BYD takes aim at NIO

On the evening of March 5th in Shenzhen, at the BYD press conference site.

Wang Chuanfu, the chairman of BYD, stood on the stage, and a set of numbers lit up on the screen behind him:

At room temperature, it only takes 5 minutes to charge the battery from 10% to 70%, and only 9 minutes from 10% to 97%. In an extremely cold environment of -30°C, it only takes 12 minutes to charge from 20% to 97%. The range of the Denza Z9GT reaches 1,036 kilometers, and the EV version of the Datang also has a range of 950 kilometers.

He said excitedly, "Let the days when electric cars struggle to cross the Shanhaiguan Pass become history forever."

This statement was aimed at users in the north, but another group of people might feel even more uncomfortable.

NIO.

1. The moat of battery swapping has been breached

NIO's battery swapping model was born to solve the pain point of slow charging.

In June 2018, NIO built the world's first battery swapping station in the Nanshan Science and Technology Park in Shenzhen. At that time, there were very few public charging piles, and the fast - charging power was generally around 60kW. It took more than an hour to fully charge a car.

Li Bin, the founder of NIO, proposed a 3 - minute battery swapping solution, which was almost the only way to make the experience of pure electric cars comparable to refueling.

This strategy really worked.

As of February 2026, NIO had built 3,729 battery swapping stations, with a cumulative investment of over 18 billion yuan. The battery swapping service had been completed more than 100 million times in total, and the daily average battery swapping exceeded 100,000 times. For NIO owners, battery swapping is not only a way to replenish energy but also a symbol of status. You are driving a car that doesn't need to wait for charging.

But now, BYD claims that it can charge from 10% to 70% in 5 minutes and from 10% to 97% in 9 minutes. Although there is still a gap compared to refueling, the time difference with battery swapping has been reduced to almost negligible.

What's more fatal is the low - temperature environment. The northern market has always been a "forbidden zone" for electric vehicles, and the battery swapping model also faces the problem of reduced battery activity in low - temperature conditions.

NIO owners still need to think twice before going to Northeast China in winter. Now, the second - generation blade battery can charge from 20% to 97% in 12 minutes in an extremely cold environment of -30°C. This is equivalent to directly poaching NIO's potential users in the northern market in advance.

Of course, BYD has also built flash - charging piles. The peak power of a single pile is 1,500kW, and 4,239 flash - charging stations have been built. It plans to build 20,000 stations this year. Among them, 18,000 medium - sized flash - charging stations will cover 90% of the urban area within a 5 - kilometer radius, and 2,000 high - speed flash - charging stations will cover nearly one - third of highway service areas.

This is a complete energy replenishment system: Faster batteries + a denser charging pile network.

Although NIO has built 3,729 battery swapping stations, how much of an advantage can it maintain in the face of this combination?

When users see on the mobile map that there is both a battery swapping station and a flash - charging station within 3 kilometers nearby, and they have to wait in line for a battery at the NIO battery swapping station (the battery reserve at NIO's battery swapping stations is limited), while they can fully charge and leave in 9 minutes at the flash - charging pile, which option will they choose?

2. NIO's defense is not just about battery swapping

NIO is of course not unprepared.

Just one week before BYD released its new battery, NIO quietly completed an independent financing round for its chip subsidiary, Shenji Technology, with an amount of 2.257 billion yuan. The post - investment valuation was nearly 10 billion yuan.

The investors in this round include many industrial capitals such as Hefei State - owned Assets Investment, Hefei Haiheng, IDG Capital, SMIC Juyuan, and Yuanhe Puhua. This investment led by Hefei's state - owned assets is regarded as NIO's last line of defense in the underlying technologies of intelligent driving.

The core product of Shenji, the NX9031, is a 5nm automotive - grade intelligent driving chip. It was taped out and put into production in 2024 and was first installed in NIO's flagship model, the ET9, in March 2025. Subsequently, it will be applied to all new NIO models, such as the new - generation ES8. Its actual computing power is about four times that of NVIDIA's Orin - X, and more than 150,000 units have been shipped in total.

Li Bin calculated an account: After the application of self - developed chips, the cost per vehicle can be optimized by about 10,000 yuan.

This is actually NIO's answer to another question: If the advantage in energy replenishment is weakened, what else do you have?

