, or the supported range."

In 2026, it is crucial for XPeng to firmly occupy the consumers' minds in this dimension again.

Of course, this is just the first step of a long journey. The bigger challenge it needs to solve is to sort out its product matrix clearly and determine which models are the main attackers and which are the auxiliary ones.

For some reason, from the current situation, XPeng seems to be developing towards the "car - sea strategy" again. Coupled with the increasing number of SKUs, it has greatly increased the decision - making difficulty for potential customers. You know, not focusing and spreading the net widely are big taboos in the industry.

XPeng has stumbled because of this before. I sincerely hope it won't fall in the same place twice.

Judging from the current spoilers, the key to new product launches in 2026 is basically concentrated in the SUV segment. The large 6 - seater SUV named "GX", the full - size flagship SUV with the code "G02", and among the MONA series, the mid - size SUV with the code "D02" and the compact SUV with the code "D03".

These form the "driving force" for this new - force automaker to achieve its annual sales target of 550,000 - 600,000 vehicles. It's certain that XPeng has realized its own shortcomings.

In 2025, it was one of the few automakers that sold more sedans than SUVs. In the Chinese auto market where consumers obviously prefer the latter, it was indeed a bit embarrassing.

In the future, XPeng needs to understand a profound truth: "In today's consumers' car - buying decision - making, intelligent features still play a complementary role. In contrast, accurate product definition and an excellent brand image undoubtedly account for a higher proportion."

In 2026, this new - force automaker still has a lot of lessons to learn in the latter two aspects.

Li Auto Faces a Battle for Redemption

If we had to use one word to describe Li Auto's performance in 2025, my answer would be - below expectations.

The most direct evidence is that its delivery volume barely exceeded 400,000 vehicles. It became the only brand among the "NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto" with a "negative growth" year - on - year. As an industry - recognized "model student", Li Auto clearly slowed down.

So, what's the crux of the problem?

As analyzed in previous review articles: On the one hand, it's definitely because the extended - range segment was under attack on both fronts, and the loss of the L series had a huge impact on its sales volume. On the other hand, although the i series was postponed for a year, when entering the pure - electric track, it still seemed hesitant and lacked determination. The wavering of the i8 after its launch was a typical example.

Soon, Li Auto made major adjustments to the subsequent i6, showing sufficient sincerity. However, because it was launched too late, it was difficult for it to reverse the whole - year decline single - handedly. And the battery recall of the 2024 MEGA gave it another heavy blow.

Anyway, throughout 2025, this new - force automaker seemed to be in a "bad luck" phase. Looking deeper, it also exposed the team's poor performance when facing a difficult situation.

In fact, the reason why Li Auto was so successful in the past was all because of its temporary lead in product definition. The first - generation L9 indeed launched the era of large six - seater SUVs in the Chinese auto market.