The answer is: Self - developed chips, intelligentization, and user experience.

NIO is trying to expand its moat from a single battery - swapping model to a combination of "chips + software + services". The financing of Shenji marks that NIO has started to transform its core components from a cost center into an independent business, and it may even supply products to the outside world in the future.

But can this hedge against the impact of BYD's fast - charging technology? It's difficult in the short term.

Chips solve the problem of intelligent driving experience, while energy replenishment solves the most basic user anxiety. Users won't accept slow charging just because the chips are powerful. In the priority of user decision - making, fast charging always comes before fast computing.

NIO itself has also realized this.

According to media reports, in the internal discussion of Shenji's financing, an executive said bluntly: Chips can help us save money, but they can't help us attract new users. When new users buy a car, their first question is still about range and charging.

3. Good sales of the ES8 don't mean there is no crisis

NIO's delivery data in February this year was actually not bad: 20,797 units, a year - on - year increase of 57.6%.

The new ES8 delivered 11,260 units in a single month, setting a new record for this model. It accounted for more than 54%, and the cumulative delivery has exceeded 70,000 units.

When the 70,000th ES8 was delivered in Wenzhou, NIO held a small celebration ceremony. The ES8 is still a star model among high - end pure - electric SUVs and has snatched many users from BMW, Mercedes - Benz, and Audi.

However, the LeDao brand delivered 2,981 units, and the Firefly brand delivered 2,657 units that month, totaling 5,638 units, accounting for only 27.1%. These two sub - brands, which were highly anticipated, have not yet formed a scale effect.

What's even more worrying is the change in the average price per vehicle. In order to boost sales, NIO had to lower the price in the third quarter of 2025. The average price per vehicle dropped from 270,000 yuan in the same period of 2024 to 220,500 yuan, a decrease of nearly 50,000 yuan.

Although increasing sales by reducing prices has increased the revenue on the books, it has directly reduced the profit margin.

On the night before BYD's press conference, on the evening of March 4th, NIO released its financial report for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025. The data showed that the company achieved adjusted operating profit (Non - GAAP) for the first time in that quarter, with the amount ranging from 720 million yuan to 1.18 billion yuan. This is the first time in 11 years since NIO was founded that it has achieved operating profit on the quarterly books.

It is indeed worth celebrating.

But looking closely, the three driving forces for profitability are sales growth, product portfolio optimization, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The battery - swapping business itself is not included in the profit accounting, and it is still a cost center.

In order to pursue sales, NIO is implementing an aggressive multi - brand sinking strategy. The LeDao brand is priced below 300,000 yuan, and the Firefly brand is positioned even lower. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the sales of NIO's main brand accounted for 54%, and the LeDao and Firefly brands together contributed 46% of the sales.

This strategy has diluted the high - end image that NIO was once proud of.

When NIO has to compete head - to - head with Xiaomi, XPeng, and Zeekr in the 200,000 - yuan - level market, how long can the brand premium last?

4. Which path will go further?

BYD and NIO represent two different philosophies of energy replenishment.

BYD focuses on making charging faster. Its idea is to perfect the battery so that users don't need battery swapping. This is a path of technological involution, narrowing the gap with refueling by continuously iterating battery performance.

NIO focuses on building a battery - swapping network. Its idea is that since the battery can't be perfected, use the network to make up for it. This is a path of service expansion, establishing an experience barrier through a heavy - asset layout of battery - swapping stations and 3 - minute battery swapping.

Behind these two philosophies are two different business logics.

BYD's battery technology can be sold to any car manufacturer. After the release of the second - generation blade battery, many brands have been in talks to purchase it. The benefits of technological breakthroughs can be spread through the supply chain, benefiting the entire industry.

NIO's battery - swapping network currently mainly serves three brands: NIO, LeDao, and Firefly. In March 2025, CATL reached a strategic cooperation with NIO, planning to introduce its "chocolate battery - swapping" standard to the Firefly brand and making a strategic investment of 2.5 billion yuan in NIO Energy.

But in November 2025, Li Bin clearly stated that the Firefly brand will only be compatible with NIO's fifth - generation battery - swapping stations and will not be connected to CATL's battery - swapping system. The core reason is that the battery liquid - cooling and air - cooling technology paths of the two are incompatible. In the end, NIO still chose a closed battery - swapping ecosystem centered around its own three brands, using its own cars to swap its own batteries.

However, the emergence of BYD's second - generation blade battery has for the first time truly challenged NIO's moat.

When the charging time approaches the battery - swapping time, will users still queue up for battery swapping to save a few minutes? NIO conducted an internal survey. If the ultra - fast charging technology makes a breakthrough and can charge 1,000 kilometers in 15 minutes, the time advantage of battery swapping will disappear, and even the selling point of battery upgrades may be weakened.

NIO's choice is to fight on two fronts. On one hand, it will upgrade its battery - swapping network, building 1,000 more stations in 2026, and the total number of battery - swapping stations will exceed 4,700 by the end of the year. On the other hand, it will self - develop chips to build a technological moat.

But both fronts require a lot of money, and NIO's asset - liability ratio is still high, with total liabilities approaching 100 billion yuan. As of the third quarter of 2025, NIO's cash reserve was 36.7 billion yuan.

What's more fatal is that the cost of the battery - swapping network is still rising. As of early March 2026, NIO had built 3,753 battery - swapping stations, with a cumulative investment of over 18 billion yuan in charging and battery - swapping infrastructure. The average full - scale cost per station (including batteries) is nearly 5 million yuan.

Although the daily average battery - swapping has exceeded 100,000 times, the battery - swapping business is still a cost center rather than a profit center. In the attribution analysis of NIO's official profit forecast, the three driving factors clearly listed by the official are sales growth, product portfolio optimization, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement, but there is no mention of the contribution of the battery - swapping network.

5. 2026: The make - or - break year for battery swapping

2026 is a crucial year.

For NIO, it needs to accomplish two major things this year:

First, achieve Non - GAAP profit for the whole year;

Second, transform the battery - swapping network from a cost center into a profit center.

There are signs for the first thing. The single - quarter profit in Q4 of 2025 proves that NIO has the ability to generate profits, but to achieve annual profit, it still needs to get through the traditional off - season in the first quarter of 2026. Li Bin promised to achieve annual profit in 2026 at the 2025 Q3 earnings conference, and now it depends on execution.

The second thing is even more difficult. For the battery - swapping business model to work, there must be enough scale to spread the heavy - asset costs.

NIO currently has a daily average of 100,000 battery swaps. On average, for the 3,729 stations, each station has about 27 battery swaps per day. The industry - estimated break - even point is usually 60 - 80 times per day. This means that although the total number of battery swaps has exceeded 100 million, most battery - swapping stations are still in a state of diseconomies of scale, where the more stations are built, the more losses are incurred.

Meanwhile, the transformation of the technological route is threatening the future of the battery - swapping model.

As the 900V high - voltage fast - charging technology promoted by XPeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, and even NIO itself is gradually popularized, if charging for 10 minutes can provide a range of 500 kilometers becomes the standard, the fast - swapping advantage of battery swapping will be greatly weakened.

By then, the 3,729 battery - swapping stations built at a high cost may turn from a moat into a quagmire that drags down the cash flow.

NIO is not unaware of this risk. The financing of the Shenji chip, the multi - brand layout, and the plan to build 1,000 more battery - swapping stations in 2026 are all its efforts to widen its moat.

But the question is, when the technological breakthrough of the opponent directly impacts your foundation, is it too late to widen the moat?

[Beyond the Page] Words:

The "stab" that BYD has given to NIO is not a sudden sneak attack but a natural result of technological iteration.

Six years ago, the first - generation blade battery brought lithium iron phosphate back to the mainstream stage, and BYD established a technological barrier with its cost advantage. Six years later, the second - generation blade battery returns with 5 - minute fast charging, this time targeting NIO's most core battery - swapping model.

The answer to the battle between battery swapping and fast charging may be revealed in 2026.

For NIO, this is both the best of times and the worst of times. The good thing is that it is finally on the verge of making a profit, but the bad thing is that the opponent's knife is already at its throat.

In the new - energy vehicle race, there has never been a moat that can last forever. The speed of technological iteration is faster than anyone can imagine. Battery swapping was once ridiculed as a heavy - asset trap, and now fast charging is making the advantage of battery swapping precarious.

Business is like this. There is always someone who will present you with a new test when you are at your most successful.